bluewave

Another study on how aerosol reduction is leading to more warming than originally forecast by some climate models.

My guess is that this persistent trough near the Northeast is related to the +IOD creating a MJO 2 type pattern.

A recent paper was just published on this remarkable warming in the North Pacific SST patterns since the 2014 marine heatwave. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078 The fundamental result of this study is that the first EOF of SST in the North Pacific has changed starting in 2014. For more than 20 years, the PDO has been used to describe the state of the North Pacific. However, since the marine heatwave of 2014, there have been remarkable changes to the dominant mode of SST in the North Pacific. The spatial pattern of the first EOF of SST from 1950 to 2021 is notably different from the PDO, suggesting that though the PDO served as a useful metric of SST variations until 2014 (Johnstone & Mantua, 2014), it may no longer be as effective a climate index for the North Pacific. From 1950 until the 2014 MHW, the first EOF remained consistent in its proportion of positive and negative regions with both taking up roughly half the area of the North Pacific (and with the positive region taken to be the eastern Pacific). When EOFs are calculated from 1950 to endpoints after 2014, the first EOF has a maximum positive region covering 77% of the North Pacific, with a PC indicating the largest anomalies on record. These changes to the first EOF/PC of North Pacific SST are nothing short of remarkable. In concert with these changes, the second EOF/PC of SST has also undergone profound evolution since 2014. This second EOF now accounts for approximately 18% of the variability, growing from 13% during the 1950–2013 period. The spatial structure of the second EOF now is positive over almost the entire basin, with a PC that has grown strongly positive in the last several years. Thus, the second EOF/PC describes warming over much of the Pacific not in the positive lobe of the first EOF.

Data for March 1, 2024 through April 13, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation CARMEL 4N COOP 11.49 BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 8.79 Data for March 1, 2024 through April 13, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 14.02 FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 13.87 PUTNAM LAKE COOP 13.84 STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 13.53 IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 12.70 NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 12.58 NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 12.44 NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 12.31 SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 11.90 BRIDGEPORT 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 11.84 RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 11.44 NEW CANAAN 3.8 N CoCoRaHS 11.37 DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 11.11 NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.76 BETHEL 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.72 RIDGEFIELD 3.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.41 DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 10.39 RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 10.34 BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.30 DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 10.29 BETHEL 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 10.09 BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.85 DANBURY COOP 9.29

15.00” of rain this spring in spots is really impressive by April 15th considering the regional average for the whole spring (MAM) is around 12.00”. Data for March 1, 2024 through April 13, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 15.90 NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 15.25 NY ST. JAMES COOP 15.16 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 14.24 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 14.21 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 14.20 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 14.09 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 14.05 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 14.01 CT GUILFORD COOP 14.00 NJ HARRISON COOP 13.97 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 13.88 NY CENTERPORT COOP 13.87 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 13.86 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 13.85 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 13.85

Addressing the issue is going to need creative solutions which aim to make life easier for the inhabitants of our societies across the globe and which appeal to their higher aspirations. So far we have heard from the politicians and world leaders how the average person needs to sacrifice to bring about changes. This is being done by individuals with giant carbon footprints in private jets who may mean well but have no idea the financial struggles and challenges that the average person faces on a daily basis. We knew the original idea being promoted for years was a non starter right out of the gate of levying a carbon tax which would inevitably be passed on to individuals. People need relief from the high costs of life not more economic stress. Countries like Germany have seen their electric rates shoot through the roof due to the high cost of trying to upgrade the grid to renewables which is extremely expensive. Instead of keeping their nuclear plants open they have now turned to coal to meet their additional energy needs. In this country there are many that in theory who want renewable energy. But once a large installation is proposed in their area they reject it. These installations take up large swaths of land and the local residents have moved to block them. Plus the current inflationary economy makes renewables less competitive since they were designed for a lower inflation environment. This is why their stock prices has been falling recently. Along with the cancellation of projects due to the higher costs. Renewables like wind and solar also take a long time to scale up and have the issue of being intermittent. So it’s no surprise that that the fossil fuels share of the energy mix still remains constant across the globe and has not dropped. Countries in Europe have demonstrated that nuclear has scaled up more quickly than wind and solar. But there has been too much resistance to nuclear over the years. We now have next generation nuclear which is much safer. So there is no need to wait for fusion to become viable. That could still take another 15-30 years. I see government plans to transition from internal combustion engine cars to electric vehicles. But electric vehicles like Teslas are very expensive to the average consumer who is currently economically stressed due to the high rate of costs and inflation. These are niche items for the more affluent who own their own homes with chargers. We still don’t have enough charging infrastructure for the majority of people who are apartment dwellers in big cities. Plus the grid is nowhere near the level needed to sustain a large vehicle electrification project. China has taken a different approach with mass producing EVs for only 10,000 which would be affordable to the average citizen. But there are some who want to block the entry of these vehicles into our market. The contradictions coming out of China are very notable. On one hand they have become the greatest emitter of co2 due to their rapid expansion of coal plants. But they are also working on EV technology at a fast rate and look to end up dominating the world market. So there is no way the planet is going to reduce carbon emissions without China experiencing a rapid transformation first. For all our issues in this country, we still have managed to lower our emissions somewhat. We have been using more natural gas which greatly reduces mortality and disease from air pollution. China could take a cue for us here since it along with India has some of the worst air pollution in the world.

Your views are based on the way you want the world to work and not how it currently works. I also have a soft spot for that sentiment since I think we could be doing so much more collectively across the world on a whole host of issues. Society needs to have things demonstrated to them first before they are willing to make big changes in the way they do things. Scientists are missing the fact that societies are more reactive than proactive. And climate change involves being proactive in order to avoid the worst outcomes as the climate continues to rapidly warm. Big changes in society have historically happened after major catalyzing events. But on numerous occasions these events were well forecast by people who were paying attention to the signs. So I am sure climate change will be no different. We have been conditioned by experience to react to immediate threats in the here and now and not what could eventually happen in the future. Don’t be surprised it it takes the beginning of a break up in the WAIS and much faster seas level rises than we have seen for climate change to rise to the top of many nations list of priorities. My guess is that a sudden rise of sea levels in a relatively short period of time will get all the countries of the worlds attention. But we are not at that point yet. Money is just another form of abundance in life. So it’s the currency that value across the globe is measured by. It’s a form of exchange that represents our current level of advancement. I am sure there are probably much more evolved civilizations out there in the universe where money isn’t such a dominant feature like on our planet. But we haven’t reached that level just yet. So climate change is going to need to start costing societies so much that collectively we all decide that we need to change the way we order our economies and societies. It would be great if we currently had some technology that could speed up the transition away from fossil fuels. But energy transitions throughout history have been slow. I don’t think that we can rely on government bodies to protect us from an increasingly more volatile climate. My focus on adaptation is based on the individual making informed choices on how to best navigate this change in climate. I don’t expect any government body to do it for us. So my focus is raising awareness of these climate issues so the individual can make their own best informed decisions.

The evolution 2020-2023 triple dip La Niña was different from 1998-2001 in several ways. First, this most recent one didn’t follow a very strong to super El Niño event. Second, it was driven more by the stronger SST contrast from the WPAC to EPAC leading to stronger trade winds. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023JD038843#:~:text=Subsurface cooling in the equatorial,SST) contrast along the equator. This study compares the evolution of atmospheric and oceanic anomalies as well as predictions for the two most recent triple-dip La Niña events in 1998–2001 and 2020–2023. Subsurface cooling in the equatorial Pacific was stronger and more persistent during 1998–2001. In contrast, surface easterly winds were stronger during 2020–2023 as was the east-west sea surface temperature (SST) contrast along the equator. We argue that in the absence of appreciable equatorial Pacific heat discharge, persistent and strong surface trade winds and a strengthened mean zonal SST contrast across the tropical Pacific contributed to the development of the 2020–2023 triple-dip La Niña. In terms of the subsurface layer heat budget, the growth and maintenance of unusually cold SSTs during the triple-dip La Niña in 1998–2001 were mainly the result of ocean vertical entrainment and diffusion, as well as meridional advection, associated with enhanced equatorial upwelling; while for the triple-dip La Niña in 2020–2023, zonal advection was the largest contributor. The two events were mostly well predicted by multi-model averages at 1–8 months lead times. We hypothesize that mean state change with enhanced zonal SST contrast and trade winds over the last several decades altered the physical processes associated with the growth and maintenance of the most recent La Niña, affecting its predictability. Successful prediction in real-time of the 2020–2023 event more than half a year in advance was surprising because there was little memory in oceanic heat content which is often considered a key predictor. Key Points The physical processes responsible for the evolution of the 1998–2001 and 2020–2023 triple-dip La Niñas were different Ocean heat content as a precursor was more important for the predictability of the 1998–2001 La Niña than the 2020–2023 La Niña Stronger surface easterlies and zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the equatorial Pacific contributed to the predictability of the 2020–2023 La Niña Plain Language Summary El Niño-Southern Oscillation is the strongest interannual variability on Earth and the main source of global seasonal climate predictability. Here, we examine the evolution of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies in the tropical Pacific during two triple-dip La Niñas in 1998–2001 and 2020–2023, comparing the physical processes that gave rise to them and the skill in predicting them. Our results show that the processes giving rise to these events were different and likely affected by mean state changes in the tropical Pacific. In particular, the easterly trade winds and zonal SST contrast across the basin have strengthened that played a crucial role in the growth, maintenance, and prediction of the La Niña in 2020–2023. The evolution of the La Niña in 2020–2023 was successfully predicted in real-time more than half a year in advance, which is surprising because there was little memory in oceanic heat content which is often considered a key predictor.

90° days have been on the increase with numerous top 10 years since 2010. But the higher dewpoints are allowing the 70° minimums to increase at a faster rate.

While it still looks like generally warmer weather next week than we have seen recently, it may not get quite as warm as models were indicating a few days ago. As we can often see this time of year, back doors have a way of popping up the closer in we get to a forecast period. New run stronger backdoor nearby Old run weaker backdoor

That’s why we probably need to put more focus on adaptation to a warmer climate that we have built our civilization on to date. But it becomes a sticky issue since the topic of money is involved. Increasing extreme weather events are costly to society for numerous reasons including more expensive property reinsurance which directly affects the insurance rates consumers pay. It’s great that we have developed early weather detection methods which save more lives. But the increasing cost burden of a more extreme climate is difficult since the topic of money gets processed through a more polarized societal filter due to the introduction of politics. Plus forced migrations throughout history due to extremes such as droughts or heat have been proven to add a destabilizing factor to societal systems. Can’t even imagine what a future scramble will look like when coastal cities eventually become uninhabitable due to rising sea levels. This is not to say that we can’t find ways to adapt since we are such a clever species. But it may very well come with a steep price tag.

I hear you. Sometimes press releases are written in a way that doesn’t always directly relate to the valid points that you mention.

There seems to be a few issues at hand here not expressly stated In this most recent debate. First, an acceleration of global warming makes it unlikely that we will be able to cap warming at +1.5C or perhaps even +2.0C. Some scientists believe this could cause people to give up on finding possible solutions if we already surpassed this level. It’s one of the risks that the climate community took when targeting specific temperature level like +1.5C in all these reports put out over the years. Second, faster warming could cause some to doubt the climate models in general which make some scientists uneasy since they have come to rely so heavily on them. But even if the answer lies somewhere in the middle between Hansen and others, any acceleration of the warming rate is problematic in a world where we are still so reliant on fossil fuels to drive out current civilization.

I didn’t say that pre-1950 ENSO data wasn’t reliable. Just that we have more complete monitoring since then. There was more missing data the further back closer to 1900 and the late 1800s. So estimates and reconstructions were employed. I am not sure why you make such a point about the term unprecedented since it was the first such event since 1950 when we have more complete data. Plus it seems a bit peculiar to make point about the way a word is used rather than the actual substance of the study.

It was unprecedented since it’s the first satellite and modern bouy era 3 year La Nina to follow an ENSO neutral to borderline weak El Niño peaking at only +0.5 in 19-20. You will notice that the ones in the late 90s and early to mid 70s followed much stronger El Niños. The reliability of the 1908 to 1910 event isn’t as strong as the modern era since we didn’t have all the observation tools we have today. https://research.noaa.gov/2023/11/07/recent-triple-dip-la-nina-upends-current-understanding-of-enso/#:~:text=“There were parts of the,leading to food security issues What caused the 2020–2023 triple-dip La Niña? Triple-dip La Niñas are not new, with particularly strong ones occurring in 1973–1976 and 1998–2001. However, these two previous events developed in the wake of especially strong El Niños, which were thought to be precursors for triple-dip La Niñas. The leading theory was that strong El Niños cause a significant loss of heat from the equatorial Pacific Ocean to the atmosphere and to higher latitudes, leaving a large ocean heat deficit that can take years to recover. However, the 2020–2023 La Niña was unique in that it did not follow a strong El Niño, causing researchers to reevaluate current understanding of how these extended La Niñas develop.

It will be interesting to see the long term increase of the WPAC warm pool leads to this becoming another multiyear La Niña event. https://www.soest.hawaii.edu/soestwp/announce/news/long-lasting-la-nina-more-common/#:~:text=Multiyear La Niña events have,an unprecedented triple-year event. Multiyear La Niña events have become more common over the last 100 years, according to a new study led by University of Hawai‘i (UH) at Mānoa atmospheric scientist Bin Wang. Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted more than one year, including an unprecedented triple-year event. The study was published this week in Nature Climate Change. “The clustering of multiyear La Niña events is phenomenal given that only ten such events have occurred since 1920,” said Bin Wang, emeritus professor of atmospheric sciences in the UH Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology. El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific, affect weather and ocean conditions, which can, in turn, influence the marine environment and fishing industry in Hawai‘i and throughout the Pacific Ocean. Long-lasting La Niñas could cause persistent climate extremes and devastating weather events, affecting community resilience, tourist industry and agriculture. Determining why so many multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common has sparked worldwide discussion among climate scientists, yet answers remain elusive. Looking to past events for clues Wang and co-authors examined 20 La Niña events from 1920-2022 to investigate the fundamental reasons behind the historic change of the multiyear La Niña. Some long-lasting La Niñas occurred after a super El Niño, which the researchers expected due to the massive discharge of heat from the upper-ocean following an El Niño. However, three recent multiyear La Niña episodes (2007–08, 2010–11, and 2020–22) did not follow this pattern. They discovered these events are fueled by warming in the western Pacific Ocean and steep gradients in sea surface temperature from the western to central Pacific. “Warming in the western Pacific triggers the rapid onset and persistence of these events,” said Wang. “Additionally, our study revealed that multiyear La Niña are distinguished from single-year La Niña by a conspicuous onset rate, which foretells its accumulative intensity and climate impacts.” Results from complex computer simulations of climate support the observed link between multiyear La Niña events and western Pacific warming. Preparing for the future The new findings shed light on the factors conducive to escalating extreme La Niña in a future warming world. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse impacts on communities around the globe, if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific. “Our perception moves beyond the current notion that links extreme El Niño and La Niña to the eastern Pacific warming and attributes the increasing extreme El Niño and La Niña to different sources,” Wang added. “The knowledge gained from our study offers emergent constraints to reduce the uncertainties in projecting future changes of extreme La Niña, which may help us better prepare for what lies ahead.”

Maybe Hansen and Simons will turn out to be correct about marine aerosol reductions having a greater influence on climate than earlier models had shown.

Even with all the clouds and rain so far this month, NYC was still able to go +1.5 for April 1st through 10th.

The Euro has a MJO 2,+IOD ,La Niña, record Atlantic SST summer with a ridge over the Rockies and Northeast undercut by a trough to our SW. So above average temperatures, dewpoints, and rainfall. The MJO 2 is also very active for tropical storms and hurricanes.

The current forecasts have it more neutral by fall.

The updated information incorporating a possible +IOD and La Niña with record Atlantic SSTs shows how active the hurricane season can be if all the pieces come together.

Widespread 0.5 to 1.5 with localized higher amounts.

Good question since we usually don’t see record SSTs in the NW Indian Ocean and a +IOD during developing La Ninas.

Yeah, it’s a nice improvement on next weeks forecast from a week ago. New run Old run

Looks mostly like a spring elevated convective event now focused during Thursday night. Good MUCAPE and near record PWATS will probably result in some locally heavy downpours. So more of a spring-like feel than our other recent storms which were big washouts.