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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    Yeah, it’s probably related in some way to the many marine heatwaves across the planet right now. The Euro shifts back to cooler and wetter again from Memorial Day into the start of June. So no pattern change showing up just yet. May 27 to June 3 EPS forecast
  2. bluewave
    We got a south based blocking pattern in the summer of 2020 which was really wet so it held the 90° days down at Newark.
  3. bluewave
    The blocking pattern became more south based over the winter which featured the record warmth.
  4. bluewave
    This record blocking pattern near Hudson Bay has been in place since last May. It’s why we had a cooler summer last year. The only extended warmth with this pattern has been during the winter when it linked up with the Southeast ridge. So we need to see this pattern weaken in order to finally get some extended summer warmth. All the warm ups since March 20th have lasted a few days before more rains and onshore flow. Also notice how this pattern has resulted in the only cool spot in the Atlantic sea of record warmth has been to our east. https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1793089595552456781
  5. bluewave
    It was their warmest winter on record followed by the warmest spring so far. Time Series Summary for WATERTOWN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to May 20 Missing Count 1 2024-05-20 38.1 0 2 2012-05-20 37.0 0 3 1998-05-20 35.5 0 - 1953-05-20 35.5 2 4 2023-05-20 34.8 0 - 2002-05-20 34.8 0 5 1991-05-20 34.6 1 6 2016-05-20 34.2 0 7 2017-05-20 34.1 0 8 2013-05-20 34.0 1 9 1952-05-20 33.5 2 10 2021-05-20 33.1 2 11 2020-05-20 33.0 0 12 2010-05-20 32.9 2
  6. bluewave
    The record heat stayed to our north today. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 0442 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2024 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT WATERTOWN NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES WAS SET AT WATERTOWN NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 83 DEGREES SET IN 2022.
  7. bluewave
    Just enough SE flow today for POU to beat EWR. THE POUGHKEEPSIE NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 21 2024... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1931 TO 2024 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 88 2:57 PM 95 1941 73 15 71 1996 MINIMUM 57 5:00 AM 29 2002 49 8 49 AVERAGE 73 61 12 60 THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 21 2024... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2024 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 87 244 PM 96 1996 74 13 75 MINIMUM 58 514 AM 42 1950 55 3 57 2002 AVERAGE 73 65 8 66
  8. bluewave
    The big block this month near Hudson Bay continues to be a factor in the long range forecast. Low pressure begins crossing the Great Lakes as we head into Memorial Day. It could potentially slow down and cutoff next week near the Northeast.
  9. bluewave
    There are several issues that get mixed together. First, the global temperatures didn’t really begin to rise at a faster pace until emissions started accelerating around 1980. Large US urban centers like Philly haven’t seen that much expansion of the heat island in the downtown areas since then. This is why the NWS office in Mount Holly outside the Philly city heat island has seen the same amount of temperature rise since they moved out there in 1994 as the Philadelphia International airport. So all the rise over this period is due to the big global temperature increase. There are areas in China with new cities that have been built since 1980 so they get have a compound issue of global warming and heat island expansion. There are some US cities in the SW like Phoenix and Las Vegas that have seen major population booms and also have heat island expansion and global warming. Our part of the country has had major urbanization for over 100 years and city center populations have leveled off. Second, there are UHI studies that solely focus on satellite pavement temperatures and not the 2m temperatures the meteorological community looks at. So those very big 12° to 20° differences cited are the actual ground temp and not the cooler 2m temps. Sometimes the city and countryside can be more than 10° apart on nights with radiational cooling. But this effect has been consistent for nearly 100 years or more around our big cities so it’s nothing new. What’s new is the acceleration of global temperatures since 1980.
  10. bluewave
    Yeah, the warmest days this spring so far found a way to miss the weekends as expected. Probably not the pattern the beach vendors and concessions want to see. But this is what happened last summer also with cooler and damp weekends. Warmest days at Newark this spring 4-15…83°…Monday 4-29…86°…Monday 5-2….90°… Thursday 5-7…..83°… Tuesday 5-8…..89°…Wednesday
  11. bluewave
    Euro has some scattered showers on Saturday. So this would make it every spring weekend since the beginning of March with at least some measurable rain. Then we’ll have to see if that more organized area of low pressure develops for Memorial Day. Hopefully, the Euro is overdone on the rainfall amounts but at least some rain is possible. Still time for Monday to come into better focus on later runs. Newark and other stations have had at least a T of rain on every weekend this spring so far. May 18-19…..0.04 May 11-12…0.38 May 4-5…..0.31 Apr 27-28…0.11 Apr 20-21…0.05 Apr 13-14…0.04 Apr 6-7…….T Mar 30-31…0.01 Mar 23-24….3.10 Mar 16-17…..T Mar 9-10….1.46 Mar 2-3…..1.31
  12. bluewave
    The continuing Hudson Bay block did a good job this month keeping the record subtropical ridge and heat from Central America to Florida from expanding northward. So we are getting a back and forth between warm ups and cool downs but no record heat. Also one of the few times such a strong -PNA occurred with a mean trough near the East Coast.
  13. bluewave
    Anniversary of the warmest spring day on record around NYC Metro back in 1996. Deep WNW flow all the way out to Islip ahead of the sea breeze front. This was back in the days before these onshore flow patterns with high pressure east of New England began increasing. It’s ironic that our warmest spring day on record nearly reaching 100° occurred after the greatest winter on record for snow lovers. We also had one of our coolest summers after that. It was the last year with under 10 days reaching 90° at Newark. Data for May 20, 1996 through May 20, 1996 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 NY MINEOLA 1 NE COOP 99 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 98 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 98 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 97 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 97 NY MINEOLA COOP 97 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 97 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 97 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 97 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 97 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 96 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 96 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 96 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 96 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 95 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 95 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 95 NY WEST POINT COOP 95 NY WEST NYACK COOP 95 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Mar through May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1996 98 0 2 1987 95 0 - 1969 95 0 3 2002 94 0 4 2022 93 0 - 1986 93 0 5 2010 92 0 - 1992 92 0 - 1991 92 0
  14. bluewave
    Yeah, temperatures should peak midweek before the cold front arrives. Places like Newark could reach 90° if the flow goes more SSW instead of the current SSE forecast with the slight bend in the streamlines. Best bet to reach 90° is probably in Central NJ away from the sea breeze. Plus areas from Albany to New Hampshire could reach 90° since sea breezes won’t be an issue there. Even your area on the North Shore could get into the 80s. Looks like a step down in temperatures as the stronger onshore flow returns by Memorial Day.
  15. bluewave
    While it’s too early to do a rainfall or clouds potential forecast for Memorial Day, looks like we could see more onshore flow with high pressure anchored east of New England.
  16. bluewave
    Newark and other stations have had at least a T of rain on every weekend this spring so far. May 18-19…..0.04 May 11-12…0.38 May 4-5…..0.31 Apr 27-28…0.11 Apr 20-21…0.05 Apr 13-14…0.04 Apr 6-7…….T Mar 30-31…0.01 Mar 23-24….3.10 Mar 16-17…..T Mar 9-10….1.46 Mar 2-3…..1.31
  17. bluewave
    The long range forecast challenge these days is trying to figure out when the stuck decadal background pattern is going to deviate from recent experience. We got a rare cooler summer last year relative to the recent summer composite. But it took the strongest extended Canadian blocking pattern on record during the warm season. Plus we had the developing El Niño summer which have been traditionally cooler. Our only recent winter month to buck the historic warm winter pattern over the last decade was January 2022. That required an amplified MJO 8 and very strong NE PAC block to pull off the only winter month since the 15-16 super El Niño to average around 30° for NYC. But it was short lived and the whole winter averaged out warmer than normal. It was the last real winter month for many of us with great snowstorms east of NYC.
  18. bluewave
    The Euro has an over the top warm up next week with 90° potential in New Hampshire and 80s around Newark. Looks like just enough SSE flow at Newark to push against the 90° there. But if the winds can go more SSW for a few hours ,then Newark could sneak in a 90°. But this onshore influence has been so strong that it may be a challenge.
  19. bluewave
    Places like Newark have been getting close to 30 days and higher reaching 90° and very wet summers since our warmer summer pattern began in 2010. So the warm and wet summer pattern has become the new normal. This is what happens with high pressure east of New England which gives us a more humid onshore flow with higher dewpoints. 14 wettest summers at Newark and annual number of 90° days Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Annual 90° days 1 2011 23.57 31 2 2003 21.30 20 3 2021 20.46 41 4 2007 19.27 21 5 1971 19.09 22 6 1975 18.78 12 7 2019 18.76 27 8 2009 18.70 14 9 1942 17.71 15 10 1989 17.67 27 11 1948 17.47 26 12 2020 17.30 31 13 2013 17.05 25 14 1952 16.80 31
  20. bluewave
    That’s pretty much a persistence forecast based on the summer patterns since the 15-16 super El Niño. The rainfall is based on the record warm Atlantic and extremely active tropical cyclone potential plus persistence since 15-16.
  21. bluewave
    Too bad we haven’t been able to get a great +IOD pattern like this during recent winters with the Western IO forcing dominant over the Maritime Continent.
  22. bluewave
    It looks like we should see some light showers or drizzle tomorrow but thankfully no big washout. Sunday appears like it will be drier with more sun. But still an onshore flow pattern with the big high to the north and low to the south. Newark and other stations have had at least a T of rain on every weekend this spring so far. May 11-12…0.38 May 4-5…..0.31 Apr 27-28…0.11 Apr 20-21…0.05 Apr 13-14…0.04 Apr 6-7…….T Mar 30-31…0.01 Mar 23-24….3.10 Mar 16-17…..T Mar 9-10….1.46 Mar 2-3…..1.31
  23. bluewave
    Yeah, it seems like we have had many Memorial Day weekends in recent years with some measurable rain on at least one of the extended weekend days. Memorial Day weekend 2021 was ridiculous with those two consecutive low max records in the low 50s.The maxes on Christmas 2020 were +10° warmer than that was. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2024-05-15DateLowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 5/29 52 in 2021 60 in 1950 60 in 1940 5/30 53 in 2021 53 in 1953 59 in 2017 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2020-12-25 62
  24. bluewave
    I just saw it. It’s generally a continuation of the pattern we have had all month with a -PNA trough out West and a trough over the East. If it’s still there in the forecast under 120 hrs out, then it will be something to watch. We haven’t had much luck with weekend weather this spring so far.
  25. bluewave
    These over the top warm ups have become a familiar theme.
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