bluewave

Ensembles beginning to pick up on the stronger blocking lingering with more low pressure east of New England which the OP runs have been showing for mid-June. New run Old run

These 11 double digit positive temperature departure months since December 2015 have presented significant forecast challenges for the meteorological community. I can remember looking at the EPS weekly forecast for December 2015 in late November and seeing no indication of the historic warmth which was to follow. The model basically had a stock looking El Niño composite for December. Vanilla above normal temperatures but nothing too extreme. Then we wound up with the +13.3 and 70° warmth later in the month around NYC with people wearing shorts.The model completely missed the record MJO 4-7 activity which interacted with the El Niño forcing to create that epic standing wave. It had that same stock El Niño composite looks for last winter which I was skeptical of based on past performance. For all these months near and over +10, I am not aware of any modeled or forecaster issued long range forecasts indicating the month would see such high departures. Temperatures this warm usually result in near to the warmest month on record for the season at locations in the maximum departure zones. This is why most of the seasonal forecasts have been underestimating the winter warmth which has occurred since 15-16. Pointing this out is in no way meant to disparage other forecasts. It’s just meant to point out the challenges in making winter forecasts over this much warmer period. My approach has been to look at the long range forecasts like last December and point out that the models were likely underestimating the warmth. I started posting about the warmer risks to the seasonal forecast than the models were showing last fall. Since we have seen the models miss the longer range MJO 4-7 forcing and then play catch up as we got closer in to the numerous events. Even knowing this, I wasn’t sure exactly how high the departures would go last winter. I was thinking that December was going to beat expectations based on the past MJO 4-7 activity with the record WPAC warm pool. But it took me until near the end of first week of December to go for +10 or greater departures along the Northern Tier. So trying to pinpoint monthly departures this high a few weeks to months before that months starts is very challenging. It’s probably why these extreme departures aren’t able to be correctly forecast in long range and seasonal forecasts.

Whenever we start seeing those deep troughs out West big wam ups usually follow. But sometimes it can take time when there is a persistent upper low east of New England. So at least in the initial phases of the pattern there could be more of an onshore flow pattern especially east of NYC. If that low gets out of the way completely day 11-15, then it’s off to the races especially when the source region has been setting record after record in recent months.

Yes, I have also noticed that the OP Euro can be too amped with closed lows at times near the Northeast coast day 6-10. But I have also seen the ensembles smoothing out the heights at times too much and can miss closed low positions. The ensembles seem to do better when there isn’t a closed low to deal with. The OP GFS and CMC also have a closed low exiting around the same time period but are a little further east than the Euro. So the further east this feature gets the quicker and higher temperatures we will experience. I only bring this up since it has been such a persistent feature since late March. Even a small influence from a low to our east could result in more onshore flow especially east of NYC. This is just the day 6-10 period. So it’s possible the 11-15 means eventually allow the ridge to expand enough into our region for the first major 95°+ heat of the season. I would just like to see the upper low to our east actually get far enough away for a deep SW flow to develop which is possible if the low kicks far enough east.

While we like to focus on the historic 9 warmer to record winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño here in the Northeast, the extreme winter warmth across other CONUS regions has also been unprecedented. Before this period, having near a +10 monthly departure for a U.S. climate station would be a rare to uncommon event. We can remember the double digit departure months occurring much less frequently in the past. January 2006 in the Upper Midwest and March 2012 come to mind. Now these very high monthly winter departures have been happening yearly with multiple months in the same winter recording such departures. We have had a remarkable 11 winter months across varying ENSO states since December 2015 meeting this criteria for one or more climate stations. It’s even more impressive to see these monthly temperature departures occurring in the warmest climate normals period. Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

The magnitude of any warm up will be dependent on how much of a trough remains to the east of New England. The smoothed ensemble means show less influence. But the OP runs have been showing a stronger closed low to our east. Since models can really struggle with closed lows beyond 5 days, the details will probably have to wait.

This strong of a block near the pole for the weekend would be a great pattern during the winter.

Yeah, more and more studies are coming around to the work of Dr. Hansen.

First 70° dew points of the season for many around our area today as May had the highest monthly dew points on record around the world.

Yeah, this is one of those events where the South Shore did much better than points further west. Radar estimates from Fire Island are coming in near 2.50”.

A direct hurricane strike on Long Island New England with eye crossing the coast hasn’t happened since Bob back in 1991 and Gloria in 1985. Very big height rises east of New England from the summer into fall have been steering all the major cat 3-5 hurricanes toward Florida and the Gulf Coast. Sandy got forced inland near ACY due to the record block and phase and gave us the RFQ with the historic storm surge. We have had numerous other systems run inland to our south and dump record rains here. I am not sure how much longer this predominant hurricane and tropical storm track will continue for. But the old saying is that it only takes one so we always have to be on guard.

We could set the daily PWAT record with values approaching 2.00” possible along with dewpoints near 70°.

The Euro seasonal just updated about an hour ago and is going wet this summer with plenty of tropical moisture input. So it looks like a warm and wet pattern rather than dry heat. Onshore flow and higher dewpoints with a drought feedback ridge near the Rockies and ridge near the Northeast. With very active tropical cyclone tracks undercutting the ridge.

The models look like they will have a dueling ridge pattern. One ridge anchored to the record heat and drought in Mexico. And another ridge near the Northeast. But we may continue with enough high pressure just east of New England for onshore flow especially east of NYC.

The next week to 10 days will feature a strong +PNA -NAO pattern which would be welcomed during the winter. But we are getting some hints of a pattern change to warmer approaching the 20th. The +PNA pattern weakens along with the -NAO. So it will be interesting to see if we finally start getting the Nino to La Niña transition warmer summer pattern as we approach the 20th.

This goes to what I have been saying in earlier posts in this thread. The winter 13-14 and 14-15 Northeast Pacific blocking pattern has shifted to the summer. Some were expecting a repeat of those winters in 19-20 when the marine heatwave exceeded those levels during the summer. But the pattern weakened heading into the fall and winter allowing the MJO 4-7 and supercharged SPV to dominate during the 19-20 winter. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15820-w Summer 2019 observations show a rapid resurgence of the Blob-like warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that produced devastating marine impacts in the Northeast Pacific during winter 2013/2014. Unlike the original Blob, Blob 2.0 peaked in the summer, a season when little is known about the physical drivers of such events

I had to add an extra step to those instructions for it to work. I changed the x to twittter but didn’t get the paste as plain text message. So I hit the back key and closed out the post. Then hit post again and pasted and got the post as plain text message and then it worked. Been hearing this issue is happening to many forums across the web following twitter changing to X. I thank everyone for the suggestions and am glad I got it to work with the extra step I added.

Yeah, our sensible weather here in the Northeast is determined by the combination of several teleconnections or 500mb anomaly centers acting in concert. But the +PNA influence during the last 7 summers left open the possibility of a slightly cooler than average outcomes when combined with factors such as the NAO and AO. This was the case in the summers of 2023 and 2017. So our summers since the 2015-2016 super El Niño have featured 6 out of 8 warmer than average to record warm summers. The winters have featured 9 out of 9 warmer to record warmer years in a row since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. This has been more impressive with the record Western Pacific warm pool driven MJO 4-7 record activity. We will probably need to find a marine heatwave somewhere else strong enough in coming winters to shift the dominant forcing away from the Maritime Continent if we are to see a colder than normal winter again. But I am currently not seeing where or how such a shift away from a warm to record warm winter pattern of the last 9 years will happen.

It will be interesting to see what happens going forward. I posted earlier on the lack of 90° days during the last week of May since 2010 at Newark and fewer total annual 90° days than the years with 90°+ heat. This pattern continuing into the first week of June is running counter to the other El Niño to La Niña transition summers. These summers have traditionally featured very high 90° day counts. Either the pattern turns around during the 2nd half of June or the competing marine heatwaves around the world are interfering with the traditional El Niño to La Niña summer pattern this year. We probably will need more time to sort things out.

We now have competing explanations on that North Atlantic cold blob. Some studies find it’s related to the slowing AMOC and others to stronger winds from increased storminess and +NAO. So it may take some time to figure out which feature is having a bigger influence. https://www.psu.edu/news/institute-computational-and-data-sciences/story/increased-storminess-may-give-rise-north-atlantics/ In a study published in Climate Dynamics, the researchers report that a northward shift in the jet stream is contributing to a cooling of about .7 degrees Fahrenheit over the past century. Using computer simulations, the researchers found that more than half — 54% — of the observed cooling trend is a result of increased heat loss from the ocean induced by the overlying atmosphere. Strengthened local convection — whereby ocean mixing brings cold water from depth to the surface — explains another 38% of the trend. According to the team, storminess increased in the region because the jet stream moved northward. As a result, there are more frequent and more intense storms in this region. The increase in storminess creates a stronger heat loss from the ocean and induces stronger convection in winter, leading to cooler temperatures in the region. https://www.psu.edu/news/research/story/north-atlantic-oscillation-contributes-cold-blob-atlantic-ocean/ UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — A patch of ocean in the North Atlantic is stubbornly cooling while much of the planet warms. This anomaly — dubbed the "cold blob" — has been linked to changes in ocean circulation, but a new study found changes in large-scale atmospheric patterns may play an equally important role, according to an international research team led by Penn State. “People often think the atmosphere has a very short memory, but here we provide evidence that atmospheric circulation change is significant enough to induce some long-term impact on the climate system,” said corresponding author Laifang Li, assistant professor of meteorology and atmospheric science at Penn State. Sea surface temperatures in the subpolar North Atlantic have decreased by about .7 degrees Fahrenheit over the last century, and a trend toward a more frequent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may have contributed significantly, the scientists reported in the journal Climate Dynamics.

A great map demonstrating why the -PDO was near daily record lows the last few days. There was an area of SSTs south of the Western Aleutians which were the warmest on record for the month of May. Also notice large areas of the tropical Western Pacific were also the warmest on record for the month of May. https://x.com/Climatologist49/status/1797698712766173461 May 2024 sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warmer than any other May on record. May 2024 SSTs exceeded the record set just last year by 0.11°C (18.76°C vs 18.65°C global averages).

The means are in 9th place for warmest. But the 90° heat has been muted by all the onshore flow, clouds, and showers. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1991-06-03 78.6 0 2 2011-06-03 76.4 0 3 2007-06-03 76.0 0 4 2016-06-03 75.8 0 5 2010-06-03 74.4 0 6 1986-06-03 73.9 0 7 2012-06-03 73.6 0 8 1989-06-03 73.3 0 9 2024-06-03 72.8 0 - 1999-06-03 72.8 0

Makes sense that the warming is lasting past the peak of other El Ninos since the warming also began earlier last year before the peak of previous El Ninos. So more conformation that there is something different is occurring with global temperatures surrounding this El Nino than previous ones. It’s possible we could see another record this June with recent global temperature rise the last few days. https://x.com/hausfath/status/1797658903297310756 We saw a notable spike in global temperatures in the final week of the month. If they persist, it makes it more likely we may see the hottest June on record as well: 11:57 AM · Jun 3, 2024 · 3,679 Views

Newark is on track for only the 3rd year since 2010 with no 90° readings between 5-25 and 6-7. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2024-06-07 89 4 2023-06-07 91 0 2022-06-07 98 0 2021-06-07 97 0 2020-06-07 91 0 2019-06-07 90 0 2018-06-07 92 0 2017-06-07 82 0 2016-06-07 96 0 2015-06-07 91 0 2014-06-07 88 0 2013-06-07 94 0 2012-06-07 92 0 2011-06-07 95 0 2010-06-07 95 0