Stebo

I would toss any of the years that are <2.0 that just tries to soften the blow, all the super ninos except for one are bad bad here, and the one that isn't is still below normal 15-16. As for my comment about the background state in recent years, I'm talking the last 10 years, which had 1 above normal year, 3 near normal and 6 below normal including the last 4 years in a row. I get you want to shine up this winter some, but eventually you have to look at reality in front of you. The data is bad and we are basically wishing and hoping on luck and nothing else to get us something decent this year.

3 of the 4 last super ninos were 20-25" here and that included the 2 closest analogs, 82-83 and 97-98. So yes I would lean much below normal snowfall and above normal temps. It is going to take luck to get above those values especially with a background state of losing snow in general over the recent years. We had favorable enso setups and it didnt help us.

should be back for you by Sunday and here by Monday. next week looks pretty solid.

We are 1 off the record here, i fully expect us to break it and surpass the record of 83 before the end of the day.

Going to be hard to buy a cloud for most of this week.

Vacation starts tomorrow can't wait to hit the road. Would have preferred it be a bit warmer but beggers can't be choosers.

I beleaf the leaves are going to be pretty solidly changed for my vacation next week, very hyped.

I like hearing this, I am doing a vacation around Lake Huron and Lake Superior coming back in through Minnesota in a few weeks. I look forward to leaf peeping.

Nino is notorious for early snow, I'll go Oct 27th

The last 3 strong nino/super nino have been bad for us, and its been what 5 years since we hit or went above average. at some point you just have to look at things at face value, its not good, and may very well be very bad.

My thoughts on this winter, it is going to suck.

Official Ford temperature while stuck in traffic downtown

If I had to leave here it would probably be for somewhere in New England. But I don't ever see myself leaving Michigan, I love this state too much.

A grand total of .02 here overnight.

Cracy considering we were 72 for a low last night here at KDTW.

A good fall outbreak and this happens. I honestly expect it at this point.

I only know pain

Yeah, not a fan of those tor warnings from IWX, could have easily just done SVRD and then circulation base a TOR if needed.

Private weather station measured 96 west of Joliet per LSR.

Ahh, yeah that would make sense considering the scope of the state down there. IL doing it is absolutely nuts.

This will push the state past 200, which I believe is a first for any state.

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILL...NORTHEASTERN KANKAKEE...NORTHERN NEWTON AND LAKE COUNTIES... At 1054 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Markham to near Crete to near Bradley, moving east at 75 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS producing measured winds gusts of 90 to over 100 mph. HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts. Literally the same areas smoked last week.

Also confirmed tor near Flossmoor.

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Will County in northeastern Illinois... Northeastern Kankakee County in northeastern Illinois... Northern Newton County in northwestern Indiana... Lake County in northwestern Indiana... * Until 1145 AM CDT. * At 1048 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Western Springs to Frankfort to near Lakewood Shores, moving east at 50 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS producing measured winds gusts of 80 to over 90 mph. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts. Big warning for southside, some bins over 100mph down there.

LSR from Aurora for 85mph measured at the airport.