Stebo
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Everything posted by Stebo
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As Joe noted the phasing of this system is what will make or break it. My concern is the northern stream being quicker and suppressing this into a sheared out mess. That said the Euro has been very consistent on timing and this isn't that far away either.
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Current view
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Hardest snow I have seen working this year, down to 1/4SM at DTW right now.
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This looks like a pretty solid hit and unlike this last Wednesday this system is going to be under a process of strengthening. Kind of reminds me of the system back in mid January in that regard.
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Thinking a solid 3-4" locally with a couple spots getting 5"
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Euro from 12z agreed. Waiting on 00z run. The GFS as usual is forecasting for another planet.
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Snow has started here as of 30 mins ago.
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Thinking this is more of a 3-5" locally vs the original thought of 4-7". Wouldn't shock me if someone ended up close to 6 but I think we stay just a bit under that.
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DTX talking 1-3. I have no idea what they are looking at but they are going to be wrong.
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Going to lock in 4-7" locally with this one. Looks like a solid hit and for the most part now we should miss the sleet.
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The Euro/ukmet would be a good hit for both Detroit and Chicago as Chicago would make up with lake enhancement/lake effect to counterbalance the lighter synoptic amounts.
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I like the shift but I'm concerned it isn't done yet and it will keep shifting right past here.
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74 in Denver today, breaks their record. Tuesday night's low -4.
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The GFS has actually been trending slightly north and west over the last few runs.
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NAM run to run is trending with slower more neutrally tilted trough with a faster northern stream piece across Ontario. It could be complete BS but that is one positive trend in a model today.
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There is a reason why too, the northern stream piece of energy is faster. Of all the things that could happen, that is at least a plausible thing.
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Amazing all this money spent in "improving" models and this is the garbage we get.
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Operational is faster than nearly every ensemble, also faster than the NAM/GEM/UKMET.
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Yeah I don't know what he is getting at, the storm is still there.
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Are we removing all the Great Lakes, because if so than I'd say even less.
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Its just a shit winter. We don't have great winters every year, unless we live where you live. Every year up there is a jackpot.
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[Beavis]Not snowy enough[/Beavis]
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Josh from downtown for 3.
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Yessss I want penguins too!
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What is the sun, this word does not compute.
