Stebo
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Everything posted by Stebo
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Bets on how it busts. My guess is seasonal trend south and since it is later on, rain as well.
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The northern end is a bit better this run comparatively to the last 3 runs.
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That did shift north a hair.
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I mean how many storms looked at least decent in the day 2 to 4 range only to be crap when they hit. I can count 3 within the last week.
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I will be so glad when this winter is over. Tired of chasing ghosts on the models, hell a 2 day forecast can't even be done right.
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Another issue with the Euro compared to other models is the piece dropping in from Montana which helps kick out the southern stream piece mysteriously weakens in Colorado right as it is about to kick the system out, no other model is doing that.
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The Euro I believe is too far south with the low, just too wonky with the track with a couple turns east through the day on Wednesday. It is struggling with convection created vorticity and not latching to the main trough ejecting out of the plains itself.
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Isn't it crazy we are saying things like this literally less than 48 hours before flakes fly. Anyone who pimps out that models are better now needs to look at this winter deeply.
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Lock it in.
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Yeah that piece that dives in from Montana is a new wrinkle but could certainly be a positive one.
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Based upon trends with this one. I'd argue moving that north some.
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A streak Detroit is running right now is no high under 25 for the winter so far. That might end Friday though. Pretty incredible when you think about it.
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The southern piece is in the US and has been for a couple days so if there will be any sampling surprises it will be with the northern stream and that has been trending positively all day. Also the window is closing as this is rapidly approaching
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Definitely like how this one is turning, gives us some room in case it decides to go to shit last minute.
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Northern stream came in weaker and flatter, allowed for better phasing as the southern piece came northeast. That would be one way to overcome the northern stream issues.
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18z Euro was definitely not a positive trend for a big storm, the northern stream piece was even faster this run.
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Nice to see some of the Wisconsin people cash in.
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Typically I would say that this is DOA, but with that northern stream piece being so significant and large in size it leads me to take pause that it could be a bit slower than projected.
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As Joe noted the phasing of this system is what will make or break it. My concern is the northern stream being quicker and suppressing this into a sheared out mess. That said the Euro has been very consistent on timing and this isn't that far away either.
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Current view
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Hardest snow I have seen working this year, down to 1/4SM at DTW right now.
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This looks like a pretty solid hit and unlike this last Wednesday this system is going to be under a process of strengthening. Kind of reminds me of the system back in mid January in that regard.
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Thinking a solid 3-4" locally with a couple spots getting 5"
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Euro from 12z agreed. Waiting on 00z run. The GFS as usual is forecasting for another planet.
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Snow has started here as of 30 mins ago.
