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Stebo

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Everything posted by Stebo

  1. Stebo
    Regional GEM is pretty in line with the NAMs especially the 3km. Maybe a bit stronger with the initial low at 48 hours.
  2. Stebo
    Slower is better, allows for wave 2 to phase with wave 3 in MN.
  3. Stebo
    I'm betting on 8:1 ratios.
  4. Stebo
    NBM
  5. Stebo
    Probably been riding GFS the whole time. They are too in the bed with the bad model to acknowledge it is a bad model.
  6. Stebo
    Well that explains the watches but man WPC wants to go down with their own ship. Even the NAM is trending south, the only thing left is GFS.
  7. Stebo
    Justified for maybe Racine and Kenosha. Maybe south end of MKE but that's about it. Trends on everything but the GFS have been south for over 24 hours now.
  8. Stebo
    Yeah just blindly believe a watch that has no chance of verifying...
  9. Stebo
    Yeah I just don't see the GFS being right on this especially in light of all other guidance.
  10. Stebo
    I wouldn't have. Trends are big time going in reverse there.
  11. Stebo
    Falling right in line with seasonal trends, less amounts and southeast.
  12. Stebo
    It was very similar to last run but just missed the phase by a tiny bit. It goes to show how something so small can have such a large impact.
  13. Stebo
    Only one I am tossing is the easiest toss in the world and that is the GFS
  14. Stebo
    Yep, this is more Ukie like.
  15. Stebo
    It isn't done running yet.
  16. Stebo
    It is also consistently the fastest with the trailing vort that ends up producing the main system, I just don't see that happening and many of the mesoscale model/foreign models are slowing more and more run to run. GFS will either score the coup of the winter, or play catch up.
  17. Stebo
    GFS is going down in an ugly way on this one
  18. Stebo
    We can sacrifice you for the good of SEMI
  19. Stebo
  20. Stebo
    Conversely several of the GEFS members are in the much more significant camp so there is that and the GFS has been putrid most of the year as well. Also the mean slid the snow swath southward some which it has been doing run to run, which is good because the bigger systems dig further south compared to flatter solutions.
  21. Stebo
    Says a lot about how bad the winter is and I should have been more clear, that it is not a huge region wide event but a decent hit for some.
  22. Stebo
    18z GFS Op is pretty pedestrian if you are looking for dud.
  23. Stebo
    How about no
  24. Stebo
    First call DAB+?
  25. Stebo
    When was the last good year here? 2010 then before that 2001? It is more than lean years. Hell look back at the 50s-70s and what this state got, even before that there were impressive outbreaks in 1920 and 1896.
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