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Stebo

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Stebo

  1. Stebo
    I think 3-6 is about it for SEMi. Closer to 6 if we get a bit tonight closer to 3 if tonight is more rain than snow.
  2. Stebo
    YOU DIDNT GIVE ME ENOUGH TIME!!!! Plus I did know this one. Back when Michigan got tornadoes.
  3. Stebo
    If we end up getting this storm I cant go lower than a C as we will be shockingly butting up against average but this might be one of the most frustrating winters in quite some time. Even 2012 wasn't as bad because you knew you weren't getting much after awhile, so there wasn't any of this pulling of the rug nonsense.
  4. Stebo
    Drive to see the snow.
  5. Stebo
    Maybe the hemorrhaging has slowed and the clock can run out.
  6. Stebo
    Still respectable and nothing like the shitpile gfs.
  7. Stebo
    They were like...
  8. Stebo
    I will say the shift se wasnt as substantial this run and some models are coming in a tick juicier.
  9. Stebo
    The worst part is that our bullseyes are not even remotely locked in and we are within 2 days.
  10. Stebo
    Noticed this as well, which is why the snow swath is becoming more sw-ne oriented run to run. Just need to stop shifting the swath eastward.
  11. Stebo
    18z Euro ensembles actually coming in a bit juicier for MI and Ontario.
  12. Stebo
    You locking in on a DAB now?
  13. Stebo
    Eventually someone will get that but I don't think it will be that far SW.
  14. Stebo
    I locked in 3-5" online with as minimal confidence as possible. Watch or not I have no confidence of these 6"+ amounts.
  15. Stebo
    I'll be surprised if we see more than 4" and that is coming from the inside of all the current bullseyes.
  16. Stebo
    It is, but his post came with some spinner bait attached. SEMI is the king of 6-10" and that is what I would be saying would happen, if I had any confidence in the forecast. I don't though because there is nothing to latch onto, that says this won't keep evaporating.
  17. Stebo
    It is 2020, we shouldn't be having massive shifts like this in modeling and it isn't just the US models either. Ukie has been consistent with where it is putting the snow, but surely not how it is was evolving the system itself. The other foreign models have been diving SE too, though the US models have been the most erratic.
  18. Stebo
    3k would still be snowing well beyond that. That would be a big time hit for Chicago to Detroit
  19. Stebo
    Regional GEM is pretty in line with the NAMs especially the 3km. Maybe a bit stronger with the initial low at 48 hours.
  20. Stebo
    Slower is better, allows for wave 2 to phase with wave 3 in MN.
  21. Stebo
    I'm betting on 8:1 ratios.
  22. Stebo
    NBM
  23. Stebo
    Probably been riding GFS the whole time. They are too in the bed with the bad model to acknowledge it is a bad model.
  24. Stebo
    Well that explains the watches but man WPC wants to go down with their own ship. Even the NAM is trending south, the only thing left is GFS.
  25. Stebo
    Justified for maybe Racine and Kenosha. Maybe south end of MKE but that's about it. Trends on everything but the GFS have been south for over 24 hours now.
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