Stebo
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Everything posted by Stebo
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It wasn't just robbing the moisture the convection modulated the mass fields such that the trough never matured properly and the surface low was pulled east. This was never given a chance to properly have the WCB cross into the cold sector because it got deflected east along the river with all the training storms there.
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Yeah the training shit along the river blocked the deeper moisture from coming north.
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Convection absolutely blocked moisture transport up to the region its also modulated the mass fields causing the surface low to be further east.
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He is in Florida so idk why he even cares.
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Wouldn't be an event without a shitty dry HRRR run
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Thinking 6-9 looks good for the metro with closer to 11 along Lake Huron
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I have no idea what this is going to do.
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There is going to be a lot more ice than the nam is showing if it's running into as cold of atmosphere that should be in place. Also too the low looks too far north in relation to the 500mb maps. Lastly Nam at this range cut last night's storm through the state only to be spectacularly wrong.
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I like what I am seeing and we don't have that much time for something to hit MSP or some nonsense.
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It shows 20" here Also, sarcasm?
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I would pay every dollar I have for a Ukmet win here.
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4.3" at home which fell right into my initial 3-6" thoughts I had.
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Weaker would be really bad for this system's potential
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Yeah you and us up here have been in the same boat.
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HRRR is a bit too dry for what the simulated reflectivity looks like plus it is notoriously dry with synoptic snows.
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We haven't had a winter storm warning in over 2 years, we need something.
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LOUD NOISES + --->
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12z GFS was so close to something really huge.
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Chicago's area should get lake enhancement which the models are sometimes too coarse to pick up. I wouldn't worry too much I could see most of that metro getting 3-6"
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Euro is more of a left leaner right now.
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Usually the low tracks south of the snow pack, it's not always but with sliders W-E it does more often than not. Also too the storm Wednesday will leave back some blocked/confluence too, which is why it is more on a W-E path.
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Has potential but Wednesday/Thursday will dictate the path a bit. Still noteworthy solutions being put out though at this junction.
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SREF plumes, he is right.
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Maybe a hair weaker overall.
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Yeah I have a feeling the NAM is overamplified here, especially with the 3km not even remotely close to it.
