donsutherland1

On October 19, Arctic sea ice extent reached 5 million square kilometers for the first time this season. That is the latest on record.

Morning thoughts... Today will partly to mostly cloudy, but mild. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 75° Overall, warmer than normal conditions should prevail into the start of the weekend.

Warmer conditions returned today. Temperatures will likely remain mainly above normal through the remainder of the week. One or more days could see much above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was -6.71. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.163. On October 18 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.400 (RMM). The October 17-adjusted amplitude was 2.592. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Moreover, among the former pool, both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" None of this is cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8°. Finally, Arctic sea ice extent remained just below 5 million square kilometers on October 18 (JAXA), which further extended 2020's record for the latest such occurrence of Arctic sea ice extent below 5 million square kilometers.

This response is not surprising. What’s missing is a letter or other document showing that this was supposed to be a foreign policy debate. If one wonders why no such documentation was furnished, it’s because of this as per the ground rules agreed by the Commission on Presidential Debates: All debates will be moderated by a single individual. As always, the moderators alone will select the questions, which are not known to the CPD or to the candidates. The CPD will choose the moderators, who will be announced in early September. The first and third presidential debates will be divided into six 15-minute segments. The topics for the six segments will be selected and announced by each moderator at least one week before each debate. This is the same format as was used 2012 and 2016. https://www.debates.org/2020/06/23/statement-second-presidential-debate/ Foreign policy will very likely fall under national security. However, politically inconvenient as they might be for some, COVID-19 and climate change are legitimate and important issues that should be discussed in detail.

Yes, this is correct. That's why the temperature will likely peak in the lower 70s this week rather than the upper 70s or even lower 80s.

There are a lot of clouds to the north and west of Philadelphia, most of New Jersey and NYC’s northern and western suburbs. Tomorrow will see more sunshine there.

Morning thoughts... Today will sunny and quite warm today. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in many parts of the region. Some locations could reach 70°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 71° Overall, warmer than normal conditions should prevail into the start of the weekend.

Warmer temperatures will return starting tomorrow. Temperatures will then likely remain mainly above normal through the remainder of the week. One or more days could see much above normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was -7.74. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.697. On October 17 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.588 (RMM). The October 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.711. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Moreover, among the former pool, both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" None of this is cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.7°. Finally, on October 17, Arctic sea ice extent remained below 5 million square kilometers (JAXA), further extending the record for the latest such figure.

Morning thoughts... A mostly sunny day with temperatures generally in the lower and middle 60s is in store. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 65° Philadelphia: 65° A stretch of warmer than normal temperatures will return starting tomorrow. One or more days during the work week could see much above normal readings.

On October 17, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.959 million square kilometers (JAXA). That further extended 2020’s record for the latest date on which Arctic sea ice extent was below 5 million square kilometers.

Once they start paying full cost for their products, they will have incentives to move toward more profitable and environmentally sound energy production. They currently possess the resources to invest in just such a transition. But so long as society covers a sizable part of their cost structure, they have no incentive to change from the status quo.

This is exactly why they should be paying full cost for their externalities. Otherwise, they are spared having to pay full cost for their product with society left to cover those costs.

Tomorrow will be another sunny but cool day. Afterward, warmer temperatures will return. Temperatures will then likely remain mainly above normal through the remainder of the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was -9.67. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.378. On October 16 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.695 (RMM). The October 15-adjusted amplitude was 2.791. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Moreover, among the former pool, both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" None of this is cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°. Finally, on October 16, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.929 million square kilometers (JAXA). That is the latest Arctic sea ice extent has been below 5 million square kilometers. The progression of this record has been: October 8, 2007 (first year when Arctic sea ice extent fell below 5 million square kilometers); October 13, 2012; and, most recently October 14, 2019.

The link to the full response by Geoffrey Supran and Naomi Oreskes can be found here: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abbe82 It is abundantly clear what the ExxonMobil Vice President is seeking to do. Hopefully, in the future, ExxonMobil, among others, will have to pay full cost for their externalities (greenhouse gas pollution) and face legal exposure for deliberately misleading the public and investors. There should be no de facto “too big to be held liable” for fraud exemption.

Crystal clear skies and temperatures in the upper 50s prevailed this afternoon.

No. The latest 100 degree reading was October 27, 2016.

With what aspect did he disagree? Strength of the La Niña?

Yesterday, Arctic sea ice extent on JAXA was 4.929 million square kilometers. That is the latest Arctic sea ice extent has been below 5 million square kilometers. The previous record of October 14 was set just last year.

Totals through 9 am: Boston: 1.93”; Islip: 0.92”; JFK: 1.66”; LGA: 1.44”; NYC: 1.37”; Newark: 0.98”’; Providence: 1.92”

Morning thoughts... Following yesterday’s rain, a fair but cool weekend is in store. Temperatures will struggle just to reach 60° in many parts of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 60° Philadelphia: 60° Warmer temperatures should return early next week.

In what represents a major breakthrough in American political discourse and offers a sign that climate change denial is waning in influence, climate change will be a featured part of next week’s Presidential debate. The Washington Post reported: As scientists predict that 2020 will be the hottest year on record, climate change will be among the six topics that will be the focus of next week’s debate between President Trump and his Democratic rival, former vice president Joe Biden, according to the Commission on Presidential Debates. The 15 minutes set aside for the segment will mark the most amount of time President Trump will have been questioned about climate change during his presidency as well as the most time devoted to the topic in a presidential debate. Kristen Welker of NBC News, the moderator for the Oct. 22 event in Nashville, also plans questions about the coronavirus, national security, race, leadership and “American families,” the commission said.

Through 8 pm: Islip: 0.25” JFK: 1.26” LGA: 1.31” NYC: 1.26” Newark: 0.92”

Today, Phoenix reached 102°. That extended 2020's record of 100°+ days to 145. The old record was 143 days, which was set in 1989. In addition, today's temperature surpassed the daily record for October 16. That record was 101°, which was set in 1991.

In the wake of the cold front responsible for today's rain and falling temperatures, a fair but chilly weekend is in store. However, temperatures will likely return to normal and then above normal conditions early next week. This warmth will likely persist through the remainder of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was -6.13. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.378. On October 15 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.779 (RMM). The October 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.350. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Moreover, among the former pool, both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°. Finally, the NOAA's annual winter outlook can be found here: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-cooler-north-warmer-south-with-ongoing-la-nina

1.26”.