donsutherland1

From NPR: Legates confirmed to NPR that he was recently hired as NOAA's deputy assistant secretary of commerce for observation and prediction. The position suggests that he reports directly to Neil Jacobs, the acting head of the agency that is in charge of the federal government's sprawling weather and climate prediction work. Neither Legates nor NOAA representatives responded to questions about Legates' specific responsibilities or why he was hired. The White House also declined to comment. Legates has a long history of using his position as an academic scientist to publicly cast doubt on climate science. His appointment to NOAA comes as Americans face profound threats stoked by climate change, from the vast, deadly wildfires in the West to an unusually active hurricane season in the South and East. https://www.npr.org/2020/09/12/912301325/longtime-climate-science-denier-hired-at-noaa This is a disturbing development. The NOAA has outstanding scientists. Individuals such as Legates (not to mention Jacobs) only undermine the NOAA’s performance and reputation. Hopefully, Congress will weigh in and, if there is a new Administration, Legates would be dismissed.

Apparently, Facebook enforces climate change denial.

Welcome to Americanwx.com. I hope you have a good experience here and feel free to share what’s happening in France and in Europe.

Yes. I am aware of the great adversity that has confronted the Millennial Generation (both the financial crisis/great recession and then the pandemic/severe recession). Generation Z, at least the older members, are also facing severe challenges. It would be nice if more from the earlier generations would assist more with climate challenge, but I worry that this won't be the case. Breaking the inertia, despite the overwhelming body of evidence, is frustratingly difficult.

Despite bright sunshine, today provide a preview of autumn. High temperatures reached only the lower and middle 70s in most areas. Select high temperatures included: Baltimore: 75° Boston: 67° Islip: 71° New York City: 74° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 76° Washington, DC: 75° Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and somewhat warmer. The season's coolest air mass so far could arrive next week. The temperature will very likely fall into the 50s in New York City's Central Park for the first time since June 15. Generally below normal readings could persist into at least the last week of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn. The SOI was +6.30. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.146. On September 11, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.931 (RMM). The September 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.899. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.9°. Finally, on September 11, Arctic sea ice extent was 3.571 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on 2010-2019 data, the highest 25% bound was 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound was 3.581 million square kilometers. The lowest 10% bound is 3.465 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record. 2020 also has, by far, the second lowest figure on record.

It’s deeply unfortunate. I was in Iceland a few years ago and the people there were had a lot to say about climate change. They mentioned changes that made fishing more difficult, that the year earlier puffins had a difficult time nesting on account of an absence of fish from abnormal warmth and the disappearing glaciers. I was able to see evidence of a vast retreat that had already taken place with some of the glaciers.

At Jones Beach, the temperature rose into the lower 70s, but there was a stiff onshore breeze. Three photos from this afternoon:

If the warming were merely artifacts of statistical manipulation, one would not be witnessing a lengthening of growing seasons, increased frequency of early- and late-season blooms, earlier nesting of numerous species of birds, the losses in mass from Greenland and Antarctica, the declining Arctic sea ice (summer minimum and annual average). In the big picture, even if one didn’t rely on the vast body of research showing the ongoing warming, there would be indications of big change from those other examples.

As noted earlier in this thread, here is a published paper showing that the UAH dataset may be flawed: https://journals.ametsoc.org/jtech/article/34/1/225/342433/A-Comparative-Analysis-of-Data-Derived-from

The point about unknown accuracy is crucial. IEM is the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, which “collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks.” One is dealing with raw data in many cases. Quality control is vital. No researcher would use data that has not been quality controlled in their work. Homogenization is also important. This paper explains, among other things, what it is and why it is necessary (pp.5-6): https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v3/techreports/Technical Report GHCNM No15-01.pdf The reality is that the quality-controlled data makes clear the extent of the warming that is underway. Such warming is extraordinary in how rapid and dramatic it has been when compared against geological time scales. Thus, efforts have been made to cast doubt on the high quality data. If there were a coherent alternative explanation, papers would already have been written, submitted for peer review and published. But no such alternative case exists.

Great points, Bluewave. The science is clear about the warming and its causes. It is no random occurrence that a disproportionate share of warm years and warm summers has occurred 2000 and later or 2010 or later. This is exactly what one would expect statistically in a climate where greenhouse gas forcing is increasing and, in turn, the world is warming.

From the IEM site: While we use care to provide accurate weather/climatic information, errors may occur because of equipment or other failure. We therefore provide this information without any warranty of accuracy. Users of this weather/climate data do so at their own risk, and are advised to use independent judgement as to whether to verify the data presented. The IEM is a volunteer effort and receives no funds for facilities or staff from Iowa State University or the State of Iowa. Users of the IEM must therefore recognize that the IEM may be discontinued at any time with little or no notice. Errors exist. For example, during Phoenix's recent September heat, I looked up Phoenix's highest hourly readings for September. Several hours listed 117 degrees on September 1, 1950. In fact, the high temperature that day was the September record figure of 116. The August record is 117.

Mean Summer Temperature (Contiguous United States): 30-Year Period Ending: 1950 71.7 1960 71.8 1970 71.3 1980 71.4 1990 71.4 2000 71.5 2010 71.9 2020 72.3 (highest on record) Source: NCEI Data

Those are 1 day anomalies. They are not year-to-date anomalies. 2020 is running very warm and could well wind up the 2nd warmest year on record on the major data sets (GISS, HadCru, NOAA, Berkeley). Below are the year-to-date anomalies:

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny, but quite cool. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 70s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 74° Much of next week will feel like early autumn as the coolest air so far this season moves into the region.

Arctic sea ice extent was 3.562 million square kilometers on 9/11, which is by far the second lowest figure on record. In addition, it is at a record low in the central Arctic region. https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1304545195820748800?s=20

The combination of rising minimum temperatures and decreasing low temperature variability in recent decades, with the warming especially pronounced for the 30-year period ending 2010 or later, has diminished the probability of September minimum temperatures below 50°. Moreover, the recent warming has been occurring during a time when New York City has had a mature urban footprint. New York City's September Minimum Temperatures:

Sunshine and cool conditions are likely for the start of the weekend. The season's coolest air mass so far could arrive next week. Generally below normal readings could persist into the last week of September. Beyond that, some of the guidance is hinting at a possible dramatic and sharp decline in the PNA. Such a pattern, should it develop, would favor a return to warmer and perhaps much warmer than normal conditions late in the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn. The SOI was +1.25. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.599. On September 10, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.901 (RMM). The September 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.689. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.1°. Finally,on September 10, Arctic sea ice extent was 3.571 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on 2010-2019 data, the highest 25% bound was 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound was 3.581 million square kilometers. The lowest 10% bound is 3.465 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record. 2020 also has, by far, the second lowest figure on record.

From LiveScience.com: Now, in a new study published today (Sept. 10) in the journal Science, researchers have analyzed the chemical elements in thousands of foram samples to build the most detailed climate record of Earth ever — and it reveals just how dire our current climate situation is... According to the researchers, the current pace of anthropogenic global warming far exceeds the natural climate fluctuations seen at any other point in the Cenozoic era, and has the potential to hyper-drive our planet out of a long icehouse phase into a searing hothouse state. "Now that we have succeeded in capturing the natural climate variability, we can see that the projected anthropogenic warming will be much greater than that," study co-author James Zachos, professor of Earth and planetary sciences at the University of California, Santa Cruz, said in a statement. "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections for 2300 in the 'business-as-usual' scenario will potentially bring global temperature to a level the planet has not seen in 50 million years." https://www.livescience.com/oldest-climate-record-ever-cenozoic-era.html

This is a key point. ENSO does not explain either the observed ongoing warming or the larger issue of the earth’s persistent energy imbalance. Foster and Rahmstorf also found that when the effects of factors such as ENSO were removed from the global temperature record, the warming signal remained. In fact, it was stronger. There is no alternative physical basis to explain the warming being driven by increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing.

For context, here are the courses taught in Penn State’s atmospheric science major. I chose Penn State, because of its outstanding program: http://www.met.psu.edu/academics/undergraduate-studies/options-within-the-major/atmospheric-science Here’s the description of Meteo 436: “This course covers radiation and how it interacts with the atmosphere and earth's surface to drive motions in the atmosphere. The fundamentals of radiative transfer at the molecular level, including absorption, scattering, transmission, and emission of radiation by matter, are discussed and applied to help describe the earth's energy budget. Crucial to understanding these processes in the atmosphere are the interactions of radiation with water in the vapor, liquid, and solid states. Applications of radiative transfer to the understanding of seasons and of climate and climate change are presented as well.” http://www.met.psu.edu/intranet/course-syllabi-repository/fall-2015-syllabi/meteo-436-syllabus In short, atmospheric science is, in general, overly narrow for a broad climate science focus. It is highly specialized in its nature. The narrow but specialized focus is a big part of the reason that Penn State graduates excellent meteorologists.

Morning thoughts... At 8:35 am, considerable clouds covered southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and parts of southeastern New York State. Mainly sunny skies prevailed across parts of Connecticut and eastern Long Island. During the morning, clouds will gradually dissipate across the rest of area. The remainder of the day will be partly to mostly sunny. Temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 70s with a few lower 80s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 78° Philadelphia: 80° Even cooler air will arrive this weekend. Much of next week will feel like early autumn as the coolest air so far this season moves into the region.

For starters, the climate system is much broader than the atmosphere. It includes the atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere and cryosphere. Climate scientists are not meteorologists. They don’t engage in operational weather forecasting. Their work is much broader and it involves long timescales from past to future (projecting scenarios). It is research-intensive. Modeling, as is the case in an array of scientific and non-scientific fields, is increasingly important in climate science. Thus, taking into consideration the broad nature and high research focus of their work, it is not surprising to see the degrees possessed by climate scientists. Andrew Dessler: Physics, chemistry James Hansen: Physics, mathematics, astronomy Michael Mann: Physics, applied mathematics, geology/geophysics Gavin Schmidt (who specializes in modeling): Mathematics and applied mathematics Jessica Tierney (paleoclimatology): Geology

This period will add to the literature. Influence can be skewed by, among other things, personality and capacity for reach. Examples include the numerous demagogic figures in history, the role of certain companies such as the East India Company that impacted British policy or more recently the tobacco companies (and currently fossil fuel companies) and their impact on public policy, and contemporary talk radio hosts who command large audiences despite possessing no expertise in the fields they usually comment on e.g., they all deny climate change. They have built their audiences through a combination of tapping into and festering senses of perceived grievance. Incitement to fear and envy has worked before in fomenting almost tribal divisions and tribal identity, now it is being applied on radio and also select cable TV outlets.

The State of Delaware has filed a lawsuit against 31 fossil fuel organizations seeking compensation for harm caused from greenhouse gas emissions and for harm likely to unfold. The lawsuit notes that the companies being sued knew for 50 years about the adverse consequences of dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. It notes that despite this knowledge, the defendants engaged in a campaign of deception and misleading information to undermine public support for addressing greenhouse gas pollution. The complaint can be found here: https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/wdel.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/3/2c/32c98e72-f3aa-11ea-8767-a3c54f1f6015/5f5a9699de2fd.pdf.pdf