donsutherland1

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny, breezy and much cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 60s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 67° Milder conditions will quickly return toward the weekend. Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Delta could impact the region from late Sunday through Tuesday. Details remain to be resolved.

All of the hyperbolic claims about environmental degradation caused by renewable energy technologies, which are continuing to improve, pales in comparison to the colossal environmental degradation caused by dumping carbon into the atmosphere. If one were to attach a cost to the carbon pollution, ExxonMobil alone would be responsible for more roughly $9.5 billion in annual carbon pollution (124 million metric tons x $70 per ton). The emissions are from Statista for 2018. The cost is the midpoint between estimates made by Nordhaus ($40 per ton) and Stern (just over $100 per ton). That’s just one giant polluter. Worse, it is a free rider that does not have to bear the costs of its pollution. Society currently bears those costs resulting in an artificial suppression of the cost of oil, resulting in greater quantity demanded than would otherwise be the case (translating into more pollution than would otherwise be the case). Moreover, it ignores pollution related to production, accidents, etc. It also does not consider opportunity costs. The opportunity costs of delaying the shift to clean energy are very high (even if all uncertainties about the consequences of climate change are assumed to be relatively benign, which hasn’t been the experience so far as uncertainties begin to be resolved).

IMO, there needs to be a price placed on carbon. The polluters should bear the costs of their emissions, not society.

I did. That's why significant obstacles lie ahead of efforts to address climate change.

Phoenix Experiences its Hottest Week in October: Following its hottest summer on record, Phoenix experienced its warmest first week of October and warmest seven-day period in October with a mean temperature of 89.0°. The previous seven-day record in October was 88.8°, during October 5-11, 1991. October 1-7, 2020 Summary: Average high temperature: 105.0° (old record: 103.7°, 1980) Average low temperature: 73.0° (13th highest) Average temperature: 89.0° (old record: 88.7°, 1991) The average high temperature of 105.0° would rank as the 33rd highest summer average. During the first week of October, Phoenix registered 5 temperatures of 105° or above: October 1: 107° (tied October record high) October 2: 106° October 3: 105° October 4: 105° October 5: 105° That number surpassed the previous monthly record of 2, which was set in 1980. Since 1895, Phoenix has had 12 days in October when the temperature reached 105° or above in October. 6 (50%) have occurred since 2000, 5 (42%), of which have occurred 2010 or later. There remains large year-to-year variability during the first week in October with very warm Septembers and/or very wrm last weeks of September often followed by unseasonable warmth during the first week in October. During the 1895-2019 period, in cases when September had a mean temperature of 87.0° or above, October 1-7 had a mean temperature of 82.0° with 71% of cases seeing a mean temperature of 80° or above during the first week of October. In cases when the September 24-30 mean temperature was 84.0° or above, October 1-7 had a mean temperature of 82.2° with 70% of cases having a mean temperature of 80° or above during the first week of October. In cases where September had a mean temperature of 87.0° or above and the last week of September had a mean temperature of 84.0° or above, the mean temperature during October 1-7 was 82.9° and 81% of cases saw mean temperature of 80° or above during the first week of October. Overall, the first week of October has seen an increase in temperatures. High temperatures have increased modestly since the 30-year periods ending as recently as 1970. Low temperatures have increased notably since the 30-year period ending in 1970. There has been a modest increase in the average number of days on which the temperature reaches 100° or above. Table 1: Select October 1-7 Data (30-Year Moving Average) Table 2: Record High Maximum Temperatures

In the wake of a frontal passage, clouds will give way to clearing skies. It will remain breezy overnight. Tomorrow will be sunny and noticeably cooler with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s across the region. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +13.99. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.479. On October 6 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.200 (RMM). The October 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.196. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°.

They simply don’t care. They are little better than those who have rationalized atrocities under the claim that the end justifies the means. In this case, the harm they inflict (and society pays for) is justified by their carbon-based profits.

I did. The outcomes bore out what they had projected would happen.

The ECMWF charts are now available: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/?facets=Type,Forecasts Warning: The DJF seasonal forecast may be hazardous to one’s preferences.

It does show up on some of the EPS ensemble members, though few show a significant amount.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and increasingly windy ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will likely gust past 45 mph this afternoon and evening. In addition, there could be some widely scattered showers or even thundershowers this afternoon and early tonight. Temperatures will rise into the middle 70s and perhaps upper 70s in some areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 78° Philadelphia: 77° Milder conditions will quickly return toward the weekend.

I’m not talking about extremes, but extremes skewed severely in one direction.

If the weather is not getting more extreme, than few records should be set. But that’s not the case at all. Year-to-date, there have been 5,240 global heat records (record high maximum and record high minimum temperatures). There have been 997 global cold records (record low minimum and record low maximum records). If the climate were relatively stable, the two figures should be roughly equivalent. Instead, there have been 5.3 heat records for every cold record. Going to all-time temperature records, there have been 528 all-time heat records and 28 all-time cold records. In this case, the ratio is even more skewed toward heat: 18.9 heat records for every cold record. A warming climate produces such an outcome. A stable or cooling climate does not. Moreover, these records are not the result of a manipulation of data. The warming climate is supported by a continuing decline in summer Arctic sea ice extent (this year was the first case of two consecutive years with a minimum extent under 4 million square kilometers on JAXA) and both Greenland’s and Antarctica’s losing mass. None of this would be occurring if temperature data were artifacts of adjustment, not real measures of a warming climate. Finally, a 0.5 degrees C drop in global annual temperatures would very likely require a volcanic eruption quite a bit larger than the Krakatoa eruption of 1883.

Tomorrow will be another warm day with readings reaching the 70s in much of the region. An afternoon or evening shower or thundershower is possible as a cold front moves across the region. Strong winds gusting past 45 mph could precede the frontal passage. Behind the front, a brief shot of moderately cooler air will overspread the area. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +12.83. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.193. On October 5 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.193 (RMM). The October 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.954. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively.

I don’t believe it’s fair to dismiss peer-reviewed research as “BS,” much less to do so without credible contrary evidence.

There is credible evidence that climate change is triggering changes that promote more extreme weather. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep45242 Synoptic patterns are occurring within the context of increased greenhouse gas forcing. Added warmth has an impact e.g., for every 1 degree C rise in temperature, the atmosphere holds approximately 7% more water vapor. So, if everything else were held constant, and it isn’t, one would be dealing with heavier precipitation events. Attribution studies are linking extreme events to climate change, as would be expected based on the current scientific understanding. One very recent example is this year’s exceptional warmth in Siberia. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Prolonged-heat-Siberia-2020.pdf In terms of the wildfires, there is a large body of literature that links wildfire conditions to climate change. Increased heat, dryness, water vapor deficits all exacerbate risks of fire above what would otherwise be the case. https://news.sciencebrief.org/wildfires-sep2020-update/ Climate science has made a strong empirical case linking anthropogenic greenhouse gases to extreme weather. If the case were weak or worse, those who reject AGW and its link to extreme weather, would be publishing research showing otherwise. They are not. Empty dismissals—by empty, I mean without credible research to back those statements—are insufficient basis to contest the large and growing body of research linking climate change to extreme weather and related events.

It should be noted that the download site only goes through 2019. The NCEP site doesn’t include EPO and WPO forecasts. One can still get them through various vendors for the EPS, GEFS, etc. Actual observed values are no longer available as far as I know.

Morning thoughts... Today will be almost a carbon copy of yesterday. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures will generally reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 71° A cool front will bring a brief period of cooler temperatures to the region later this week before temperatures rebound to above normal levels.

From Bloomberg.com: Exxon Mobil Corp. has been planning to increase annual carbon-dioxide emissions by as much as the output of the entire nation of Greece, an analysis of internal documents reviewed by Bloomberg shows, setting one of the largest corporate emitters against international efforts to slow the pace of warming. The drive to expand both fossil-fuel production and planet-warming pollution comes at a time when some of Exxon’s rivals, such as BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, are moving to curb oil and zero-out emissions. Exxon’s own assessment of its $210 billion investment strategy shows yearly emissions rising 17% by 2025, according to the internal documents. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-05/exxon-carbon-emissions-and-climate-leaked-plans-reveal-rising-co2-output This is what happens when mega-polluters such as Exxon Mobil receive subsidies to underwrite the exploration for fossil fuels, are held immune to the costs of their pollution, and have taxpayers pay for the costs of their pollution. Incentives are skewed, pollution is maximized, and with pollution, societal harm is maximized.

I was mistaken. Free ECMWF access begins October 7, not October 5.

FYI, daily EPO and WPO values will no longer be available at: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/epo.daily

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia all reached 70°. Tomorrow will be sunny and mild with readings again reaching or perhaps 70°. Across the Atlantic Ocean, numerous daily record highs were surpassed in Europe. A few monthly record highs were exceeded, as well. Such large outbreaks of record-breaking heat have skewed daily, monthly, and all-time records ratios in favor of the warmth. Global records data for 2020 (January 1 through October 3) are below: Daily Records: Highs: 41,428; Lows: 15,511; Ratio (H:L): 2.7 Monthly Records: Highs: 2,509; Lows: 475; Ratio (H:L): 5.3 All-Time Records: Highs: 171; Lows: 16; Ratio (H:L): 10.7 Milder conditions will prevail just past midweek until a cold front brings a brief shot of unseasonably cool air into the region. Afterward, a pronounced and sustained warmup is possible. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +10.05. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.193. On October 4 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.060 (RMM). The October 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.953. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Among that pool, October 1983 and 2016 featured above normal and near normal rainfall respectively. October 1988 and 1998 saw below normal and much below normal rainfall respectively.

From Politico: The August Complex of wildfires surpassed the grim milestone Monday of over 1 million acres burned, the first blaze in recorded California history to reach seven figures of acreage. The update by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection on the August Complex in the north coastal range of mountains came just after the agency announced Sunday that the state has seen over 4 million acres burned so far this year. That's more than the double the total destruction of 1.9 million acres burned in all of 2018, the previous record year. https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/10/05/california-has-first-million-acre-megafire-as-devastating-season-sets-new-records-1321356

In the wake of yesterday’s 60 Minutes documentary linking climate change to recent extreme weather and wildfires, all of which is supported by the literature, climate change deniers are angered that they are no longer gaining media platforms to promote their discredited beliefs and sap the public of understanding both the magnitude and urgency of the climate change issue. One complained over Twitter, “Love the way 60 Minutes refuses to show any challenges to the AGW dogma, or even the other side of the issue.” First, the overwhelming body of scientific literature, not to mention the laws of physics concerning the properties of CO2, support AGW. At least when it comes to science, the debate about the primary cause of the observed ongoing warming is over. Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities that driven an increase in the atmospheric concentration of such gases. In turn, those gases had driven a sustained energy imbalance that has led to an increase in oceanic heat and rising temperatures, with adverse effects ranging from increasingly severe heat events to extreme wildfires. Those who reject AGW cannot provide a credible alternative backed by peer-reviewed scientific research. They have no unifying theory, no new forcing, no rational explanation. They have nothing. That’s why the debate is over and the focus is shifting to areas of uncertainty, feedbacks, etc. At the same time, that’s why public pressure, especially among the younger generations who bear much greater exposure to the increasing consequences of climate change, are leading a movement for big policy changes. Second, if the debate concerning the cause of climate change is over and no credible scientific case can be made for the “other side of the issue,” that side does not exist as far as science is concerned. It only exists in terms of rhetoric, pseudo-science and politics. Therefore, as the 60 Minutes program was focused on science, it could only draw upon the knowledge that has been borne out through decades of empirical research. There is no point in promoting rhetorical or political beliefs that lack scientific foundation in a documentary concerning science. Doing so would be little different than granting an audience to the handful who reject gravity, embrace a belief that the world is flat, and/or dismiss Evolution. That would not be science. That would be confusing noise. Such noise would only further delay the kind of policy and technology changes that are needed to begin to address the challenge of climate change.

Morning thoughts... Today will partly to mostly sunny and mild. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 70° Somewhat warmer than normal conditions will likely continue through midweek. Rainfall will likely remain below normal.