donsutherland1

Morning thoughts... Today mostly cloudy with some drizzle and scattered showers. It will be milder than yesterday. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 59° Newark: 61° Philadelphia: 65° A significant precipitation event followed by a brief shot of sharply colder air is likely toward the end of the week. Out West, winterlike weather prevailed. Cheyenne picked up 14.0" snow. That broke the daily record of 5.7", which was set in 2011 and the October daily record of 8.9", which was set on October 22, 1906. Record cold also prevailed in numerous locations including: Bozeman, MT: -18° (old record: 11°, 2002) Butte, MT: -18° (old record: 9°, 2002) Casper: -7° (old record: 12°, 2002) Cody, WY: -7° (old record: 5°, 1919) Missoula, MT: -3° (old record: 15°, 2002) Salt Lake City: 20° (old record: 22°, 1878) Sheridan, WY: -10° (old record: 5°, 1913)

Temperatures rose only into the lower 50s today in much of the region. Overnight and tomorrow, it will be mainly cloudy with some showers. Readings should return to the upper 50s to perhaps the lower 60s. The remainder of the closing week of October will likely see temperatures average below normal courtesy of a cold close to the month. Out West, select low temperatures through 8 pm EDT included: Billings: 5° (old record: 18°, 1997) Casper: 5° (old record: 13°, 1997) Cheyenne: 5° (tied record set in 1873) Cut Bank, MT: -10° Denver: 11° Great Falls: 0° Helena: 3° Missoula, MT: -7° (old record: 10°, 1919) ***New Monthly Record*** Rapid City: 11° A storm will likely bring a significant snowfall to parts of Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and perhaps even portions of the Texas Panhandle tomorrow into Tuesday. As that storm heads eastward, Zeta will very likely make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast by midweek. As a result, late Thursday through Friday could see a potentially significant precipitation event in the region. The potential exists that cold air from eastern Canada could be drawn southward to produce at least some snowfall in an area running from northern Pennsylvania, across central New York State, and into central New England. Behind the storm, the coldest air of the season will briefly push into the region. November could commence on a cool note. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop during the second week of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was -6.71. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.752. On October 24 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.028 (RMM). The October 23-adjusted amplitude was 2.274. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.2°.

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Morning thoughts... A much colder air mass over spread the region last night. Early morning sunshine in parts of the region will give way to partly to mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon. Some showers and sprinkles are likely. Temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 50s. Some parts of the region could see high temperatures in the upper 40s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 53° It will be milder tomorrow. At Cut Bank, MT, the temperature this morning was -10°. In the parts of the West, a develop storm will strengthen bringing potentially heavy snow to a portion of Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and possibly the Texas Panhandle into Tuesday.

In the wake of a strong cold front that is clearing the region, tomorrow will be sharply colder. Readings in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions will struggle to reach the lower 50s. Parts of the region will see high temperatures in the 40s. Some showers or sprinkles are possible tomorrow. Snowfall totals from the storm that brought record early-season snowfall to parts of Montana included: Great Falls: 10.0" Helena (1 SSW): 20.5" Helena (2 W): 20.0" As the snowstorm departs, near-record to record cold is likely in the Northern Rockies tonight. Numerous single-digit low temperatures will be likely tomorrow morning in parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. A few locations could even experience subzero low temperatures. The cold will then expand into the Central Plains for Monday and Tuesday. However, much of this cold air will likely remain confined west of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions until the closing days of this month. During the closing days of the the month, some of the cold air from out West will spill into the region. November could commence on a cool note. The first week of November will likely be cooler than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +1.16. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.365. On October 23 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.285 (RMM). The October 22-adjusted amplitude was 2.537. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3°.

Yes. It still is early. Unfortunately, things look worse than they did a few weeks ago. Hopefully, things will change down the road.

That may well occur. Things aren’t currently looking very good for snowfall and a warmer than normal winter is likely.

For those watching the progress of the cold and snow in the Northern Rockies, Great Falls, MT set daily records for the minimum temperature and snowfall yesterday. Yesterday’s low temperature was 3 degrees (old record” 10 degrees, 1957). Daily snowfall was 4.0” (old record: 2.8”, 1954).

Morning thoughts... A strong cold front will sweep across the region today. Ahead of the front, today will be partly to mostly cloudy and still mild. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 74° Tomorrow will be sharply colder with the temperature struggling just to reach the lower 50s in many parts of the region.

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Great Falls could even dip below zero.

The storm responsible for heavy snow in the Northern Rockies tonight and tomorrow will bring a near-record to record cold air mass into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Numerous single-digit low temperatures will be likely on Sunday morning in parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. A few locations could even experience subzero low temperatures. The cold will then expand into the Central Plains for Monday and Tuesday. However, much of this cold air will likely remain confined west of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions until the closing days of this month. A brief but fairly sharp shot of cooler air could arrive during the weekend in the Northeast. During the closing days of the the month, some of the cold air from out West will spill into the region. November could commence on a cool note. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +9.22. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.021. On October 22 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.543 (RMM). The October 21-adjusted amplitude was 2.469. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. From that larger pool of 10 La Niña winters that followed El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more, as was the case this year: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" This is not cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°.

Unfortunately, a large chunk of the sea level rise is already baked in so to speak.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy, though some areas could see the clouds break for a time. It will be mild with highs mainly in the upper 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 73° Overall, warmer than normal conditions should prevail into the start of the weekend, but a shot of much cooler air should arrive for Sunday. Meanwhile, a major early-season snowstorm will develop today in the Northern Rockies. Parts of that area could pick up a foot or more of snow. Frigid air will follow in the storm’s wake.

Tomorrow will be mild in the East, even as a major early-season snowstorm develops in the Northern Rockies and heads for the Northern Plains. That storm will bring a near-record to record cold air mass into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Numerous single-digit low temperatures will be likely on Sunday morning in parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. A few locations could even experience subzero low temperatures. However, much of this cold air will likely remain confined well west of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through much of the remainder of this month. A brief shot of cooler air could arrive during the weekend in the Northeast. Toward the end of the month, some of the cooler air from out West could begin to spill into the region. November could commence on a cool note. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +9.47. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.239. On October 21 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.466 (RMM). The October 20-adjusted amplitude was 2.312. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. From that larger pool of 10 La Niña winters that followed El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more, as was the case this year: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" This is not cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8°.

A great quote from Jeremy Symons, former vice president for political affairs at the Environmental Defense Fund, concerning why climate change is now one of the leading topics of tonight’s Presidential debate: “It’s leaped out of the science books and into the communities where people have to deal with the deadly consequences of pretending it doesn’t exist.”

That’s a great set of books.

Many La Niña winters have a lot of warmth, so a warm winter is certainly on the table.

Hopefully, that won’t be the case. But things are looking worse than they were a few weeks ago.

Morning thoughts... Clouds, fog and mist will give way to partial sunshine in much of the region. It will be unseasonably warm with readings in the 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 73° Newark: 76° Philadelphia: 79° Overall, warmer than normal conditions should prevail into the start of the weekend.

Clouds broke during the afternoon and unseasonably mild conditions prevailed. Tomorrow, clouds, mist, and fog will give way to sunshine and somewhat warmer conditions. Widespread readings in the lower 70s in much of the region are likely. Temperatures in such cities as Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC could rise into middle and upper 70s. Toward the end of the week, a major early-season snowstorm will usher a near-record to record cold air mass into the Northern Plains. Numerous single-digit low temperatures will be likely on Sunday morning in parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. A few locations could even experience subzero low temperatures. However, much of this cold air will likely remain confined well west of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through much of the remainder of this month. Temperatures will likely remain mainly above normal through the remainder of the week. One or more days could see much above normal temperatures. A brief shot of cooler air could arrive during the weekend. Toward the end of the month, cooler air could begin to spill into the region. November could commence on a cool note. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +3.61. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.305. On October 20 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.313 (RMM). The October 19-adjusted amplitude was 2.389. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. From that larger pool of 10 La Niña winters that followed El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more, as was the case this year: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" None of this is cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8°.

A lot will depend on how the pattern ultimately evolves. The odds of an EPO+/AO+ pattern have increased.

Yes, both have national security implications.

Morning thoughts... Clouds, fog and mist will give way to at least partial sunshine. It will be another mild day with readings mainly near or just above 70° in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 71° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 75° Overall, warmer than normal conditions should prevail into the start of the weekend.

For the most part, average or above. However, in the cases with the larger amounts, the East wound up with below normal snowfall. The sample size is too small to draw conclusions about the East, especially when one considers ENSO.