donsutherland1

Central Park reported a temperature of 66 degrees this morning. That was the Park’s coolest temperature since June 29 when the thermometer fell to 65 degrees.

Yes, ISP has a 90 mph gust. My initial numbers were from the National Hurricane Center’s report. Below is the PNS: PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 854 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE RECENT STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC ***********************PEAK WIND GUST*********************** LOCATION MAX WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS GUST OF MPH MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT... ANZ330... 2 S GROTON 76 300 PM 10/29 MESONET ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 76 549 PM 10/29 ASOS GREENWICH 70 520 PM 10/29 TRAINED SPOTTER NORWALK 69 830 PM 10/29 PUBLIC TRUMBULL 68 540 PM 10/29 TRAINED SPOTTER DANBURY AIRPORT 68 711 PM 10/29 ASOS ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... 3 SW MIDDLETOWN 58 643 PM 10/29 MESONET ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... MADISON 85 520 PM 10/29 PUBLIC ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... GROTON AIRPORT 75 335 PM 10/29 ASOS STONINGTON 70 300 PM 10/29 EMERGENCY MNGR NEW JERSEY ...BERGEN COUNTY... 1 SSE TEANECK 76 731 PM 10/29 MESONET TETERBORO 72 747 PM 10/29 ASOS NORTH ARLINGTON 63 348 PM 10/29 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...ESSEX COUNTY... NEWARK AIRPORT 78 751 PM 10/29 ASOS FAIRFIELD 72 741 PM 10/29 MESONET 1 ESE FAIRFIELD 72 741 PM 10/29 MESONET CALDWELL AIRPORT 70 614 PM 10/29 ASOS ...HUDSON COUNTY... 1 ENE BAYONNE 77 805 PM 10/29 MESONET HARRISON 68 720 PM 10/29 CO-OP OBSERVER ...PASSAIC COUNTY... CLIFTON 80 930 PM 10/29 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEW YORK ...ANZ338... 2 N TOMPKINSVILLE 90 824 PM 10/29 MESONET ...ANZ355... BUOY 44065 69 514 PM 10/29 NY HARBOR APPROACH BUOY ...ANZ370... BUOY 44025 74 250 PM 10/29 BUOY ...KINGS COUNTY... CONEY ISLAND 69 642 PM 10/29 MESONET FLATBUSH 58 905 PM 10/29 MESONET ...NASSAU COUNTY... SYOSSET 82 703 PM 10/29 SKYWARN SPOTTER 1 E POINT LOOKOUT 80 750 PM 10/29 JONES BEACH COAST GUARD 3 E LIDO BEACH 79 615 PM 10/29 MESONET BAYVILLE 77 521 PM 10/29 MESONET 2 NNE GLEN COVE 77 521 PM 10/29 MESONET OYSTER BAY 67 338 PM 10/29 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...NEW YORK COUNTY... CENTRAL PARK 62 313 PM 10/29 ASOS ...ORANGE COUNTY... ORANGE LAKE 61 745 PM 10/29 MESONET MONTGOMERY 58 740 PM 10/29 ASOS ...QUEENS COUNTY... 2 SSE JACKSON HEIGHT 79 802 PM 10/29 MESONET NYC/JFK AIRPORT 85 802 PM 10/29 ASOS (direction 100 degrees) BREEZY POINT 78 830 PM 10/29 MESONET NYC/LA GUARDIA 74 655 PM 10/29 ASOS ..SUFFOLK COUNTY... EATONS NECK 96 655 PM 10/29 MESONET-ELEVATED 71FT (Est 87 mph at 10m) ISLIP AIRPORT 90 626 PM 10/29 ASOS - 78KT 4 ENE PLUM ISLAND 85 435 PM 10/29 MESONET EAST MORICHES 81 600 PM 10/29 MESONET EAST FARMINGDALE 79 723 PM 10/29 ASOS UPTON 79 150 PM 10/29 MESONET PATCHOGUE 77 701 PM 10/29 SPOTTER FIRE ISLAND 75 435 PM 10/29 MESONET POINT O'WOODS 73 350 PM 10/29 MESONET 1 ENE MONTAUK HIGHWAY 73 220 PM 10/29 MESONET 2 WSW FISHERS ISLAND 71 300 PM 10/29 MESONET 1 S BLUE POINT 70 608 PM 10/29 MESONET OCEAN BEACH 68 715 PM 10/29 MESONET 1 NW EAST HAMPTON 66 355 PM 10/29 MESONET ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... WHITE PLAINS 72 705 PM 10/29 ASOS $$ DS

Tomorrow will be unsettled with showers and thunderstorms around. Some of the thunderstorms could produce heavy downpours. Warmer weather will return for the weekend. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around July 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop. The Region 3.4 anomaly is the lowest such figure in July since 2010. Since weekly recordkeeping commenced in 1990, July 1998 was the only other summer following an El Niño winter that saw a comparably cool Region 3.4 anomaly. Both cases went on to have a very warm September and warmer than normal autumn. They diverged in December with the state of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) making a decisive difference. The SOI was +25.73. That was the highest figure since October 14, 2018 when the SOI was +27.20. In all three Augustcases where the August ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.75°C or colder, a La Niña winter followed. The most recent such case was August 2010. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.409. On August 5, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.854 (RMM). The August 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.646. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Some wind gusts from Sandy: East Moriches: 82 mph Farmingdale: 90 mph Great Gull Island: 85 mph Jones Beach: 81 mph Long Beach: 83 mph New York City-JFK: 85 mph Syosset: 82 mph

Some additional photos of the tree damage following Isaias: Larchmont, NY: Mamaroneck, NY: As of this afternoon, large sections of the Village of Larchmont remain without power.

Today, the SOI was +25.73, which was its highest figure since October 14, 2018. In all three August cases when the SOI rose to +25.00 or above and the August ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.75C or below, winter saw a La Niña. The most recent such case was August 2010.

Due to my Internet being down I will have to see if I can get the data when it’s back up.

I suspect 70+ mph gusts were fairly common on Long Island. The network of quality stations is somewhat limited, so there are a lot of areas for which there was no data. Even across the Sound, there were many trees that were snapped or uprooted, especially close to the Sound. The damage there is comparable to March 2010. Inland by a few miles, the tree damage is less severe.

Isaias brought high winds and heavy rains to the region today. Isaias passed west of New York City with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. At the time, Isaias was racing north-northeastward at 40 mph. Parts of the region experienced wind gusts past 70 mph. Sites reporting wind gusts of 70 mph or above included: Berkeley Twp, NJ: 75 mph Blue Point, NY: 71 mph Cape May NOS, NJ: 75 mph Grasonville, MD: 71 mph Great Gull Island, NY: 73 mph Great South Bay, NY: 75 mph Farmingdale, NY: 78 mph Jackson Heights, NY: 73 mph New York City-JFK Airport: 70 mph Ocean City, NJ: 72 mph Rutgers, NJ: 70 mph Smyrna Landing (2 NW), DE: 96 mph Stony Brook, NY: 75 mph Toms River, NJ: 70 mph Maritime Stations: Barnegat Inlet Light, NJ: 75 mph Long Beach Island: 109 mph Daily record rainfall was set at sites including: Albany: 3.91" (old record: 1.40", 1915) Allentown: 4.92" (old record: 2.47", 1915) Binghamton: 1.53" (old record: 0.78", 1959) Burlington: 2.03" (old record: 1.74", 1995) ***through 8 pm*** Philadelphia: 4.16" (old record: 2.74") Scranton: 2.42" (old record: 1.33", 1974) Wilmington, DE: 4.48" (old record: 2.00", 1915) Following Isaias' passage, the clouds broke, the sun returned and the wind diminished. As Isaias heads northward into Canada, tranquil and warmer weather will be in store for tomorrow. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around July 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop. The Region 3.4 anomaly is the lowest such figure in July since 2010. Since weekly recordkeeping commenced in 1990, July 1998 was the only other summer following an El Niño winter that saw a comparably cool Region 3.4 anomaly. Both cases went on to have a very warm September and warmer than normal autumn. They diverged in December with the state of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) making a decisive difference. The SOI was +2.55. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.427. On August 3, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.074 (RMM). The August 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.781. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Some tree damage from Isaias: From Larchmont, NY: From Mamaroneck, NY:

Five photos and two short video clips from Tropical Storm Isaias: Early morning well in advance of Isaias’ arrival During the storm During the storm During the storm After Isaias’ departure Two short video clips: https://youtu.be/3mv0Q22aPdo https://youtu.be/IurUZ8HuTy0

Significant parts of Larchmont are without power. A number of trees have been uprooted or snapped.

Heavy rain is falling in Larchmont.

In the past hour, Philadelphia picked up 1.77" rain. That brings today's total to 3.61" (old record: 2.74", 1915).

That appears to be the case. The wind will likely pick up very quickly over the next hour or two.

In 26 minutes, Philadelphia has picked up 1.17" rain. That brings the daily figure to 3.01". The daily figure surpassed the old record of 2.74", which was set in 1915.

IEMBot PHI @iembot_phi · 20s PHI continues Tornado Warning [tornado: OBSERVED, hail: 0.00 IN] for Atlantic, Cape May [NJ] till 10:15 AM EDT

From Mount Holly: IEMBot PHI @iembot_phi · 3m PHI issues Tornado Warning [tornado: RADAR INDICATED, hail: 0.00 IN] for Atlantic, Cape May [NJ] till 10:15 AM EDT

IEMBot LWX @iembot_lwx · 29m At 7:35 AM EDT, 4 S Chesapeake Beach [Calvert Co, MD] 911 CALL CENTER reports TORNADO. MULTIPLE TREES REPORTED DOWN IN THE WILLOW BEACH COLONY AREA. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#LWX/20200

Morning thoughts... Tropical Storm Isaias has continued to accelerate north-northeastward. At 8 am, Isaias was moving toward the NNE at 33 mph. Very heavy rain was falling in parts of the Middle Atlantic region as Isaias was passing near the Chesapeake Bay. Already Washington, DC and Wilmington, DE have set daily rainfall records: Rainfall through 8:20 am: Washington, DC: 1.78" (old record: 1.33", 1974) Wilmington, DE: 2.04" (old record: 2.00", 1915) Conditions in the New York City , northern New Jersey, and southern Connecticut areas will deteriorate this morning. The heaviest rain will remain west of NYC. Winds will increase with gusts reaching 65 mph in places during the early and middle afternoon. A few locations could experience a tornado or waterspout, especially in any intense bands of rain that pass. Conditions will improve rapidly this evening and overnight.

000 WTNT64 KNHC 040316 TCUAT4 Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1115 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 Doppler radar imagery and surface observations indicate that eye of Hurricane Isaias made landfall in southern North Carolina around 1110 PM EDT (0310 UTC) near Ocean Isle Beach, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h). A weather station at Oak Island, North Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140 km/h). A data buoy near the coast of North Carolina has recently reported a minimum pressure of 988 MB (29.18 inches). SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 78.4W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky/Beven

Sustained winds as high as 55 mph with gusts to 70 mph.

Some rainfall amounts from the thunderstorms that moved through the NYC area as of 10 pm: New York City-JFK: 0.13” (52 mph gust); New York City-LGA: 0.35”; New York City-NYC: 0.54”; Newark: 0.34”; Teterboro: 0.20”.

Some areas had wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. JFK recorded one such gust.

EWR has picked up 0.24” rain in a thunderstorm in the last 10 minutes.