donsutherland1

Morning thoughts... After a cool start, today will be partly sunny and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 68° A warming trend will commence tomorrow.

After a brisk start, tomorrow will be fair and pleasant. Afterward, a gradual warming trend will likely commence. An impressive cold shot is likely in the Plains States tomorrow and Thursday. Afterward, the core of the cold air mass will move into the Southeast and then out to the Atlantic Ocean. The northern Middle Atlantic region and southern New England areas will only be grazed by this cold air mass. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The current PNA forecast provides a fresh hint of a noticeably warmer end to the month. The PNA is currently forecast by most ensemble members to fall to -1.000 or below during the second half of May. During the 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +8.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.441 today. On May 9 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.296 (RMM). The May 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.582 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (1.2° below normal).

The GFS hasn’t been verifying very well this spring. I am not sure whether it is having difficulty due to the seasonal transition or other issues. The ECMWF is also being upgraded, so this could be an interesting “model battle.”

Here’s the data: 6 days later: -0.444 10 days later: +0.662 On days 1-5, the PNA was strongly negative (< -1.000).

Record for May is -2.573, which was set on May 22, 1964.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 67° Philadelphia: 67° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and pleasant following an unseasonably cold start. A warming trend will commence afterward.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny but still cool for the season. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 60s. Generally somewhat cooler than normal temperatures with perhaps a day of much below normal readings will likely continue through the middle of this week before a gradual warming trend commences late in the week. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case. An impressive cold shot is likely in the Plains States Wednesday and Thursday. Afterward, the core of the cold air mass will move into the Southeast and then out to the Atlantic Ocean. The northern Middle Atlantic region and southern New England areas will only be grazed by this cold air mass. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The latest PNA forecast provides a fresh hint of a noticeably warmer end to the month. The PNA is currently forecast by most ensemble members to fall to -1.000 or below during the second half of May. During the 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +7.91 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.054 today. On May 8 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The May 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.039 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (1.2° below normal).

Morning thoughts... This morning, Central Park recorded a low of 47°, the 5th day this month that the low temperature was below 50°. Last year, there were 12 such days. The 1981-2010 average was 7.1 days and the 1991-2020 average is 6.6 days. May 2021 will likely finish with 6-9 such days. Clouds will gradually give way to some sunshine, especially south and west of New York City and Newark. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 63° Newark: 64° Philadelphia: 65° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and a bit milder. After midweek, a warming trend will commence.

Periods of rain and showers will end late tonight or early tomorrow morning and clouds will break during the day. Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal, generally rising into the lower 60s across much of the region. Generally somewhat cooler than normal to near normal temperatures with perhaps a day or two of much below normal readings will likely continue through the middle of this week before a gradual warming trend commences late in the week. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case. An impressive cold shot is likely in the Plains States Wednesday and Thursday. Afterward, the core of the cold air mass will move into the Southeast and then out to the Atlantic Ocean. The northern Middle Atlantic region and southern New England areas will only be grazed by this cold air mass. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The latest PNA forecast provides a fresh hint of a noticeably warmer end to the month. The PNA is currently forecast by most ensemble members to fall to -1.000 or below during the second half of May. During the 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +5.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.228 today. On May 7 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.041 (RMM). The May 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.368 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (1.2° below normal).

Unfortunately, that could well be the case. I haven’t been to the Greenwich Audubon lately, but will probably stop there at some point this summer. There has been an increase in coyotes in the Rye area. They haven’t bothered me, even when I have encountered them, but some people are spooked.

It’s possible, but some of these are young deer. There’s an area at which they used to graze that is now fenced off and is being turned into garden on the adjacent plot of land. At the same time, the deer population has increased over that of last year.

Sunshine gradually yielded to clouds. Light rain arrived during the late afternoon. Ahead of the arrival of the light rain, deer basked in open.

The low there was 37.

Martha’s Vineyard: 46 Monticello: 35 Mount Pocono: 32 Westhampton: 31

One year anniversary:

Danbury and Poughkeepsie reached 36 degrees. White Plains reached 39 degrees this morning.

Morning thoughts... Sunshine will give way to clouds. Showers and a period of rain will arrive during the afternoon or evening hours. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 62° Philadelphia: 61° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and a bit milder. After midweek, a warming trend will commence.

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1391224699682762752?s=20

The live app tracking it is probably off. I saw the breaking news moments ago.

The velocity of an asteroid or comet would be greater and that might allow for better predictions. The predictions of the rocket haven’t been great in terms of re-entry and impact. P.S. Multiple news sources are now saying it crashed.

The rocket can be tracked here: https://mapshot.app/pkg/longmarch.html

It’s now pegged to the new normals. I still suspect that it will turn much warmer in late May. That’s not yet on the guidance.

Any early sunshine will yield to increasing clouds tomorrow. It will be somewhat milder than today. Showers and rain could arrive during the afternoon or evening hours. Generally somewhat cooler than normal to near normal temperatures with perhaps a day or two of much below normal readings will likely continue at least into the middle of next week. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring. The SOI was +10.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.211 today. On May 6 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.740 (RMM). The May 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.740 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.0° (1.2° below normal).

Today was cloudy and cool. Temperatures remained in the lower and middle 50s. Occasional light rain and drizzle occurred from time to time. Some photos from the still evolving spring landscape at the New York Botanical Garden:

The sun is currently out in southern Westchester County.