donsutherland1

At 2 pm PDT, Seattle had a temperature of 96° today. That broke the daily and monthly record high figure of 90°, which was set on June 26, 2006. It also tied the monthly record that was first set on June 9, 1955 and tied on June 30, 1995 and June 25, 2017.

Seattle had a low temperature of 69° today. That broke the daily and monthly record high figure of 67°, which was set on June 26, 2006.

Continuing the discussion of the point made about changes in minimum temperatures, there is also a climate change component involved with the UHI Effect Here’s one paper on that topic that explains what is happening: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.4688 In sum, the combination of climate change and the UHI Effect have led to more rapid warming at night.

Fresh off yesterday's June-record 93° temperature, Victoria, BC has set a new daily record high for June 26. At 10 am PDT, the temperature was 86°. That broke the previous daily record of 85°, which was set in 2017. Elsewhere in the Pacific Northwest, 10 am temperatures included: Eugene, OR: 92° Lytton, BC: 92° Portland: 82° Seattle: 85°

In a few decades with a general business-as-usual energy policy, the right synoptic set up might produce such extremes. But it would still be a very rare event.

There are some differences between then and now. We’ve already seen more heat dome ridges pop up particularly over drought-stricken areas. The climate is also warmer than it was then. While the kind of extreme heat we’ve seen out West is probably not very likely, but cannot be ruled out, a sustained above-to-much above normal temperature regime remains likely.

Morning thoughts... It will be variably cloudy and warmer. Some drizzle or light rain is possible in places this morning. There could be an afternoon shower or thundershower. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 83° Newark: 87° Philadelphia: 85° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.7°; 15-Year: 82.7° Newark: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.2°; 15-Year: 86.5° Tomorrow will be even warmer. Yesterday, Victoria, BC set a June record high temperature of 93° and Lytton, BC set a daily record high temperature of 103°. This marked the beginning of a monster heatwave that will engulf the Pacific Northwest over the next few days. At its height numerous June and perhaps all-time high temperature records will tumble, including at Portland and Seattle. Today, Seattle will very likely set a new daily record high temperature. Portland will likely break its monthly record high temperature (102°) and could challenge its all-time record high temperature (107°). There is an implied 40% probability that Portland will reach or exceed its all-time high today. Tomorrow will be even hotter. Daily Records for June 26: Portland: 102°, 2006 (Forecast: 102° to 110°) Seattle: 90°, 2006 (Forecast: 95° to 101°) *-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

A very warm weekend lies ahead. Temperatures could approach or reach 90° in parts of the region on Sunday. The warmth will continue through at least mid-week next week. In the Pacific Northwest, a historic and potentially unprecedented heatwave began to descend on the region. In response, parts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia saw temperatures soar into the 90s today. A few locations even exceeded 100° including the following sites: The Dalles, OR: 102° Ephrata, WA: 100° Lytton, BC: 102°/38.7°C (old record: 101°/38.2°C) Omak, WA: 100° This weekend into early next week could see the most extreme heat parts of that region have ever experienced. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures could be challenged or broken. That includes the Portland and Seattle areas. After Monday, the core of the heat will shift somewhat to the north and east. Readings will remain much above normal in parts of eastern Washington State, Idaho, and eastern British Columbia. Records for select cities: Kamloops, BC: June 26: 102° (38.4°C), 2006 June 27: 99° (37.1°C), 2006 June 28: 100° (37.7°C), 2008 June 29: 102° (39.1°C), 2008 June record: 102° (39.1°C) All-time record: 105° (40.8°C) Portland: June 26: 102°, 2006 June 27: 98°, 2000 June 28: 100°, 2008 June 29: 97°, 1951 June record: 102° All-time record: 107° Seattle: June 26: 90°, 2006 June 27: 92°, 2015 June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008 June 29: 93°, 1987 June record: 96° All-time record: 103° Spokane: June 26: 100°, 1925 June 27: 102°, 2015 June 28: 105°, 2015 June 29: 98°, 1939 June record: 105° All-time record: 108° Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm. During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. That's an implied 55% increase tied to climate change. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. That's an implied 40% increase tied to climate change. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming. In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 83% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.1°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +10.54 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.210 today. On June 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.532 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.207 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.9° (1.9° above normal).

A heatwave of potentially unprecedented proportions for parts of the Pacific Northwest Region, including Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia is now in its early stages of evolving. June high temperature records will likely be shattered across much of the region. Numerous all-time high temperature records will likely be challenged or broken. On Monday, the most populated region in the Pacific Northwest could see widespread temperature anomalies more than 4 standard deviations above the normal figures. A small part of the region could experience temperatures more than 6 standard deviations above normal. Standardized Temperature Anomalies (6/28 18z): Select June, All-Time Records, Forecast Maximum Temperatures: Western sections of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, including Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver, will likely see the highest temperatures during the June 26-29 period. Elsewhere, exceptional warmth could persist into the opening days of July. Minimum temperatures will also approach monthly and all-time lows, especially in areas affected by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, namely Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver. Climate change is increasing the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events. One important mechanism is through wave resonance events (Mann et al., 2017). If one steps back to a larger hemispheric perspective starting near the beginning of June, one has witnessed the emergence of mega-heat domes in a "whack-a-mole" fashion in the Northern Plains, Southwest, and northern and eastern Europe (including northwestern Russia) that led to record heat, including some monthly or all-time record high temperatures. This latest heat dome is the fourth such major event this month. Updates: Recurrent Rossby Waves, Heatwaves, and Climate Change June 27, 2021: New Canadian National High Temperature Record June 28, 2021: New Canadian National High Temperature Record June 29, 2021: New Canadian National High Temperature Record Unprecedented North American Heatwave Scorches the Pacific Northwest Historic Nature of the Heatwave Attribution Study: 'Virtually Impossible' without Climate Change

Morning thoughts... Morning clouds will yield to a partly sunny day. It will become somewhat warmer. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 80° Newark: 84° Philadelphia: 81° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.5° Newark: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 84.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.2° A much warmer weekend lies ahead. An extreme to perhaps historic heatwave will likely begin to descend on the Pacific Northwest today. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s in Seattle and lower to middle 90s in Portland. It will become much warmer tomorrow throughout the Pacific Northwest. At its height numerous June and perhaps all-time high temperature records will tumble, including at Portland and Seattle.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and somewhat warmer. This coming weekend will turn much warmer. No excessive precipitation appears likely through the weekend. In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme to possibly historic heatwave will develop starting tomorrow. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures in cities, including Seattle and Portland, could be challenged or broken. The extreme heat will extend into parts of Canada, including British Columbia. Records for select cities: Portland: June 26: 102°, 2006 June 28: 98°, 2000 June 29: 100°, 2008 June record: 102° All-time record: 107° Seattle: June 26: 90°, 2006 June 27: 92°, 2015 June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008 June record: 96° All-time record: 103° Spokane: June 26: 100°, 1925 June 27: 102°, 2015 June 28: 105°, 2015 June record: 105° All-time record: 108° Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm. During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming. In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 79% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.1°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +14.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.548 today. On June 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.206 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.876 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).

Yes, UHI has played an important role with the rising minimum temperatures. That’s why I suspect that minimum readings have increased faster than maximum ones.

Morning thoughts... Today will be another sparkling summer day with bright sunshine, low humidity and comfortable temperatures. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 81° Philadelphia: 80° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.2°; 15-Year: 82.2° Newark: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 84.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.7°; 15-Year: 86.0° A much warmer weekend lies ahead. An extreme to perhaps historic heatwave will likely begin to descend on the Pacific Northwest on Friday. At its height numerous June and perhaps all-time high temperature records will tumble, including at Portland and Seattle.

After a cool start, today saw temperatures rise into the middle and upper 70s. Out West, Phoenix experienced the second largest deluge on record for June 23, as showers and thundershowers delivered 0.17" of rain. Tomorrow will again feature abundant sunshine, low humidity, and refreshing temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The end of the week and coming weekend will turn warmer. No excessive precipitation appears likely through the weekend. In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme to possibly historic heatwave could develop starting late this week. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures in cities, including Seattle and Portland, could be challenged or broken. Records for select cities: Portland: June 26: 102°, 2006 June 28: 98°, 2000 June 29: 100°, 2008 June record: 102° All-time record: 107° Seattle: June 26: 90°, 2006 June 27: 92°, 2015 June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008 June record: 96° All-time record: 103° Spokane: June 26: 100°, 1925 June 27: 102°, 2015 June 28: 105°, 2015 June record: 105° All-time record: 108° Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm. During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming. In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 75% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.5°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +6.75 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.549 today. On June 21 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.868 (RMM). The June 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.737 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.6° (1.6° above normal).

Ongoing climate change is driving an increase in Phoenix's temperatures. That increase is making hot synoptic patterns even hotter than they would otherwise be. In addition, one is witnessing a profound change in the ratio of hot days that exceed the 95th percentile for heat to cold days that exceed the 95th percentile for cold. The former is rising steadily. The latter has nearly disappeared (using 1971-90 percentile rankings).

Today’s article in the Washington Post illustrated what good journalism looks like. The story concerning the extreme to perhaps historic heat in the Pacific Northwest explained: The forthcoming outbreak of heat, made worse by human-induced climate change, will further dry soils and reinforce drought conditions. The drought, in turn, will make future extreme heat events more likely… The intensity of last week’s heat wave, like the one forthcoming, is connected to human-caused climate change and the buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/06/22/heat-wave-pacific-northwest-historic/ In short, the article provides the full information as to why the heat event is likely. It contains no material omissions into misleading readers that such events are random occurrences. Readers deserve the facts. Any publication that materially omits the climate change connection is not fulfilling its fiduciary journalistic responsibility to its audience. In effect, such publications are posting opinion masked as news coverage, as the intervention aimed at depriving readers of the climate change connection is subjective in nature and that subjectivity transforms otherwise objective stories into hybrid stories that are part fact and part opinion.

Morning thoughts... This morning, temperatures were in the 50s across the region. 7 am temperatures included: Albany: 50°; Allentown: 51°; Bridgeport: 58°; Islip: 57°; New York City: 57°; Newark: 57°; Philadelphia: 57°; Poughkeepsie: 52°; and White Plains: 55°. Brilliant sunshine will be accompanied by a refreshing breeze. After a cool start, temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 77° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.0°; 15-Year: 81.9° Newark: 30-Year: 84.3°; 15-Year: 84.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.5°; 15-Year: 85.7° Tomorrow will be fair and pleasant. An extreme to perhaps historic heatwave will likely begin to descend on the Pacific Northwest on Friday. At its height numerous June and perhaps all-time high temperature records will tumble, including at Portland and Seattle.

Tomorrow and Thursday should feature abundant sunshine, low humidity, and refreshing temperatures. The end of the week and coming weekend will turn warmer. No excessive precipitation appears likely through the weekend. In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme to possibly historic heatwave could develop starting late this week. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures in cities, including Seattle and Portland, could be challenged or broken. Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm. In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 73% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +1.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.182 today. On June 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.736 (RMM). The June 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.800 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.6° (1.6° above normal).

1911 and 1933 had at least one 100-degree day. 1900 and 1922 did not.

Unfortunately, the advance coverage in the Seattle Times omits the role climate change is playing in increasing the likelihood and severity of such events. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/weather/cooler-temps-arrive-tuesday-and-wednesday-but-seattle-could-see-100-degree-weekend/ Good coverage provides the “why,” which is more than the specific synoptic pattern.

Last year, Phoenix experienced a historically hot summer. Although the extreme heat held off through May this year, a severe heatwave developed toward mid-June. The June 2021 heatwave was among Phoenix's and Tucson's most severe June heatwaves and their most severe heatwave this early in the season. This heatwave developed as an extreme upper air ridge evolved during an era of rising June temperatures and an ongoing drought. An extreme heat event commenced at Tucson on June 11 and it commenced at Phoenix on June 13. Such events are likely to become even more frequent in the years ahead. Anthropogenic warming is creating a growing likelihood of long-duration extreme events through more frequent wave resonance events (Kornhuber et al., 2016 and Mann et al., 2017). Already, the frequency and intensity of compound summertime hot extremes (events that combine daytime and nighttime heat where such temperatures are above their 90th percentile for their calendar) has been increasing especially in geographic locations that include the U.S. Southwest (Wang 2020). The increase in forcing associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gases is the dominant driver of this outcome (Wang 2020). Table 1: Phoenix's High Temperatures during June 12-20, 2021 Table 2: Phoenix's Average June Temperatures (30-Year Moving Average) Table 3: Phoenix's Record High Maximum Temperatures Table 4: Phoenix's Record High Minimum Temperatures A portion of this heatwave qualified as the 8th Extreme Heat Event (EHE) on record for June, as at least 3 days saw the maximum , temperature exceed the 97.5th percentile (Phoenix: 115° or above; Tucson: 110° or above), the high temperature average exceeded the 97.5th percentile (Phoenix: 115° or above; Tucson: 110° or above), and all high temperatures exceeded the 81st percentile (Phoenix: 110° or above; Tucson: 105° or above) in June-August high temperatures for the 1971-2000 base period (Clarke, et al.,2014). The extreme heat event began on June 11 in Tucson and June 12 at Phoenix. Table 5: Phoenix's Extreme Heat Events in June (1896-2021) Additional Records: Earliest 116° or above high temperature: June 17, 2021 (old record: June 19, 2016 and 2017) Earliest 4 consecutive 115° days: June 15-18, 2021 (old record: June 19-22, 1968) Most consecutive 115° days: 6, June 15-20, 2021 (old record: 4, June 19-22, 1968; June 25-28, 1979; June 25-28, 1990; July 26-29, 1995; July 28-31, 2020; and, August 16-19, 2020) Earliest 4-day average high temperature of 115° or above: June 14-17, 2021 (old record: June 18-21, 2017) Earliest 5-day average high temperature of 115° or above: June 14-18, 2021 (old record: June 17-21, 2017) Earliest 6-day average high temperature of 115° or above: June 13-18, 2021 (old record: June 18-23, 2017) Earliest 7-day average high temperature of 115° or above: June 13-19, 2021 (old record: June 18-24, 2017) Earliest 8-day average high temperature of 115° or above: June 13-20, 2021 (old record: June 18-25, 2017) Earliest mean temperature of 100° or above: June 15, 2021 (old record: June 17, 2008) Earliest 2-day average mean temperature of 100° or above: June 15-16, 2021 (old record: June 17-18, 2008 and 2015) Earliest 3-day average mean temperature of 100° or above: June 14-16, 2021 (old record: June 17-19, 2015) Earliest 4-day average mean temperature of 100° or above: June 14-17, 2021 (old record: June 18-21, 2017) Earliest 5-day average mean temperature of 100° or above: June 13-17, 2021 (old record: June 18-22, 2017) Earliest 6-day average mean temperature of 100° or above: June 13-18, 2021 (old record: June 18-23, 2017) Earliest 7-day average mean temperature of 100° or above: June 13-19, 2021 (old record: June 18-24, 2017) Earliest 8-day average mean temperature of 100° or above: June 12-19, 2021 (old record: June 17-24, 2017) Earliest 91° minimum temperature: June 17, 2021 (old record: June 22, 2017) Earliest 92° minimum temperature: June 18, 2021 (old record: June 25, 2017) Earliest 2 consecutive 90° low temperatures: June 16-17, 2021 (old record: June 21-22, 2017) Earliest 3 consecutive 90° low temperatures: June 16-18, 2021 (old record: June 29-July 1, 2013) Earliest 4 consecutive 90° low temperatures: June 16-19, 2021 (old record: July 8-11, 2020) Most consecutive 90° low temperatures in June: 4, June 16-19, 2021 (old record: June 26-27, 1990; June 29-30, 2013; June 26-27, 2016; June 21-22, 2017; and, June 25-26, 2017) Earliest 2-day average low temperature of 90° or above: June 16-17, 2021 (old record: June 21-22, 2017) Earliest 3-day average low temperature of 90° or above: June 16-18, 2021 (old record: June 24-26, 2017) Earliest 4-day average low temperature of 90° or above: June 16-19, 2021 (old record: July 4-7, 2018) Earliest 5-day average low temperature of 90° or above: June 16-20, 2021 (old record: June 22-26, 2017) Earliest 6-day average low temperature of 90° or above: June 16-21, 2021 (old record: June 21-26, 2017) Highest average June minimum temperature after over 4 days: 91.0°, June 16-19, 2021 (old record: 89.8°, June 24-27, 1990; June 25-28, 1990; June 26-29, 1990; June 27-30, 1990; and, June 23-26, 2017) Highest average June minimum temperature after over 5 days: 90.6°, June 16-20, 2021 (old record: 90.0°, June 26-30, 1990 and June 22-26, 2017) Tucson also experienced extreme heat. As with Phoenix, Tucson has seen a steady increase in June minimum and maximum temperatures. This outcome has increased the statistical probability of extreme heat events. Table 1: Tucson's High Temperatures during the June 11-21, 2021 Heatwave Table 2: Tucson's Average June Temperatures (30-Year Moving Average) Table 3: Tucson's Record High Maximum Temperatures Table 4: Tucson's Record High Minimum Temperatures Table 5: Tucson's Extreme Heat Events in June Additional Records: Most consecutive days with high temperatures of 110° or above: 8, June 12-19, 2021 (old record: 6, June 24-29, 1994) Most consecutive days with high temperatures of 111° or above: 7, June 13-19, 2021 (old record: 6, June 24-29, 1994) Most consecutive days with high temperatures of 112° or above: 7, June 13-19, 2021 (old record: 4, June 25-28, 1990) Highest average high temperature over 8 days: 112.5°, June 12-19, 2021 (tied record set during June 23-30, 1994) Updates: Phoenix has its hottest June on record

Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy and it will turn noticeably cooler. Showers and thundershowers are likely. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most places this morning before falling sharply during the afternoon and evening hours. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 78° Philadelphia: 76° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.7°; 15-Year: 81.6° Newark: 30-Year: 84.0°; 15-Year: 84.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 85.4° Tomorrow will be fair and pleasant.

If there were any question that the book’s author is profoundly out of touch with contemporary climate science understanding, this interview should erase all reasonable questions: https://www.foxnews.com/media/physicist-tells-tucker-carlson-climate-change-is-fiction-of-the-media.amp

Parts of the region again saw the temperature reach or exceed 90°. The heat will now depart through the remainder of the week. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and noticeably cooler. Showers and thundershowers are likely. Wednesday and Thursday should feature abundant sunshine, low humidity, and refreshing temperatures. The end of the week and coming weekend could be unsettled. In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 70% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -13.71 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.361 today. On June 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.809 (RMM). The June 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.068 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.5° (1.5° above normal).

Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy and still very warm. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s in most places. A few places could reach 90°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 86° Newark: 92° Philadelphia: 90° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.4°; 15-Year: 81.3° Newark: 30-Year: 83.7°; 15-Year: 83.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.2° Tomorrow will likely see more clouds, along with showers and thundershowers. It will be cooler.