donsutherland1

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloud and warm today. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 86° Newark: 90° Philadelphia: 87° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.3°; 15-Year: 84.8° Newark: 30-Year: 85.8°; 15-Year: 86.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.8°; 15-Year: 87.2° Next week will be generally warmer than normal.

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region today. 90° readings were recorded in Baltimore, Harrisburg, Hartford, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC: 90° Days for Select Cities (through August 6): Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 17 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 35 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 15 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 22 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 17 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 17 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 28 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 23 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 12 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 30 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 16 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 17 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Out West, Phoenix is on course to record its 12th day of the year with a mean temperature of 100° or above. That would tie 2006, 2012, and 2013 for the 10th most such days. Since 1896, 16 years have seen 10 or more such days. Only one year, 1995, came before 2000. Since 2010, only 2014 and 2015 had fewer than 10 such days. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm. Readings will likely rise into the middle 80s with some hot spots reaching the upper 80s. Next week could see the potential of a heat wave in parts of the region, especially from Washington, DC to Philadelphia. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month. Next week could also see the development of a much above normal temperature regime in the Pacific Northwest. There is the possibility that Portland could experience its second extreme heat event of the year. That would make 201 the first year on record with two such events. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -18.03 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.569 today. The preliminary Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern figure was +3.998. That set a new August record high PNA for the 3rd consecutive day. On August 4 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.895 (RMM). The August 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.057 (RMM).

8/5 Arctic sea ice extent: 5.902 million square kilometers (JAXA) Smallest decline from 8/5-minimum (2000-20): 1.047 million square kilometers Smallest decline from 8/5-minimum (2010-20): 1.489 million square kilometers Statistically and historically, there is virtually no chance that the minimum extent will be at or above 5 million square kilometers. Implied probabilities of a minimum extent of 4.5 million square kilometers or below: Unadjusted: 92% Adjusted (conservative bias): 75%

FYI: https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/a-look-back-at-very-bad-predictions-of-global-cooling/

Morning thoughts… It was an unnerving night last night in Seattle as drops of water began falling from the sky just before midnight. Seattle’s second longest streak without measurable precipitation ended at 51 days. It will be mostly sunny and very warm today. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 88° Newark: 92° Philadelphia: 90° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.9° Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 87.3° Tomorrow will be another warm day.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer. Readings will likely rise into the middle 80s with some hot spots reaching the upper 80s. Next week could see the potential of a heat wave in parts of the region, especially from Washington, DC to Philadelphia. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month. Next week could also see the development of a much above normal temperature regime in the Pacific Northwest. There is the possibility that Portland could experience its second extreme heat event of the year. That would make 201 the first year on record with two such events. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -18.39 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.390 today. The preliminary Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern figure was +3.734. That further increased the August record positive PNA. On August 3 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.059 (RMM). The August 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.295 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… Western sections of the area will be mostly sunny while early clouds will give way to sunshine elsewhere in the region. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 85° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.1° Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 87.5° Tomorrow will turn much warmer.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and somewhat cooler than normal. Afterward, a warmer regime will try to develop. Next week could see the potential of a heat wave in parts of the region. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month. Next week could also see the development of a much above normal temperature regime in the Pacific Northwest. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -10.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.196 today. The preliminary Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern figure was +3.210. That exceeded the August monthly record of +3.160, which was set on August 1, 2009. On August 2 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.295 (RMM). The August 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.390 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and cool. Showers and a period of rain are likely later today and tonight. Locations such as Islip, Providence, and Boston could reach or exceed 1.00” of rain. Temperatures will likely reach upper 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 77° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.2° Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 87.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 87.6° Heat will likely return during the weekend.

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy. A developing system will head northward along a frontal system and bring a period of moderate to significant rain to parts of the region. The area of heaviest rain will likely extend across southern New Jersey and Long Island into the eastern half of New England. Generally somewhat below normal readings will persist into the weekend. Afterward, a much warmer pattern could develop for a time. The temperature could be pressing 90° during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was +6.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.012 today. The preliminary Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern figure was +2.931. That smashed the daily record of +2.116, which was set in 2018. On August 1 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.394 (RMM). The July 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.327 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy and comfortable. Temperatures will likely reach upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 80° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.6°; 15-Year: 85.3° Newark: 30-Year: 86.1°; 15-Year: 87.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 87.8° Heat will likely return during the weekend.

I don’t think any of them will reach 130. 125-126 is possible during the height of the heat wave.

Generally somewhat below normal readings will persist into the weekend. Afterward, a much warmer pattern could develop for a time. The temperature could be pressing 90° during the weekend. In the near-term the temperature will likely reach 110° or above in Phoenix for the first time since July 11. In southern Europe into the Middle East, an extreme heat wave will continue to scorch the region. Numerous areas in Greece, Turkey into the Middle East saw readings at or above 110°. Damman, Saudi Arabia reached 123°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was +4.92 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.762 today. On July 30 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.410 (RMM). The July 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.931 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and comfortable. Temperatures will likely reach upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 84° Philadelphia: 82° Heat will likely return next weekend.

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and somewhat warmer than today. The medium-range looks even warmer as temperatures could be pressing 90° during the next weekend. Overall, August will probably finish near normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was -1.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.762 today. On July 30 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.932 (RMM). The July 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.872 (RMM).

These are interesting papers and I look forward to reading them.

That model was blown out of the water so to speak last year with a forecast minimum extent near 4.48 million square km. https://www.arcus.org/files/sio/31109/ucolorado_nsidc_slater_barrett.pdf Last year's minimum extent was the second lowest on record at 3.555 million square kilometers (JAXA), or nearly 1 million square kilometers below the Slater Model forecast. If 2021 has a melt season that matches the slowest of the 2000-20 period, Arctic sea ice extent would fall to 4.891 million square kilometers. A melt comparable to the slowest 2010-2020 melt season would bring it to 4.420 million square kilometers. The median 2010-2020 melt would bring it to 4.236 million square kilometers. The ice is thin. At some point, it will almost seem as the bottom has fallen out when the thin ice melts away. I suspect we'll wind up with a minimum extent figure of 4.4 million square kilometers, but can't rule out a much larger drop in the end. The implied probability of a minimum extent figure of 5 million or more square kilometers is currently about 11%. The probability of the 5.15 million square kilometer minimum on the Slater Model is just under 8%. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy and cool. Some showers are possible. Temperatures will likely the middle and upper 70s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 75° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and a bit warmer. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 85.6° Newark: 30-Year: 86.3°; 15-Year: 87.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.0° 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 83.5° Average temperature: 83.0° Average error: 1.4° Newark: Average daily forecast: 88.0° Average temperature: 87.4° Average error: 1.5° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 87.4° Average temperature: 87.2° Average error: 1.6°

Sorry, I hadn’t seen this post. GaWx provided the numbers.

After an unseasonably cool start, temperatures rose into the upper 70s with a few lower 80s in parts of the region. New York City finished with a monthly mean temperature of 76.0°, which was 1.5° below normal (1991-20 baseline). A few record low temperatures were tied or broken: Albany: 49° (tied record set in 1978) Allentown: 50° (old record: 51°, 1936) Islip: 55° (tied record set in 2001) White Plains: 53° (old record: 55°, 1956) Tomorrow will be variably cloudy. There could be some showers. It will be unseasonably cool. The work week will start with somewhat warmer readings and a return to sunshine. Overall, August will probably finish near normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +7.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.711 today. On July 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.872 (RMM). The July 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.296 (RMM).

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.7 -1.0 0.2 0.9 1.6

Morning thoughts… This morning, the temperature fell to 60° in New York City’s Central Park. That was the lowest July temperature since July 4 when the low was also 60° and the coolest temperature in the second half of July since July 24, 2007 when the mercury dipped to 58°. Overall, it was tied with 1891 and 1936 for the 4th lowest July 31 temperature. It will be mostly sunny and cool. Temperatures will likely reach upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 81° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 85.7° Newark: 30-Year: 86.4°; 15-Year: 87.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.4°; 15-Year: 88.2° Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

Fair but somewhat cooler than normal weather will prevail through the weekend. Tomorrow will be especially cool. Temperatures will likely start out in the 50s outside of New York City and rise only into the upper 70s in and around the City and possible lower 80s from central New Jersey southward. Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +13.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.713 today. On July 28 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.303 (RMM). The July 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.435 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (1.5° below normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach lower 80s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 86° Philadelphia: 85° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.9°; 15-Year: 85.8° Newark: 30-Year: 86.5°; 15-Year: 87.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.4°; 15-Year: 88.3° Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend. Down south, many parts of the Gulf Coast, including New Orleans, Mobile, Greenville, and Pensacola, will likely see temperatures in the upper 90s and heat indices of 110° or above today and tomorrow.

Through 7:41 pm, New York City had picked up 0.43" of rain, bringing July's total to 11.05". That is third highest July figure on record. In the wake of tonight's rainfall, fair but somewhat cooler than normal weather will take hold and continue through the weekend. Saturday could be especially cool. Temperatures will likely start out in the 50s outside of New York City. Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +12.37 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.887 today. On July 27 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.434 (RMM). The July 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.299 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (1.4° below normal).