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Damn .... game on ! Simon Lee @SimonLeeWx Nothing quite like seeing NASA's GEOS forecast a 240-hour lower-stratospheric heat flux event that would rank among the biggest ever observed for any time of year in MERRA2 reanalysis. https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html… 3:30 PM · Dec 18, 2020·Twitter Web App

Check out griteaters thread. Cool stuff going on near Greenland and hopefully retrograding blocking will manifest itself.

Anthony Masiello @antmasiello Replying to @griteater There are some interesting analogs that spring up in extended range with low latitude winter storms in them. What more can be said for the Northeast; it's on. 11:45 AM · Dec 18, 2020·

We are due for a surprise eventually. Of course hoping for the low lands.

Likewise, thanks for the .3

I continue to feel that any weakening of the Nina has a lag effect, based on the readings of several highly respected mets. I value DT's thoughts on the matter, we will have to see how it plays out. Having a weaker SPV and an improved NAM state can only help us, in a broad brush view. As psu stated we really need a - AO to get opportunities of snowfall, and then beyond that a -NAO in the correct area, and maybe rising or oscillating such as a HA event for the big one. A delicate balance as we all know. This year there seems to be a disconnect the SPV and the TPV. Also it appears, at least so far that we are in play when it comes to cold air delivery. As CAPE mentioned the one thing is the source region has been an issue. Canada has gotten colder, but not severely so, at least not yet. In Jan that source region concern becomes less of an issue. Another positive has been AAM. Moving forward, a jet extension and the eventual outcome hopefully of a +PNA and even a -EPO will set the stage for a colder and and snowier January. January looks to have decent potential to produce for our area. Also, look for any PV displacements and even minor SSWEs. Again, maybe our area seems favored for a PV orientation near Hudson Bay. Feb. to hard to take a jab at.

Ah, the old days of the Euro/ ETA combo ..... when they agreed Accu-Weather looked like a genius, versus the American models back in the 1980's and 1990's. Hopefully the old NAM was called the ETA, little early still.

YES !

When the mean gets to 6 to 8 inches 6 to 7 days prior then we can get excited. Last winter was a dismal showing with low odds and probabilities. Getting 1 or 2 inches prior to December 31 st seems reasonable. The re-load in January may provide the real deal to us in this forum.

This time lapse is amazing . I wish it was my deck, and my little creatures.

Really thinking that any SPV weakening / elongations / re-location, ie. to the Hudson Bay region for example, really benefits us in January versus other areas of the NH. Growing more likely something will happen, but to what degree is still uncertain.

A true blessing for the weather weenies, and for many others, after a year of difficulty and sadness for many.

Lets get a MECS PLEASE i would speculate that due to improved climo,combined with the strat/blocking evolution a rather potent winter storm in the East in early to mid January.

Ying and Yang...... wonder what happens in the East between December 25 th and January 7 th 2021.

Today's forecast has a greater spread out in time, although I doubt we achieve some of the upper member's forecasts. May very well consolidate in a more narrow channel, more so negative versus + or neutral, in a few days. That has happened twice in the last 11 days.

Yeah yeah, even though I grew up in South Philly, I always get pissed when Philly gets crushed with 6 or 14 inches and I get 2 inch or 4 inch events here below the Canal in Middletown. But, anyway you view the event from yesterday I believe it is more of a positive , even for our region, versus a negative. The stat below is interesting from a Philly perspective.

Ural blocking

As you mentioned, positives regarding snowfall and cold. Big differences versus last year at this time. We track. @SimonLeeWx I've annotated the 35-day GEFS (note this is yesterday's run) with my thoughts on the evolution of the U-wind... 5:49 AM · Dec 17, 2020·Twitter Web App Significant wave-1 "attack" on the stratospheric vortex toward late December in recent GFS runs. Z500 anomalies constructively interfere with climo wave-1 pattern. Leads to sig. deceleration & warming in this run & could open door to further wave-2 activity if trop. conducive

31 and snowing here, grass getting covered and looking awesome out there !

Continued consolidation targeting a - AO with a significant drop next week, and then possibly remaining negative for the remainder of the month. A +PNA spike is also forecasted next week with a - NAO. Seems a storm window exists between the 22 nd to the 28th. -

Most interesting is the potential that if this goes down it may tend to favor our area of NA.

That is our HECS

Looking at the entire 360 hour animation loop from the EPS shows several disturbances rotating under a block. Also looking colder as well. By that time a better chance with temps I believe.

Now this I like, looking better and better upstream. Possible implications for late December and early January if we develop the + PNA / - EPO.

Mentioned the other day the tendency for most storms to hug the coast and be coastal huggers , it has been a while we have had a true bench mark storm. As for CAD look at these run over run temp changes in my area, Southern NJ and Delaware in general. A function of NW Atlantic SSTs possibly and as you mentioned nothing really special in terms of CAD although the source region of the CAD is the real issue. And of course the warmer Atlantic SSTs for the Eastern areas combined with the storm track. Maybe this shifts as we head into early January.