frd

I am not sure what to believe now really. Isotherm said there was hope at the end of January . February's tendencies were always to head warmer , nobody really wants to look forward to March at that time I'm thinking of spring and summer activities. When I look back and read HM's older posts I was under the assumption that he thought any sudden stratospheric warming event would favor our region. but possibly I was mistaken.

Yes, that is true and very concerning. I believe the warmest year last year, or a tie, per Ryan. Also, the Atlantic ocean temps are very warm, ponding the power of hurricanes this summer as some studies show recurves getting closer and closer to the major cities on the East Coast. .

On the mark, I know some don't want to hear this, but the base state shift, combined with warmer waters , elevated jet , hyper West Pac warm pool , very warm temps in the summer and Fall at higher latitudes all seem to be causing this issue in my opinion. Maybe we here in the East at a mid latitude are at a greater disadvantage because of our location downstream of the Pac and the proximity of the warming Atlantic .

As you are aware some claim the Nina is a non-player compared to the new regime that has set up over the past few years. Referring to the new base state.

Wonder if we recycle the pattern and it actually produces possibly later in February even though many have written February off

@psuhoffman great post above and I agree near the 29 th is the line in the sand. There is potential there.

Still say we need Pac help and we need a cold source region. Maybe the models simply can't handle the temps in the long range. Many - EPO calls have failed. I still believe there is potential. But. the threat windows have been pushed back for one reason or another. There is no denying that. Really feel you need to be 72 hours out from modeled snow to feel confident these days. Another possibility is that the -EPO may look better ( at long leads ) in a few days from now. I wouldn't hold any model forecast to be the real outcome regardless of what it shows.

BAMWX will claim they saw this first.

@poolz1 @MattHugo81 · 5h This needs watching...it's not been the 'cleanest' of SSW's so far this winter but has been the case for weeks the strat vortex is well and truly disrupted and further warmings and potential splits remain possible which could still influence late winter. Late Jan a key period...

He is not alone. 2 days prior to this time stamp looks enticing on the East Coast

GFS does not have the proper physics to handle this upcoming complex weather evolution. Like CAPE said, the model will eventually react to the block and the press of the baroclinic zone.

OMG this deepens to a beast, I would speculate and imagine unreal wave breaking event would be possible in the North Atlantic . Things getting more interesting for late month and the first week of February.

This time the axis is more West to East . Just happy this this period has some hits. Long way to go, but still a positive.

Cold enough

Near this date there could be a big one, maybe, possibly. Seriously, at this time frame that is so beautiful.

I have lost respect for them, however, Allan seems enthused and the general depiction is over running during the pattern evolution.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I personally feel the probability of above normal climo snowfall is heightened from Jan 25 th to Feb 10 th. Time will tell.

Pretty

Yes, we have gone to Easterlies twice so far . Two days ago, as psu stated, we were a a record negative for the date . Yesterday was close I believe by 1

Me like even if it is the CMC

As HM stated a while back, seems to be moving up in time now from the start 20 to 30 days.

Recovery questionable @SimonLeeWx Replying to @SimonLeeWx The GEFS 35-day shows the point of uncertainty (abrupt spread growth) in the 10 hPa evolution around Jan 25-30. Some members continue to recover the vortex toward average, while others decelerate or even go for another U reversal. I think this is a point to keep eyes on! 12:58 PM · Jan 16, 2021·Twitter Web App

@poolz1

Could be nice early Feb. even beyond as well