frd

2.5 inches

Think your correct. What gives? A real busted forecast here. The models were not very good for northern DE. Will never even achieve warning criteria I think, unless it snows here tonight at least 3 inches.

Nice locations If it snows here in this period I don't think it will be going anywhere.

Cold air source still there in 10 days

I believe so. I believe to get a triple phaser you need intense blocking to combine in dropping and displacing the Arctic jet and polar jets along with the southern jet in perfect harmony. . Also, intense baroclinic energy and very cold temps. Regardless, it appears a powerful storm in the East is possible.

Snow has started up again here

The Holly Grail of storms

Better lift should continue to push SW

Baroclinic energy off the charts next week with this potential event

Euro has 30 hours of additional snow in my area !

NE FORUM AREA

Boring here in Middletown, nothing . Areas to my East have no radar returns . Hopefully the pivot drops South more than going West. This waiting and hoping is a tedious process.

psu, What's causing the subsidence over most of southern NJ? Will that fill area fill in tonight as well ?

Is the the best model output so far for the our forum from the HRW ? Looks good in my area.

Just mentioned that last page back. Hopefully it continues. Windy as hell here.

visibly trends that the comma head extension is shifting SW and pivoting the last few frames. @JakkelWx what radar do you use? I am frustrated with the Mount Holly radar, since the update.

Clipper pattern? Progressing to loading pattern for a MECS

This move South supports the evening Euro

Wow

Euro = Redemption

link ?

Very much so, The snow area missed me by miles. A crazy gradient from West to East. To say the least I was bummed.

Mount Holly, some cool wording. They always do an exceptional job in the AFD. In response to the the deepening surface low and increasing cold air advection, the wintry mix along I-95 will quickly change back over to snow Monday morning, and the rain/snow line will push back toward the coast throughout the day. The strongest winds and heaviest snow rates are not forecast to align (strongest winds likely occurring in rain and mixing), therefore precluding the need for a Blizzard Warning. A change over to all snow is expected on the back side of the storm, even all the way to the coast, as the system begins departing into Monday night. The exact placement and strength of the low will dictate exactly where the heaviest snow falls. The complexity of this system lies in details of the system transitioning from an overruning precip regime to a mesoscale banding (frontogenetic forcing) and wrap-around precip regime early Monday. The latest 12Z guidance suite has continued trending the f-gen banding potential a bit northward, which suggests the greatest potential for this to occur across portions of northern New Jersey (north of I-195) and eastern Pennsylvania (Lehigh Valley and east/north). West of the f-gen forcing, some guidance suggests that a dry-slot will advect in around daybreak west of the Philly metro. The storm total snowfall forecast was updated to reflect these features and the mixing farther south/west. Generally 6-12" is forecast for around the Philly metro with less south/east and more to the north. The axis of f-gen can certainly change over the coming forecast updates. Snow totals in the banding may exceed the broadbrush ~18-24" storm total snowfall locally that is currently forecast in these areas.

NE MD, Northern DE, getting it. Notice the difference here from Philly ( 17 inches ) to Wilmington , De ( 8.7 inches )