frd

Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx Euro weeklies have strong -EPO and +PNA with -AO conditions by 3rd week of January, which would favor another big cold outbreak (1/23 EIA week).

Interesting trends centered on this time period. https://x.com/i/status/2004599913410081210

Do you believe in the Jan mid month warm up before the pattern realigns with an improved Pac? Seems the best Jan snow potential is Jan 6 th to the 10 th, and then after Jan 18 th.

Merry Christmas to everyone.

Atmospheric River of snow, incredible!

4 inches here , a very wet snow, but very pretty. Our greyhound enjoyed prancing in the winter wonderland.

3 to 4 inches would be heavenly !

Thats fine with me. I read previous times where Decembers that featured a mostly -PNA have a following Jan with a overall + PNA. Hope that repeats next month, along with some timed moisture. Even a little snow would be nice.

Merry Warm up. Need to go back in time to get even a normal winter. I miss you Nor'easters and SECS/ MECS .

Given the proper set up it could have been a SECS, but alas the Pac did not allow it. At that time we did have a - AO and a -NAO. But the PNA was upgly.

Happens every year around the 22 nd of December like clockwork. Not surprising really, although we have a stout - WPO there is too much Pac jet momentum. The Pac always rules as seen the past two weeks with a - AO and a - NAO and still nothing to show for it. I don't really care what folks say about climo as we had extreme cold air in Canada and a - AO and a - NAO, but in December you need a good PAC and a + PNA . We lost out because of the PNA.

Euro seasonal is warm generally in the January to March period.

He rebranded!

GEFS also trending to a better, taller + PNA, hope it happens !

General odds of a moderate accumulating snow, at least should increase, the next 15 to 25 days with the - SOI dive and a re-set of the MJO.

Snow started here an hour ago. Nontreated surfaces have a coating currently. Looks winter-like. 27 F.

Rather dramatic drop in the AO forecast during the past 24 hours.

Update Dec 1

One slight bright spot is the AO is finally starting to drop, but the PNA sucks.

This has been an ongoing issue for many years it seems. Believe even @bluewave posted on this a while back. And, its even more of an issue down in these parts. Need a locked in slowly moving high not racing due East.

Mount Holly for my area late week. Brrr Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Friday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

I keep checking bluesky to see whether HM ( aka Anthony M. ) posted any updats regarding his December weather thoughts. Not seeing anything. I know someone posted a while back he was enthused for this Jan.

Active and cold = I can dream.

That looks consistent with yesterday's I believe, or the day before. But, consistency does not prove accuracy in this case. Although maybe the ensembles here are better than the AI model itself.

Interesting observation about the AIFS deterministic model by Tomer. ( for future reference ) Tomer Burg @burgwx 2h So far this case seems to be more of an AIFS Ensemble than an AIFS deterministic success (at least on the synoptic scale) - the AIFS quickly trended more amplified and now has a stronger and farther north cyclone than the deterministic ECMWF: