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Always seems the least likely failure option(s) becomes reality here most times.

Blocking and favoring our area might still be in the cards, I give it some more time.

The AO looks to go to - 4 SD . That would raise the bar mid month and beyond for a higher level threat. Another improvement today with the AO forecast.

Next week we are in a hybrid pattern of regimes favoring frequent snowstorms of lesser intensity . A combo of the Greenland high regime and the Alaskan Ridge regimes. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1887293421917700567 From Tomer, Note I said frequent snowstorms - I didn't necessarily say *major* snowstorms. The *biggest* snowstorms historically are more likely to happen during Greenland High regimes, while Alaskan Ridge regimes can favor more frequent snowstorms, but with a lower individual ceiling.

That is correct Yes, in the very old days before Eastern there was a BB about weather called Wright weather

@psuhoffman my local area tends to do better in several scenarios. Intense and deep CAD where erosion of the airmass in minimal. Temps starts out in the lower 20's or teens before the snow arrives. Moderate events where by the time the dry slot arrives most of the snow has fallen already. Nino seasons with cold high pressure to my North or NW , active STJ, over-riding storms with a very cold pre airmass gives this area high end snow totals, thinking 2003, 2009, 2010, to a degree 2016 Nina seasons with moderate to severe AO. 1996 My area tends to do well with a moderate -AO , and a moderate -NAO +PNA backdrop, for huge snows the NAO and AO need to be pretty negative. I do not participate in snows that hit Rehoboth, De because I am too far inland. I can benefit from severe Nor'easter Snowstorms if the low pressure area offshore stalls or does a loop. Thinking the late 1970's. I can do well with clippers if the clipper is robust. Overall I can score if temps cooperate in I-95 storms. I appreciate your posts and look forward to at least one lowlands SECS in the next 30 days.

Middletown DE. 19709

Exactly. Some folks, even myself, take models at long leads too seriously.

Do you think the blocking migrates further South as we near the end of the month in a position more favorable and impactful to our area. Really talking the NAO block. Thoughts

Some good news is much appreciated !

Is that the two day warm up ?

Heights should get lower in time. All I know is we suck here with snow in Delaware. However, I will keep the faith and go with @brooklynwx99 ! for late month. The best is yet to arrive.

Wonder if that might retrograde SW in time?

You are posting the EPS, and I posted the NAO forecast from the CPC. I would expect differences. We will have to revisit in days 11 to 15. However, I do believe the NAO from the CPC source will trend negative and even significantly negative in time, because we have a -NAO loading pattern in place, that "should" lead to a robust - NAO late month.

Here is the NAO forecast

- AO day over day forecast decline has stopped for now. Middle of next week is at its lowest on this forecast grid, right near the storm threat. Looking at the NAO its decling but never goes negative, however the loading pattern I believe is still in process. Would think a -NAO forecast should eventually show itself.

Makes sense, @psuhoffman you still in the mindset of a decent later month , early March pattern ? Anything you see currently have you thinking otherwise. I have not checked out the MJO recently, but the general indices look decent, and hopefully we progress to a more typical blocking scenario that raises the bar in the lowlands and everywhere else as well.

Maybe this trends South. Still a lot of time.

And, for the most part did not do well.

Debbie downers were actually correct stating SER is very powerful plus in years past when things looked great the eventual correction was a cold air dump out West. It might be the new normal. Models not great. It's happening yet again.

Rather large area of significant snowfall. Is that large an area typical this far out?

Some folks think because its Feb everything will go North, or trend North if given enough time. I wouldn't bet the house on that assumption. There are some dynamics in play that could once again, as you mention, push everything South for the largest threat. For me the two real issues are temps and track. Next week temps should be fine temp-wise, but track still very much in question. Hopefully we all win out. Of course some positive development today with the Euro and the GFS. So we track.

Improved trends on the AO, some members tank it to extreme negative values, - 4 to -6 SD. This ups the potential of 6 inch or greater snowfall in our area. The drop in the AO from +4 SD back in October to negative is even more pronouced ( quicker ) this go around. ( even though we started at +3 SD versus + 4 SD ) Depending on SPV and future heat fluxes, the real bottom to the AO may not even occur until March, in a repeating cycle downward. Also, improvements in the NAO and the PNA are noted as well.

So true, its like the Holy Grail for setting up MECS.

Not me, other forum, I think that's silly.