Rjay

Meanwhile, this was the HRRR at the moment Upton put out that AFD

THE FAVORED NAM AND ECMWF SOLNS DROP THE LOW INTO THE 970S OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 MPH. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. BASED THIS ON THE NAM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE PEAK OF THE STORM. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... IT SHOULD BE A RAGING BLIZZARD AT 6AM...WITH HVY SNOW...DAMAGING WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXTREME NWRN ZONES SUCH AS ORANGE AND WRN PASSAIC MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL WRT WINDS. THE LOW ESSENTIALLY STALLS SOMEWHERE S OF CAPE COD DURING THE DAY...THEN DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TUE NGT BRINGING AND END TO THE STORM. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE STORM SETS UP...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE DRY SLOT COULD WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE N...CUTTING OFF THE HEAVIER PCPN WHERE THIS OCCURS. W OF THIS AREA WILL BE WHERE THE BEST DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THIS...WITH THE 18Z NAM PLACING THIS BAND OVER THE CITY. THE SNOWFALL FCST REMAINS IN THE 20-30 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS. A LITTLE LESS FCST ACROSS NWRN ZONES...BUT THE LATEST NAM SUGGESTS EVEN OVER 2 FT INTO ORANGE COUNTY. THE MODEL PRODUCES 2.7 INCH LIQUID OVER THE BRONX...SO THERE IS DEFINITE 3 FT POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYS. WHERE EXACTLY THAT ULTIMATELY PLAYS OUT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

...CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD INTO TUESDAY... 238pm ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT... * LOCATIONS...NEW HAVEN...MIDDLESEX...NEW LONDON AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT. HUDSON...EASTERN BERGEN... EASTERN ESSEX AND EASTERN UNION COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY. SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...BRONX...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...SUFFOLK...QUEENS AND NASSAU COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. * ACCUMULATIONS...20 TO 30 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. * SNOWFALL RATES...2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

The morning of the storm

I think you need more of this and less pattern recognition posts.

45 for a low here

Did you get into the 30s?

Doorman vs the EPS

FRG 64/29 ISP 62/28

Odd. My dp has been in the upper 20s for hours now.

64 here and it was my high so far.

My low was 49

There's too many banter threads.

Tropical Storm Jonger

Played really well against a team with far more talent.

zzzzz

Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...VICKY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 34.7W ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 34.7 West. Vicky is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a westward motion is expected to continue through late Thursday. A west-southwestward motion is forecast to begin by Friday and continue through dissipation. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Vicky is expected to become a tropical depression Thursday, weaken to a remnant low on Friday, and dissipate Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$

53 for a low