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Everything posted by Rjay
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Lots of them
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2019 Hurricane (all named Tropical storms) forecast contest
Rjay replied to Roger Smith's topic in Tropical Headquarters
16/9/4 May 1/0/0 June 1/0/0 July 2/1/0 August 4/3/1 September 5/4/2 October 2/1/1 November/December 1/0/0 -
Boxing Day had the worst blizzard conditions I've seen in my area. Also the srongest winds during a snow storm that I've experienced.
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I remember walking home from school twice in one week in knee deep snow. Not being able to lift my legs out of the snow so I dragged my feet through it
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URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005 ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED... HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH... RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!
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I remember when the NAM gave me 52" 24 hours before Juno lol. I saved the map but can't find it
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If anyone has anything good from the Feb 13th, 2014 insane front-end dump they should post it
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The models completely missed how far west this beastly northern steam s/w would be. It dropped due south out of Canada. The GFS caught it first.
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HPC went on to toss the next 3 gfs runs and tossed the NAM's next 3 runs as well.
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From the NWS in Taunton LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGHLIGHTS* POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12ZNAMAS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WEHAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...ASWELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM/THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THEBENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROMHPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THISMORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONETHING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCYBETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TOTHE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TOWAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJORCHANGES
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Upton usually updates throughout every storm. In most of pur big ones they started at 6-10". The totals would creep upward with every update. Here's a random one from Jan 2016.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1138 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010 ...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY... NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>070-074-271245- /O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-101227T2300Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- 1138 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY... A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...18 TO 24 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 30 INCHES POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AND STRONG WINDS CAUSING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR ZERO AT TIMES...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO DOWN SOME POWER LINES...TREE LIMBS...AND CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * WINDS....NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.
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@bluewave loved it too. Too bad the image he posted is gone. (Most images from 7-8 years ago are gone)
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Talk about past storms in here. Posts all your favorites and the ones you hated too. It might help keep the main disco threads from going too far off the rails. TIA.
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Guess The Date Of The Next 12"+ Snowstorm In The OKX Zones
Rjay replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
December 25th 2018 -
Hmm, what month is it?