WxUSAF

To respond to @psuhoffmans posts from yesterday, the difference between H5 and surface is pretty weird here. Heaviest snow is north of H5 shortwave track usually. Using 0z euro as an example, even the southern stream wave tracks roughly from RDU to ORF. That should be pretty good for us! Northern stream goes well to our north! Should be good for…Albany? Ultimately, I think our problem mostly is the northern stream isn’t diving south farther west as it did with some of the MECS-HECS runs. So we’re getting either a partial phase or it’s even acting as a kicker to the southern wave (ggem).

Hello darkness my old friend

2 nights ago, most guidance showing 1-2’ MECS: 4.5 new pages in the LR thread Last night: mostly a total disaster: 25 new pages in the LR thread

Seasonal trend won’t stop

Going back to 12z gfs, but CIPS analogs like northern areas more. From Cody Snell on Twitter.

From what I see at 96h, northern energy looks better than 12z? More consolidated and moving east. Southern wave looks weaker.

EPS also tending to shear out the trop PV last few runs. That would limit the HECS-like chances.

Sleet in Columbia but temps are summer-like

Each suite we’re getting 1-2 globals with the 20”+ HECS, 2-3 with a 8-15” range, and one with more of a 4-8” deal. They’re just taking turns which is which. Although euro hasn’t been on that lower end for awhile.

HM has spoken

If a partial phase and a turn up the coast is the fail scenario, them I'm definitely onboard. Would love to be able to take a complete whiff on the phase off the table as a fail option.

Area wide warning level event as a "floor" is still quite nice

Don't know yet snow-wise, but GGEM sort of looks like 6z GFS. Can't quite phase, but we still get snow. Gets going later and hits NYC-BOS.

Well...GGEM is a pretty big step back from 0z. Much less phasing early. Still getting going, so might do a late save however.

A big dark deep cave

Gimme the Big Dog Wed-Thurs and I'll be ready for gusty shower season

Snowing in Columbia. 37F

I’m 100% sure (ok, 99%) that they will be an east coast storm this week. 80-90% sure it’s going to snow a lot somewhere between RDU/ORF and BOS. 75% sure of shovelable snow in LWX WFO area. 99% chance of Ji being disappointed

We'll pass the 100 hour mark with the 0z runs tonight. Storm starts forming in 60-ish hours. We're getting pretty close. There's going to be a storm nearby. Miss risk seems mostly associated with something that hits Norfolk area then slides OTS.

6z gfs was a major step toward a euro-like solution. Much closer to a phase than any earlier runs.

Dendrite bomb CCB ongoing with 12-20”+ on the ground. Terrible run

Actually more spacing between the trop PV and the southern shortwave on 18z vs 12z. So the storm is entirely southern forced. That actually makes it a bit stronger than 12z (no interference from the northern stream), but WAY far from a phase like the Euro/GGEM/Ukie.

Waking up to a 20F CCB death band

Hang it in the fucking Louvre