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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    They are sliding down the east side of the big central Canada ridge. They need to go to our west/south to have any chance, but guidance has shown it enough that it seems possible. Cold air is lacking though, to put it mildly.
  2. WxUSAF
    Per GFS, Wed/Thurs and next Saturday
  3. WxUSAF
    But second chance next Saturday provides mashed potatoes
  4. WxUSAF
    Ooof we have to figure out how to cool the boundary layer for that northern stream low next week. That “should” be 1-3/2-4”
  5. WxUSAF
    Gfs keep hope alive for a Mt PSU stat padder
  6. WxUSAF
    If we had a morning low 25F below normal that would be the lead story on all local news
  7. WxUSAF
    Morning low of 50. About 25-27F above normal.
  8. WxUSAF
    Also am looking forward to it
  9. WxUSAF
  10. WxUSAF
  11. WxUSAF
    This is where we talk about the ravens game??
  12. WxUSAF
    lol dew point almost 60F. That might eat through the parking lot piles.
  13. WxUSAF
    Gfs has the coastal transfer farther north and hence that backend precipitation farther north also. eta…GGEM shifted north also.
  14. WxUSAF
    Webb swapping flame emojis for weenie emojis
  15. WxUSAF
    Webb sans flame emoji
  16. WxUSAF
    Two days of -25F
  17. WxUSAF
    If the Euro's right, we pop a +30F above normal day on Friday. GFS keeps the boundary more to the south. When was the last -30F below normal day at any time? Quick glance...the pre-Xmas December 2022 cold shot didn't do it. No days in February 2015 reached that (although almost). January 1994 got a -35F departure at DCA. Anything since then?
  18. WxUSAF
    GGEM has a similar look with less expansive precip in the 6-12z Monday timeframe. Column is fine above 950mb. Question appears to be can heavy precip cool the surface down to 33-34 so some snow can accumulate. 35 is really borderline and in my experience, 36 is too warm.
  19. WxUSAF
    Snowpack hanging tough on top of a giant tank of liquid nitrogen
  20. WxUSAF
    Looks like northern stream probably if anything? Better chance for New England for sure there. Not sure we can squeeze something underneath us.
  21. WxUSAF
    Make it 98 with even seasonable cold and we’d like it a lot IMO
  22. WxUSAF
    Still probably 80% snowcover or more in Columbia, but that lifetime is measured in hours now.
  23. WxUSAF
    Nice when eps looks the best of the 3 ensemble systems. I was liking GEFS most the last couple days. All look maybe 24-72 hours away from BN 850 temps and troughing at the end of their runs. Surface temps have a longer lag, but I’ll remind folks we don’t need BN temps to get snow (although it can help).
  24. WxUSAF
    Almost every gfs op run the last couple days has ended with a storm happening or approaching. And I know…300+ hr gfs…I’m not taking any literally, but it gives me hope that there are enough scenarios where we can be back in the game pretty quickly.
  25. WxUSAF
    It will. 0.0” from here until spring is the least likely outcome imo
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