WxUSAF

If the Euro's right, we pop a +30F above normal day on Friday. GFS keeps the boundary more to the south. When was the last -30F below normal day at any time? Quick glance...the pre-Xmas December 2022 cold shot didn't do it. No days in February 2015 reached that (although almost). January 1994 got a -35F departure at DCA. Anything since then?

GGEM has a similar look with less expansive precip in the 6-12z Monday timeframe. Column is fine above 950mb. Question appears to be can heavy precip cool the surface down to 33-34 so some snow can accumulate. 35 is really borderline and in my experience, 36 is too warm.

Snowpack hanging tough on top of a giant tank of liquid nitrogen

Looks like northern stream probably if anything? Better chance for New England for sure there. Not sure we can squeeze something underneath us.

Make it 98 with even seasonable cold and we’d like it a lot IMO

Still probably 80% snowcover or more in Columbia, but that lifetime is measured in hours now.

Nice when eps looks the best of the 3 ensemble systems. I was liking GEFS most the last couple days. All look maybe 24-72 hours away from BN 850 temps and troughing at the end of their runs. Surface temps have a longer lag, but I’ll remind folks we don’t need BN temps to get snow (although it can help).

Almost every gfs op run the last couple days has ended with a storm happening or approaching. And I know…300+ hr gfs…I’m not taking any literally, but it gives me hope that there are enough scenarios where we can be back in the game pretty quickly.

It will. 0.0” from here until spring is the least likely outcome imo

Webb with an anti-flame emoji!?

It’s all we got for awhile so why not? If I lived on Mt PSU or in Winchester I’d definitely be watching.

We had “The Look” in 97-98 multiple times and got phasing southern stream coastal bombs 3 times I think? Just that temps were in the 40s and the rain/snow line was around frostburg…

Car thermometer read 12F in the USDA farm fields north of Greenbelt

Low of 13.6

Why are a couple eastern shore county schools closed and the rest delayed ?

Ugh that’s a tough loss. Already exhausted of hearing about Mahomes, Kelce, and Ta-Ta for next week.

What do I think of the NFC championship including 2 teams the ravens completely demolished? I’m for it

GFS is verbatim an example for Hoffman’s book with a perfect track at peak climo with a torched boundary layer.

All 3 ensemble systems are consistent with pattern evolution the first few days of February. The big pac jet extension is very short-lived and it weakens after a couple days. Then the trough out west starts to undercut the ridge in the east and the ridging rotates north and west across the continent. Keep this rolling forward a few more days and the reds and blues are mostly in the right places. Now do we need 7-10 more days to recharge cold air sources at peak climo? TBD, but I think it’s faster than that despite elephants and BAMwx flame emojis.

Low of 16, 20 currently

I had that as a kid!!

My son’s birthday is V-day and I promised him snow for it back in like October. Sooo…need something to happen by then.

This is the difference this year with Monken. Opposing defenses can slow them down for a time, but not the whole game.

Reset seems to have worked