WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Incredible event on my son’s 5th birthday. Kicked off an epic next 5 weeks.
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Love how cold it would be before and during this event. Upper 10s/low 20s on euro. Even during daytime. That’s pretty unusual for late season snow events obviously.
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Forecasting by snow maps isn’t the ideal method of course, but there’s an important difference here. Last week’s ensemble maps favored Tuesday, but had a lot of time spread with some snow from yesterday and some from tomorrow. So the big totals were like 96-120 hour totals. 24 hour totals were always more in the 5-6” range. This storm’s ensemble snow maps aren’t “contaminated” by that spread in storms and timing. And I know you’re 50% trolling, but I love you anyway.
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it did not. Glancing blow I think.
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Northern stream shortwave/trop PV is just totally sheared out this run. Very different than other guidance and its own previous runs.
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It’s a banger
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Northern stream typically has more uncertainty/variability at short to medium lead times. That could be good or bad in this context.
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Yup was just thinking that. We’re only ~5 days out from this developing.
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So every global gives us something? Seems like a solid 12z suite. Hopefully eps is encouraging.
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GEFS continues to favor something suppressed pretty far southeast/OTS.
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Ukie really digs the trop PV and is capturing the coastal low as the run ends. Snow would definitely continue past that point. R/S line way south. HECS for RIC in progress.
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I don’t believe that Saturday morning stuff on the GFS and NAM at all. Hope I’m wrong.
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Foot for OCMD. 4-6” for metros, less north, more SE.
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I guess any particular threat in that period. So wouldn't be surprised if we get a couple more SECS-level events! Just don't know that we can pull a rabbit out of the hat to get a MECS+.
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Certainly seems to be. I absolutely see the potential of the pattern starting in 1 week and going beyond that. But I'd bet more on some sort of SECS/"meh" result than the MECS-HECS just because something probably will f this up from maxing potential. Hope I'm wrong.
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I'm not even the far NW crew and I'm getting twitchy at seeing snow maxes south of me...
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There's reasons MECS+ are really rare in Ninas...
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34 with mist and drizzle. Miserable.
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Lock that ish UP
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Hmmm...to wipe or not wipe the snowboard, that is the question. I've gotten burned before in marginal temp environments where new snow won't accumulate on bare surfaces.
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2/11-12: 4.4" Seasonal total 14.5" Above last season and 2012-13 now. Not quite still in the "good Nina" totals of 21-22 (18.2"), 20-21 (17"), 17-18 (19.2"), and 10-11 (19.7").
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4th place, not bad
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Probably going to report 5” this morning lol
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Measured a fresh 1” on the snowboard so 4.4” total. Had some good dendrites overnight so probably lost a little to compaction. Very light flurries now.
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3.4” first spotter report. Only 0.5” in last 1.5 hours. Should be near my final guess of 4.2” in the end.
