WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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Apple weather helpfully predicting 23-29” storm total
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A trade we’re making with this stronger phasing is more precip for a mix risk. And potentially that’s a trade that could get us more snow in total. Going to see some ridiculous QPF predictions from the mesos by tomorrow. Technically 99% isn’t a lock?
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14” was horrible?? lol
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No. It was a pounding WAA thump (14” for me), then drizzle all day, and then a few more inches of snow in the evening with the ULL.
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RE: mixing, I was thinking that to myself yesterday that a giant phasing trough over Colorado would normally be screaming cutter. Only that beast of a NAO/50-50 combo forces it south. But shows how much wiggle room we have here for a major event.
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Good morning weenies. People have been mentioning Feb 2014 at times for this storm. I don’t remember the synoptic setup, but I remember that beatdown of a WAA thump. Maybe this is a colder version? 12” EPS mean is bonkers. Hitting NAM/RGEM range for storm start time with the 12z suite!
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I would think this probably wouldn’t be ingested for 0z. Probably 6z?
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Only 3 complete whiffs and 1 scraper on 18 EPS per @Weather Will’s maps? As I recall @NorthArlington101said it was like 7 and 2 for 12z?
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I went out about 15mins ago. Maybe the tiniest red/purple shading on a 10s exposure mixed in with sky glow from light pollution?
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Great work @SnowenOutThere!
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Got to smell the sleet to get the goods
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In some of the lightest green #blessed
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0z going to have a cutter to Detroit. But glad it and the AI shit out all tha bad chili from 12z
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Early Thursday also my mental mark on the wall
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My mental response: THEY aren’t saying shit. Your dumbass app is saying 24”. I wouldn’t say any amounts to normies right now. WTOP just said “at least 1-4” for areas SW of DC.” Like I totally get being conservative, but any amounts looks pretty dumb right now! If I HAD to make a forecast right now, it would be a lot more than 1-4”!
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What has stuck out to me today is that there seem to be a pretty wide range of phasing scenarios that still give us a major storm. GFS skunked us because the northern wave was weak and the southern wave didn’t eject and there was no phasing. Seemingly any other combination of shortwave options is giving us SOMETHING. That to me is a major confidence booster that we’re not relying on perfect phasing or timing to get a snow.
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Not sure it matters, but looks the opposite to me?
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I’ve had both my kids and a neighbor text me about the storm today. And it was just mentioned in a work meeting (although they didn’t ask for my opinion). Normies gonna get crazy in another day or two if things stay on track.
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I mean, I’m happy to travel and want to be part of this meeting, but I’m going to miss potentially the biggest snow in 6-10 years over my dead body
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@Herb@MAWS I’ve got a work flight Monday afternoon. If they suggest I move it to Saturday to get ahead of the storm that’s going to get a big ol’ negatory from me.
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That EPS trend gif might be the most exciting thing I saw out of the 12z suite.
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North shift bay-bee
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Didn’t see the EuroAI ensembles posted, but has 1” QPF to DC-Annapolis or so. Based on H5, looks to my eye like the mean has better phasing than the Op EuroAI. Overall a really strong 12z suite. Not as consistent as 0z and 6z thanks to the GFS and AIGFS, but otherwise great consensus.
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That looks really good to me?? More tucky tucky, more northern edge members, fewer OTS?
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Precip before midnight Sunday. My eye was starting to twitch with this thing slowing down 6 hours every 6 hours.
