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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    ^busy season coming up for you
  2. WxUSAF
    Maybe chill on this until we get fantasy GFS snow
  3. WxUSAF
    Hopefully enough for widespread first freeze at least.
  4. WxUSAF
    Probably something like 0.3" for a storm total. ~0.55" for October. Excited for another 0.2" this weekend!
  5. WxUSAF
    About 0.25” for a 3 day total so far
  6. WxUSAF
    Can’t get rates above “moderate drizzle”
  7. WxUSAF
    It’s raining!
  8. WxUSAF
    Now do Harbaugh!
  9. WxUSAF
    0.05” overnight. 0.06” storm total lol
  10. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    WxUSAF replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Oh my mistake. That definitely changes the sensible outcomes.
  11. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    WxUSAF replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    The way that plot is made, doesn’t Dec-Jan 2001 mean Dec 2001-Jan 2002??
  12. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    WxUSAF replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    ^a lot of those +QBO/Ninos are great winters for us. Maybe it’s the difference between the SE and our area. The longwave pattern looks good in the -QBO map (with some small quibbles), but it doesn’t seem to work out for our area too well.
  13. WxUSAF
    .01”! Forecast verified!
  14. WxUSAF
    Sports is sadness
  15. WxUSAF

    Winter 2025-26

    WxUSAF replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    This looks really good, but 2 of these recent or fairly recent Nina analogs were really shitty winters. And Dec 2006-Jan 2007 was awful, although Feb 2007 was cold and fairly snowy.
  16. WxUSAF
    #TeamNAMRideOrDie
  17. WxUSAF
    This is the part of the winter storm cycle where we all say we never REALLY thought we were getting 1-2’ and it will be nice just to see the grass turn white.
  18. WxUSAF
    Would still be a nice soaking rain for most. It’s the best of the options at this point outside the NAM.
  19. WxUSAF
    Euro is basically some light rain tomorrow afternoon and evening and that’s the whole deal
  20. WxUSAF
    Well 12z meso runs are starting off positively FWIW (very little)
  21. WxUSAF
    OMG I just LLLLOOVVVEEEEE Ninas!
  22. WxUSAF
    Forecast is always going to be very razor-edge when you’re counting on a phase happening right on top of us essentially. The “locked in” coastal storms phase much farther southwest.
  23. WxUSAF
    41 for me. No 30s. Boooo
  24. WxUSAF
    There’s sort of two parts to this. The first is tomorrows afternoon into early Sunday with a deformation axis between the developing coastal and the northern stream shortwave. That seems fairly uniform on guidance? Then the second part is rain from the coastal. That still is uncertain and overnight runs definitely lowered the odds of the big 1”+ amounts.
  25. WxUSAF
    @mappytown mesonet already down to 39! Going to make a run at first freeze.
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