WxUSAF

GFS is verbatim an example for Hoffman’s book with a perfect track at peak climo with a torched boundary layer.

All 3 ensemble systems are consistent with pattern evolution the first few days of February. The big pac jet extension is very short-lived and it weakens after a couple days. Then the trough out west starts to undercut the ridge in the east and the ridging rotates north and west across the continent. Keep this rolling forward a few more days and the reds and blues are mostly in the right places. Now do we need 7-10 more days to recharge cold air sources at peak climo? TBD, but I think it’s faster than that despite elephants and BAMwx flame emojis.

Low of 16, 20 currently

I had that as a kid!!

My son’s birthday is V-day and I promised him snow for it back in like October. Sooo…need something to happen by then.

This is the difference this year with Monken. Opposing defenses can slow them down for a time, but not the whole game.

Reset seems to have worked

Sheesh../offense needs a reset

Ravens receivers are not getting open for Lamar. He’s extending time and he isn’t finding them downfield which happened so much during the season.

Enough snow blowing off my roof that I can probably measure a few tenths new snow on my snowboard

I mean, that’s the peak of peak climo, so if we can get some fluke amidst an otherwise bad pattern, that’s the time for it to happen. Messy/mixed/flawed events are a normal part of climo for us! 2” that gets washed away, tail end slop following a rainer like December…they’re not glamorous, but that’s how we get to climo most times it happens.

Gun to head, I think we get another 7-10 day period that has a small event on the front and a MECS-scale event in the back, although maybe with more mixing in the metros than we’d prefer. Then another 1-2 smallish events after into the first 2 weeks of March. If it played out like that, most of us would be 100-125% of climo.

This is the first time I can remember an inverted trough verifying *south* of its modeled position. They are notorious for showing up north of guidance. Although I don’t have the photographic memory of our snow fails like others on here.

January 19, 2024: 5.4” total: 10.9” basically exactly 50% of climo

Low of 14. Go Ravens!

Goofy ass evolution that will never happen, but 6z gfs gets it done Jan 30-31

Cheers weenies, we did it

LWX definitely got a bit overzealous with that 5-8” update. 3-5/4-6” seems like the reality for most of that zone.

5.4”, 0.1” last hour. That looks like it pending streamers. Sun peaking through even it is still snowing very lightly.

It’s definitely winding down, but still slowly adding up. Let’s see if we can get in on those streamers.

5.3”, 0.2” last hour. Light snizzle.

5.1” total, 0.2” last hour. Warning verified! Crazy. Basically pixie dust/snizzle now. 31F.

4.9”, 0.5” again last hour. I’ve beaten the early week storm which seemed crazy as of yesterday. Still snowing well.

4.4”, 0.5” last hour

Not me, a couple miles to my west in downtown Columbia I think. This year my reports are showing as “Elkridge 2 W”, although another spotter’s reports show the same. In previous years I was “Elkridge 3 W”, so apparently NWS thinks I moved?