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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    It may not produce but it's hard to ask for a better looking pattern than what we have on tap beginning about a week from today. Christmas won't be spent at the grill, flipping burgers and wearing shorts to say the least according to the EPS.
  2. John1122
    The GFS and Canadian are getting into agreement with a few bouts of wintry precip for 40 and north as the holidays approach. The pattern definitely supports a frozen precip outcome for our area. It would be an early event for most of the area, as non-elevated areas usually see their first snowfall between December 28th and January 6th on average across the region. Last year the GFS was really good at sniffing out storms in the longer range. It was rarely great at their strength, often overamping everything like the NAM. This time frame will be the first true winter threat test for the new core they've updated.
  3. John1122
    Merry Christmas Eve!
  4. John1122
    Another late run major winter storm with rain to ice for snow for the areas Carvers mentioned earlier but it eventually spreads all the way to the mountains. Bitter cold air behind it. Lows in the single digits and low teens, even colder in deeper snowpack areas in Kentucky. Obviously not set in stone but just shows the potential we have over the Dec 16th and beyond period.
  5. John1122
    Nice wrap around event on the GFS that run. Inside 200 hours now.
  6. John1122
    If the Euro is correct, we will at minimum see a snow showery day coming soon. The 850s will be frigid and squeezing out moisture.
  7. John1122
    Just a bit of a run to run difference on the GFS. There's a 45 degree difference in our area from 18z to 00z. I don't know which, if either will be correct but right now it's just not a usable model for anything beyond 5 days. The GEFS doesn't agree with the op, at all. The Canadian is unchanged. The cold arrives and we have snow showers around the 15th/16th.
  8. John1122
    I believe it had Memphis at 107-109 for several days on end. It verified about 6-10 degrees cooler.
  9. John1122
    I've noticed it, even before the upgrade, struggling with long range temperature extremes. I remember it went on a streak of advertising desert southwest temps for the middle part of the country in September. The heatwave happened but the GFS was 5-10 degrees too warm with it when it saw it in the longer ranges. Winter is much more volatile and even harder to predict from day to day, because temperatures can vary much more greatly in winter vs summer.
  10. John1122
    The cold arrives around the 15th and looks like it sticks around as we approach Christmas on the Ens. We get a snow event on the Canadian just after the shift to cold. The GEFS puts some of the coldest air, relative to normal, in the world into the Lower 48 as we approach the 1st day of solar winter.
  11. John1122
    The OP GFS wasn't great as it tries to dump the cold into Mexico and it struggles to move East. Other models, including the GEFS not so much and the cold progresses East just fine. I've seen some mets talking about the GFS having major long range warm bias issues with the new version.
  12. John1122
    Starting to get some looks like the last two years with cold banked against the Apps, BN over our region and AN over the Carolinas and Georgia.
  13. John1122
    Yep, the GEFS started to cave towards the EPS with a favorable Pacific as well, at least for now. All the major ens models are now on board with it.
  14. John1122
    At 240 the GFS is +10 to +12, the Canadian is -10 to -12 over the area.
  15. John1122
    Torch city on the gfs. It's either going to coup the European/Canadian models or fail in epic fashion.
  16. John1122
    I don't trust any model that quickly breaks down huge blocks. It could happen but they usually jump the gun by a few weeks.
  17. John1122
    The EPS continued its trend of Pacific cooperation. Good look in the EPO/PNA areas and great Atlantic too. I'd love to see that establish for a good 4-5 weeks from mid-December into mid to late January.
  18. John1122
    Euro Control is suppressed and cold with a system that actually gives the Northern Gulf Coast states a decent snowfall.
  19. John1122
    The CFS is what it is, but it's been "break out the vodka" cold into mid-January.
  20. John1122
    The EPS has been trending towards a + PNA. If that continues and comes to pass, along with the -AO/-NAO that isn't just a recipe for potential, it's normally a near lock for cold/wintry weather. The EPS is also reeling in the set up, unlike the GFS who is kicking the can all over the place from run to run.
  21. John1122
    Does any site have the old GFS or is it abandoned? It was really good last year with storm timing. It saw a couple from beyond D12 that verified.
  22. John1122
    Robert from WxSouth said the extreme blocking being shown would cause model madness but added that basically the physics of how climate works would win out. He said the large -NAO would send storms across the south. He said they might be winter storms for anywhere from Texas to Tennessee or the deep south to North Carolina, but that the pattern would be ripe after mid-month as the -NAO sets up shop.
  23. John1122
    Models almost universally see pattern changes too quickly. Either breaking them down or beginning them. While it can snow here and has many times in the first half of December, I never really start looking for serious winter threats until after December 15th-20th.
  24. John1122
    Gonna end up at about -.8 for the month imby. Norris OBS station is -1.4. Oneida also ended BN. Looks like most of the mid-state ended up around -.5 to +1ish. Western areas are about the same as the mid-state. East of 75 looks like the furthest from normal, it was generally +1 to +3 in the far eastern areas.
  25. John1122
    https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/
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