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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Anyone in the mid-state seeing anything from that band?
  2. John1122
    Gonna see who wins the war, all models (except maybe the NBM) or my point forecast. (my high today has been 29) This Afternoon A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 34. North wind around 5 mph. Tonight Snow showers, mainly before 3am. Low around 11. Wind chill values between 1 and 6. North wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  3. John1122
    The 3k has a 6 inch dot close to me now.
  4. John1122
    It took me from 1 inch to 4 inches.
  5. John1122
    The 18z HRRR snowfall output looks almost exactly like the Euro but with a little less in the southern valley around downtown Chattanooga.
  6. John1122
    Finally getting that foggy look, the flakes are small, the temp has dropped a degree and snow is beginning to cover up raised surfaces where the snow had melted off.
  7. John1122
    This is a pre-event portion. Most accumulations are supposed to be tonight. My forecast for tonight is 80 percent snow, low 12, accumulation 1/2 inch. It's MRX vs the Euro and all other modeling except the NAM now.
  8. John1122
    Yes.
  9. John1122
    The clouds are thick here and the temp is 29 but the snow is very light so far.
  10. John1122
    MRX updated and lowered my snow totals to 1/2 inch.
  11. John1122
    12z Euro.
  12. John1122
    Snow beginning, 29 degrees. Already have snow on the ground mostly, so everything will stick. We seem to get this and then I get a lull per my forecast.
  13. John1122
    Euro at 12z Maintains 3 at the center of the Plateau, rising as you head east. 6+ knox east. 1.5-2 in Hamilton Co.
  14. John1122
    28 degrees, mostly cloudy skies. Snow is predicted to start here at 2pm then a break for a while before it redevelops.
  15. John1122
    AI GFS ticked west slightly with it's precip shield. In line with most of the non-NAM modeling.
  16. John1122
    Mostly cloudy and 28 here.
  17. John1122
    Canadian is basically 4+ Plateau, 2.5 Chatty, 5+ everywhere else.
  18. John1122
    The RAP is running and closer to it's wheelhouse, 2 inches in Crossville, 3 over Holston, 4-5 my area, 5-7 down to Knox, 6-8 and still snowing eastern areas. Most of Hamilton around 1 inch but 9/10ths over downtown Chattanooga.
  19. John1122
    Wrong thread.
  20. John1122
    I hope to do better than 1 inch but this being the one time the NAM is correct wouldn't shock me. Earlier this winter one of the events it kept insisting I was getting 3-4 inches until the bitter end but I got about an inch. The Euro/RGEM gave me about an inch from that one. Here we have the opposite totals but the same models disagreeing.
  21. John1122
    For reasons beyond me, the GFS/NAM have a major snow shadow over Southern Campbell County that suggest a downsloping effect off Cross Mountain, but I don't think the precip with this one is moving SW to NE like a typical system, but that's the direction of the drying it's trying to show. They often try that with traditional sliders where the precip is moving up from Alabama.
  22. John1122
    They have me with 1 inch, which is closest to the NAM still. The Euro/RGEM/HRRR/ICON/GFS have 4+ for me.
  23. John1122
    MRX has apparently pushed all in on the NAM judging by their snow maps. (I'm sure it's the NBM, but it weighs the NAM family heavily the closer we get)
  24. John1122
    Currently the model battle looks like the NAMs vs everyone else. The NAMs have dried up considerably. Everyone else maintains so far.
  25. John1122
    The use of so many bad models but not the Euro Op is crazy. Especially since they use the GFS op. I'm not sure that there is actual human involvement in it though. I think it simply blends the models noted on the dashboard and spits out outdated material.
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