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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Yes.
  2. John1122
    The clouds are thick here and the temp is 29 but the snow is very light so far.
  3. John1122
    MRX updated and lowered my snow totals to 1/2 inch.
  4. John1122
    12z Euro.
  5. John1122
    Snow beginning, 29 degrees. Already have snow on the ground mostly, so everything will stick. We seem to get this and then I get a lull per my forecast.
  6. John1122
    Euro at 12z Maintains 3 at the center of the Plateau, rising as you head east. 6+ knox east. 1.5-2 in Hamilton Co.
  7. John1122
    28 degrees, mostly cloudy skies. Snow is predicted to start here at 2pm then a break for a while before it redevelops.
  8. John1122
    AI GFS ticked west slightly with it's precip shield. In line with most of the non-NAM modeling.
  9. John1122
    Mostly cloudy and 28 here.
  10. John1122
    Canadian is basically 4+ Plateau, 2.5 Chatty, 5+ everywhere else.
  11. John1122
    The RAP is running and closer to it's wheelhouse, 2 inches in Crossville, 3 over Holston, 4-5 my area, 5-7 down to Knox, 6-8 and still snowing eastern areas. Most of Hamilton around 1 inch but 9/10ths over downtown Chattanooga.
  12. John1122
    Wrong thread.
  13. John1122
    I hope to do better than 1 inch but this being the one time the NAM is correct wouldn't shock me. Earlier this winter one of the events it kept insisting I was getting 3-4 inches until the bitter end but I got about an inch. The Euro/RGEM gave me about an inch from that one. Here we have the opposite totals but the same models disagreeing.
  14. John1122
    For reasons beyond me, the GFS/NAM have a major snow shadow over Southern Campbell County that suggest a downsloping effect off Cross Mountain, but I don't think the precip with this one is moving SW to NE like a typical system, but that's the direction of the drying it's trying to show. They often try that with traditional sliders where the precip is moving up from Alabama.
  15. John1122
    They have me with 1 inch, which is closest to the NAM still. The Euro/RGEM/HRRR/ICON/GFS have 4+ for me.
  16. John1122
    MRX has apparently pushed all in on the NAM judging by their snow maps. (I'm sure it's the NBM, but it weighs the NAM family heavily the closer we get)
  17. John1122
    Currently the model battle looks like the NAMs vs everyone else. The NAMs have dried up considerably. Everyone else maintains so far.
  18. John1122
    The use of so many bad models but not the Euro Op is crazy. Especially since they use the GFS op. I'm not sure that there is actual human involvement in it though. I think it simply blends the models noted on the dashboard and spits out outdated material.
  19. John1122
    My forecast remains less than an inch. All modeling has me at 3-5 inches except the UKIE, the NBM and some junk cams that stink beyond 12 hours.
  20. John1122
    NBM has upped me to 1.5 inches! After looking they used the 12z Euro ens for the 00z NBM.
  21. John1122
    They also added Union and Claiborne to the WSW. I suspect they NBM finally got the 06z Euro Ens data.
  22. John1122
    Euro basically maintains its last 3 runs.
  23. John1122
    The local EMS page is running MRX's 1 inch graphic.
  24. John1122
    If the Euro doesn't just fall flat for us tonight, I'll be fairly confident in a 3 to 5 inch event for me, with higher amounts east of 75, maybe 10+ in SW Va and NC border areas. I hope for a few inches for Nashville and hope Chattanooga can cash in too.
  25. John1122
    It was a bad bad model last storm. It kept showing heavy snow here when actual good models had long showed the warm nose was on the wall. I'm honestly mystified that forecasters lean that heavily into it. It may eventually be right, but not using the hands down best weather model on the planet's Op is just crazy. Instead as you get closer it relies more and more on shaky models. Giving a large weight to the HRRR at 20+ hours is some wild work.
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