John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Chattanooga getting the biggest of it so far.
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Snow shield is 100-150 miles north of 18z so far.
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The GFS looks like it's more connected to the Baja Low. Likely to look more like the Icon if it continues.
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The ICON was still more progressive than the Euro, but managed to dump 10-12 inches. Chattanooga gets nearly an inch of QPF on there with temps from 26 to 29.
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I've seen more for my area, but never for the entire forum footprint.
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Ratio European. Still rolling state wide at this time.
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That Euro was the whole hog. 12+ most everywhere and still snowing.
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GFS vs its ensembles. Normally the ensembles are much drier than the Op.
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The GFS has zero support. Not from it's AI, not from it's ensembles, which are very wet. It's precip shield is almost 200 miles south of the GEFS through 120.
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My wife's phone weather has went for it. She sent me this. It also shows 4-5 inches for the next period.
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The NBM seems to show the most likely and heaviest snow North of 40 into SE Kentucky and SWVa. The GFS and ICON blend, shifted south by 100-150 miles, would produce that image on the left.
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I knew MRX was riding heavy with the GFS as my area has less snow forecast and lower chances than others south of me. No idea which scenario shows me with nothing though, other than this graphic they just released. It's especially funny since WPC literally just released the update that they are essentially ignoring the GFS.
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There's usually only one direction they can go after it. I'll never forgive the Euro after 2017, but this would go a long way towards healing if it was remotely correct.
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I believe the MRX forecast is heavily GFS based.
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Whatever BAM weather says, the opposite is usually good to go.
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I've said for years that we used to get 15-20 inch snows here every decade or so, sometimes a couple of times a decade, and that eventually we'd get another one. I can't imagine this actually comes to pass but dang, it would be one of those old school monsters.
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That Euro run may be the best of the whole winter and for this storm. Everything went about as well as possible today on modeling. The worst runs from each model got better. If this plays out remotely like it's modeled, it will join the ranks of all time storms here. Be it the heavy ice solutions or the heavy snow solutions.
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Not snow fall, but snow depth is 8-12 almost forum wide, with a few 12+ dollops, and some areas "only" in 6-8 depth.
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Hoth on the Empire Strikes Back.
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I think maybe a thread is in order after that suite. There's going to be a storm for all of us, and at minimum some parts of the forum area are going to get frozen.
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Looks like far SE TN and N Alabama is still hanging onto ice by just after midnight Saturday but everyone else in the forum is snow.
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The Canadian had 6 inches of sleet from the Plateau to Memphis.
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It was a ton of ice along the 40 corridor, I remember Crossville was devastated. I got several inches of sleet and snow. (It may have been a different year but I think it was 2010)
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That Canadian run was a super charged version of Jan 29th/30th, I believe 2010.
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With the near zero cold coming, it would potentially be a horrible situation. I feel you on the outages. We are frequent fliers on that here. As a mountain community, we aren't exactly high priority normally either.
