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John1122

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  1. John1122
    Maybe the UKIE. It looks like for snowfall they use individual ensemble members from the GEFS and Euro, the Rap, the HRRR, the SREF, all the CAMs from the NAM nest, and a few others like that. It's amazing really, because to me, not using the OP Euro is mind blowing.
  2. John1122
    Well, for some reason when I select the 00z Jan 30th 2026 NBM 6 hr snow fall at hr 36, it says it's using model runs from Dec 17, 2025 on the NBM dashboard. So I'm not sure which runs of what model they are using but I can't find any model that gives me a half an inch besides the UK.
  3. John1122
    The 0z NBM was pretty much a repeat of the 18z. Gonna see what models they used. It literally has 1/2 inch for me.
  4. John1122
    I'll say this. I have rarely seen the Euro bust badly from 24-36 hours out. Granted, it's normally being dr no at this range. But it's normally excellent with QPF at this distance. Also keep in mind, the Euro is a high resolution model essentially. It's resolution is better than the 12k nam by quite a bit.
  5. John1122
    I don't know why it's so far behind. I'd heard it was one cycle, but they used the Euro from 3 cycles back, and the GEFS from 2 back, plus the SREF/RAP and a few others. I'm not even sure if they used the NAM at all, or the OP Euro or OP GFS.
  6. John1122
    It's because they used many of the 0z Euro ensembles for that 18z NBM and the 0z Euro was very dry compared to all runs today.
  7. John1122
    The snow map MRX released is the 18z NBM. It doesn't have today's 06z, 12z, or 18z Euro in it. It has the 0z data.
  8. John1122
    The Euro looks good. Headed to a basketball game. No school but the tournament rolls on.
  9. John1122
    It's possible, there's a mountain to my SE that rises about 900 feet above me.
  10. John1122
    That looks like an AI version of the GFS ensemble.
  11. John1122
    Now WVLT says my area will get a dusting. So I take back everything positive I said about him.
  12. John1122
    The AI GFS has more precip futher west than the Op GFS, but less precip along the mountain counties than the Op GFS.
  13. John1122
    I believe the HRRR and RAP do, possibly the Rufus and FV3 too.
  14. John1122
    They were made available to emergency management offices.
  15. John1122
    The GFS is slightly down with totals. Basically today the low end models have went up, the high end have came down, and they are meeting in the middle.
  16. John1122
    I will also credit the WVLT met, as he said expect snow showers in the extreme cold that isn't showing up on models. This will be one of those situations where the dgz is probably around 2500 feet and up so snow will fall and it will seem to come from nothing on radar.
  17. John1122
    Whatever model wvlt used showed 4 inches for my area, 5 for Knoxville, and 6-8 east of there.
  18. John1122
    Yes.
  19. John1122
    It's just getting more into a better range for it. Also, keep in mind, most models tend to actually underestimate QPF.
  20. John1122
    Johnson City is 93 percent for over 4 and about 80 percent for oved 6.
  21. John1122
    Newest NWS graphics dramatically increased snow accumulation percentages for my area. I was 22 percent for more than 2 inches last package. I'm now near 70 percent. I had a 10 percent chance of 4 inches or more, now that's 50 percent.
  22. John1122
    The RGEM backed down by about .2 on snowfall across the area. 4.4 in Knox at 12z was 4.2 at 18z.
  23. John1122
    The ICON was a tick better. 2.8 inches at 12z is 3 inches at 18z in Knoxville for instance.
  24. John1122
    It happened a few years ago with a miller A system that went just enough south that my area got around 2-3 inches but just east and south of here was 4-6+ inches.
  25. John1122
    You can check here and see what was used for what forecast for the NBM at a particular hour. The models above were from me selecting 6hr snowfall at hour 42. https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/nbm-dashboard
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