John1122

MRX goes with a WWA north of 40 and basically west of 81. Surprised they sent it up this early and surprised it's only an advisory in my area after model trends from today beefed up totals on the N. Plateau to 3-4 inches in less than 12 hours.

It may end up entirely different because the systems were a bit different, but modeling was very far off on precip totals imby even 36 hours out for the system that just passed. I ended up with nearly 4 inches of rain, and the Euro for instance, was showing 1.5ish as of 12z Thursday.

From an era where Siberian express, Alberta Clipper, etc happened yearly and they meant get the sled ready.

Euro still in high desert mode. Someone will have to blink in the next 24 hours or so.

The UKIE was horrible for most everyone, oddly, my area didn't change much but literally everyone else saw their totals crash into oblivion on it. Especially Kentucky and North Carolina.

The GFS is almost a mirror image of the RGEM.

The RGEM looks good again. At 84 it's still snowing over all of East Tennessee basically. Low end is 1.5-2 inches along the southern border. High end is 6+ along the Kentucky border.

Unfortunately I don't trust it much outside 48 hours no matter what it shows.

It's a positive step at least. It had blanked everyone south of a Kentucky border county. Hopefully this is a trend towards better qpf in Tennessee.

Snow has been moderate at times this evening. The roads are even getting covered as the temps are in the 20s.

The 0z NAM was a massive improvement over any run so far. The 3k looks similar at the end.

The Euro went from .6 or so to .15 QPF in the last 24-36 hours. Just horrible luck and I've no doubt it's going to be correct because whatever is the worst case here, has been correct this winter.

The Euro is a desert. Saw this story before. Basically whatever the worst case scenario is for snow in the area there's a 90 percent chance it happens here. Record breaker in the gulf, no issue. 5 inch snow in East Tennessee, hold your horses.

I hadn't looked out, I have a dusting of snow now with a decent rate falling. 29 degrees.

Steady small flakes falling, 30 degrees.

ICON looks good still. At least not like the NAM at all.

Power finally came back on. RGEM still looks solid.

It's wild how we used to have a Miller A system nearly every year and the last few years we can't buy anything but hand-off systems unless it's too warm to snow. Hopefully we see some better trends in the next 36 hours, instead of worse trends.

Major flooding here and no power since around 3am as the storms moved in. Many roads cut in half, driveways gone. Trees down everywhere.

Snowing here for the past hour. Power has been out since early this morning. Roads are washed away and the NAM pulls that crap. Hopefully it's just being a screwball.

The ICON and GFS went up on totals at 6z, and because we can't have simple, nice things anymore when it comes to winter weather, the Euro went down.

The Euro was a double bad draw for the areas in the Central Valley of East Tennessee and NE. It shoots a big warm nose up the middle of the valley with mid to upper 30s, and it cut QPF for the same area of the warm nose. It was about .15 to .25 less qpf vs 12z. The EPS is still a little wetter than the OP. But it's getting close to the time where the OP will likely handle things better. As I said, hopefully this is not a trend and we get a little more QPF to work with. It's pretty sad that we get 7 inches of rain in 4 days when it's warm, but can't be .5 when it's cold enough to snow.

Euro backed off with QPF, unfortunately. Still a ways to go, but hopefully not a trend. Most modeling backed off a bit tonight for Tennessee and upped totals in NC.

Canadian crept south a bit and now has the entire state over an inch, when 12z blanked some of the southern border areas.

GFS was fairly similar to 18z. Little heavier out west, a little lighter in the eastern valley after what looked like a promising start. Likely doing the hand-off thing Carvers talked about JB saying it does at times.