John1122

Trying to work something up in the gulf along the end of the front from the cutter.

It moved 200 miles SE that run. But still has energy over Nevada diving into Arizona that isn't there on the Canadian/Euro.

The MJO is probably the best we've ever seen it, forecast wise. There are almost no plots that have it on the right side and the left is covered.

Snow total proabilities, the entire forum area has a > 50 percent chance of 1-2 inches of snow per the EPS, with the chances climbing in the northern half of Tennessee. The chance from Clarksville east across all but the southern border counties in Tennessee is greater than 70. Greater than 80 on the Plateau and NE Tn, greater than 90 in SE Ky/SWVa. The entire forum area has a greater than 20 percent chance of 3 to 5 inches of snow. With the chance at > 40 percent for most of the mid-state and points east. > 50 percent on the Plateau and NE Tn. > 60 percent in areas above around 2000 feet it looks like. The entire forum area has a > than 10 percent chance at 6+ inches of snow. >20 percent from the mid-state east. With higher probs in the mountains. The EPS mean total is 2.6 near Memphis, 2.5-3 across Northern Miss/Alabama/Georgia, rising as you go North and East. 3.4 mean for Nashville, 3.3 for Chattanooga, mid 3s for Knox. 4+ Plateau and 6+ mountain tops.

The models aren't nearly as cold as they were prior. The GFS because no snow cover. The Euro because the first storm doesn't cut and drag the PV down. It's still very cold, but 5 to -2 is a lot warmer than those -10 to -20s that some runs have spit out.

The wcs (worst case scenario) is 2017-18. 28-21 34-22 27-10 35-11 38-15 32-13 22-3 19-0 25- -1 31-12 18-4 20- -1 25- -2 31-5 33-23 (dusting of snow that changed to rain at 33 with .2 precip) That was a 15 day stretch of temps here from Dec 26th 2017 to January 9th 2018. If I recall correctly, the I-20 corridor, especially in Louisiana and Texas, got multiple big snow events. Ice was 6 inches thick on creeks here with a dusting of snow to show for it.

The GFS does indeed bury energy in Arizona, which doesn't happen on the 0z Euro or 12z Canadian.

Late run, the GFS is still suppressed. But it's also sending a 1050 high down which is causing the suppression. Those virtually never verify as strong as the GFS shows them.

The Canadian is a solid slider, nothing epic of the 12+ variety here, but very solid for at least the mid-state, the upper deep south over to eastern areas and the Carolinas.

GFS cuts again. It's swinging wildly still and apparently that's just how it's gonna roll this winter. It's solutions are extreme in both directions. 30 degree temp differences run to run, 12+ inches of snow vs bare ground, run to run. The GEFS is holding a pretty steady snow mean. It's gonna be a long next few days until the models actually lock into something. At this point I actually expect a cutter, because they are 100 times more likely than historic snow events. Still, I'll hope for a better solution for us.

There was quite a bit of thunder overnight. The clock is ticking for snow.

Temps in the teens while this is falling in Tennessee.

I don't even know what folks in the deep south would do. That would be a record for many of them. 1993 levels.

Euro with shades of Feb 1996.

Euro about to have a round 2 that wasn't there at 12z.

The Euro remains ugly with a major cutter. It did take a step south and east from 12z when it cut through Iowa.

Another run, another solution on the 00z. It likely can't get better than the last run but we'll see where it goes after thus first storm passes. The cold is still plunging.

That was likely 1977. 78 was very snowy but not terribly cold, at least in January. Albany, NY was something like -4 as was State College. In 1977 both those were -12 to -14. There was a day of near -20 temps in the N Penn, Central NY areas in January 1977.

Cold and mostly dry on 12-28-95. Low 30s, upper singles, lower teens for lows. 1/2 inch of snow on 12-29-95.

For those of you who don't remember/aren't old enough, welcome to 1977. How cold was '77, with last year's 2 week deep freeze the average January temperature here was 32. Lows were in the 20 below range in '77. Jan 77's entire month average imby was 19.5. Like that run, well over 20 inches of snow fell in Jan '77. Snow was on the ground for 6 weeks. Didn't have weather models back then. Just Margie Ison. But this is what that would have been like looking into January.

Not a fan of those 12z runs. Hopefully no kind of trend there. Dry cold is the worst. All the bills and none of the fun.

Snow event during the Arctic invasion on that Euro run.

The Euro has me a -6 at 1pm on Friday the 10th after a morning low of -13. The high appears to be around -5. It's working on 48 straight hours below 0.

The Euro, at range, so take it with salt grains, is absolutely brutal cold. The actual 2m temperatures are around the apparent temps Carver has been concerned with. Those temps are near -25 to -30. I can see why 1985 was an analog.

The GFS fully recovered (for this run) from its 18z Pac ridge displaced way East. Cold and snowy til the end.