John1122

I'm not sure what drove it, as far as the rain snow line. I assume purely a SW to NE line. Tazewell got an inch, but the Newcomb station a few miles from me as the crow flies, but under 1000 feet elevation, just about the lowest spot in Campbell not underwater, also got 5 inches. So it wasn't elevation driven.

Also had 5 inches from that one, then the 850s warmed and we got 1.5 inches of cold rain.

Beautiful slider on the ICON. Nice 3 to 5 inch snowfall for most of our region.

Probably wrong but the ICON drops heavy snow along the border counties with the current weekend event.

The red is pretty much over me. I will note that they seem to be looking at it a bit oddly imo, as they are forecasting the highest elevations as the most likely ice spots when it generally is just the opposite. Cold gets trapped in lower bowls and elevations, especially above 2500 feet or so, are way warmer from the WAA.

The 18z Euro was possibly going to make a run for glory. Tough winter for the models so far. They are are struggling and all over the place.

I got no forecast product but my forecast now says snow changing to freezing rain with a high of 32 Sunday, freezing rain Sunday evening with the temp falling to 28 before beginning to rise later. MRX said the global models were too fast in scouring out the sub-freezing air across the area. That the couldn't quite handle low level cold well enough to see how it sticks in valleys.

It's basically whiteout conditions.

JKL posted a winter storm watch for their border counties. Modeling is showing warning criteria ice here.

It's coming a connective snow burst now. Very heavy snow and windy.

The EURO op is way warmer/wetter than the EPS, which remains in the supression/colder camp.

Then comes the Euro......

Steady snow has returned here. Figured it was over.

Not sure why the GFS shows some light sleet to start the system over the east. It shows it over me with a -5 850 and 26 degree surface temp. Mid and West forum getting a good snow so far though.

Had a surprise dusting this morning from this. Models did their best to show nothing doing with it, MRX even took it out of the forecast yesterday.

North of 40 Knox to Nashville is .2 to .5 ice on the RGEM, with .1 to .2 south of 40.

The warmth is having trouble getting over the western Plateau on there. Temps are in the 29-30 range along the 75 corridor and eastward on the RGEM.

The RGEM is pushing frozen to the southern Tennessee border areas now. It even has some freezing rain into NE Alabama.

The 0z Euro AI gives mby .18 with 850s below freezing and surface temps in the 20s for the start of the this weekend event. Mid-state border counties don't have the 850s but are below freezing at the surface with around .20+ qpf falling. In the East the sub-freezing line is down to 40, around .1 to .2 falls along the 40 corridor with temps below freezing at the surface at hour 66. At 72, around .2 to .3 more precip has falling, 850s are above freezing but from Eastern Scott to North Knox and points E the surface is still below 32 with another .2 to .3 precip falling. For next weekend event, the Euro AI gives just about the same footprint of precip as the 18z GFS Graphicast noted above. Temps are slightly warmer at the surface west of the plateau, 33-35ish, but 850s are well below freezing. Most areas Plateau and East are upper 20s to lower 30s. .3 to .5 qpf falls.

GFS Graphiccast 18z was .3 to .6qpf (most areas .5 or .6) with very good surface and very good 850s for the event next weekend. Surface for most areas in the 20s, and low 20s or upper 10s 850.

The EPS is steadily dropping south with the frozen shield for Sunday/Monday. It just gave an inch or so of snow to the Tn/Ky/Tn/Va border areas.

The Euro didn't quite match the GFS but it took a big step towards it from last night.

The GFS looks beautiful but it would be historic for the Dallas area, and it's hard to ever count on a place setting a record for snowfall in a given season, over the course of 10 days. That said, the all time Dallas record was, I believe, in 1977. They've had 5 double digit seasonal snowfall years since 1898. None over 20 inches.

UKIE joined the south shift/colder camp on the weekend storm. Gives mby an inch or so of front end snow now.

Looks like last year's January storm but included the parts who missed last year in East TN and Western NC.