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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Very heavy rain and more thunder than during the severe event Saturday when I didn't hear thunder here at all.
  2. John1122
    2018 all over again.
  3. John1122
    The GFS goes bananas with western ridging and looks like it's trying to get a -NAO going. Just need that massive western Ridge about five hundred miles west and those heights near Greenland about 500 miles east and north.
  4. John1122
    It's the college of DuPage weather lab page. #19 is the nearly impossible snowpocalypse on there.
  5. John1122
    Really cold Euro OP and it looks like it could've evolved into a reload if it went beyond 240. Aleutian low looked like it might pump an EPO ridge if the progression had continued.
  6. John1122
    The GEFS mean was very beefy, but skewed some by two monster storms, one that would make the bizzard of 1993 a distant memory. Something like 25-30 inches over Northern Alabama and East/MiddleTennessee with 16-20 over west Tennessee. I doubt such a storm is even possible under the best conditions.
  7. John1122
    It's looking like the roller coaster for a while instead of all down hill after the massive uphill we climbed. The GFS finally is popping a mega -EPO and pushing cold our way at 360 after a couple of days of warming after the potential stormy period. The EPO ridge is just slightly off in it's orientation to do great for us. If we can get there, Siberia is blisteringly cold and the air would crash over the pole and down our way. Huge IF as always and late in the run too. Regardless of what happens day 13+, should get cold by day 6 and potentially stormy as the cold air retreats.
  8. John1122
    South and east areas win that run. NE Georgia gets bullseyed with 10+ fantasy inches. South of 40 wins pretty big too, as does east of I-81.
  9. John1122
    GFS fires up a +PNA driven miller A that brings snow or ice to a good bit of the Valley region.
  10. John1122
    The pattern shift is within 6 days on the models now. It may simply shift to seasonal weather, but season is good enough to get snow here in the Jan 15-February 15th timeframe. Ending the death march in the Pacific is priority 1. Unfortunately we are in model madness now. No OPs agree very well with their ENS and none of them agree with each other either, other than that the really bad ditch we've been in, we are about to jump out of.
  11. John1122
    Who knows. It changes every run. Right now we need to get the cold and its probably going to take at least one more cutter to get there. Once the pattern change comes into its own hopefully the potential of the pattern shown on the ensembles bears fruit. That 6z run did end on one heck of a cliffhanger. if it went to 400 we'd either have seen a fantasy foot across the valley or a painful cutter.
  12. John1122
    The Euro Ensemble isn't quite what the GEFS is but its not terribly far off on snowfall output. The Euro OP popped a big East based -NAO. Not the best look for here compared to a west based NAO but better for the western Valley than the Eastern. The midwest does best in east based NAO events. Cutters or Apps runners or Bs are more favored. The Euro has a Rockies ridge that manages to keep the entire SE cold. Normally the Apps and East have AN temps with the east based NAO.
  13. John1122
    GEFS still has some good potential for a lot of us. 1.5 inch mean all the way back to Memphis and 2 in Northern Alabama is pretty nice.
  14. John1122
    GFS keeps the pattern change but doesn't do us any favors regarding winter precip really. Gets cold, warms up and rains, gets cold. I believe Dec 1983 was the ultimate for that. We would get below 0 cold, warm up and rain, then go below 0 again.
  15. John1122
    That area is strangely susceptible to tornadoes. They had one on Halloween night. There's been one tornado in my county since 1935 and it was on the ground here for about 1 mile before crossing into Claiborne Co, but Claiborne gets a ton of tornadoes by comparison.
  16. John1122
    Yep. The tornado history site counted them as Tennessee F5. I believe 3 of the F4 also started outside of Tennessee on there so not sure if they were F4 in the state or not. The other 29 F4 formed in Tennessee.
  17. John1122
    I believe the tornado history site mistakenly counted this one and one from the April 1974 outbreak that crossed from Northern Alabama into Tennessee.
  18. John1122
    Strong wind and heavy rain, but didn't seem to actually have lightning or thunder here.
  19. John1122
    There have been 92 F3, 32 F4 and 3 F5 in Tennessee.
  20. John1122
    Euro builds a block in the Atlantic but a giant Rockies ridge and N Pacific trough. Not great look for us, better for the areas east of the Apps. Far far perfer a better Pacific.
  21. John1122
    68 here today, about as warm as it ever gets in January. Rain is getting close, probably won't make 70.
  22. John1122
    Pretty good snow mean again on the GEFS.
  23. John1122
    Still cold but not as cold on the 00z GFS. Active southern stream too, about all you can hope for in late January.
  24. John1122
    You can get better than those indices but not much better and its really rare. We can definitely work with a neutral NAO with the EPO and PNA working for us.
  25. John1122
    The GFS has thrown us all a bone in the past 24-36 hours. The 18z even bullseyes Chattanooga. Plenty of moisture likely, plenty of cold possible. The eternal struggle in the area is getting them to meet.
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