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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    That would make this winter almost dead on with 1993. It also featured a horrible December and January that finally got a little snowy the last 10 days of February then the March mega storm hit. My actual guess is that it's wildly wrong of course. But the GFS has done the best with temperatures for the past several weeks. I believe I saw that the GFS was only -2.7, the Euro was -4.8, the Euro Ens were -5.5ish, the GEFS was -6.8 and the GGEM was something like -11.
  2. John1122
    Ended up getting several decent bands to rotate through over the last few hours. One was as odd as any situation I've seen during heavier snow. It was 32, a band of very heavy snow rotated in the from the NW and the temperature went up to 34 during the band. I don't remember ever seeing the temperature rise while heavy snow was falling. 29 now, 3/4ths of an inch once again. So modeling that showed my area getting about 1.5 total from the clippers was about right. I-75 got pretty slick from Caryville to Jellico but the salt brigade is out now.
  3. John1122
    Its wild to watch the rain leave Kentucky and change to snow on the Plateau, and leave the Plateau and change to rain in the southern Eastern areas.
  4. John1122
    Looks like incoming for the southern Plateau. May even break into Chattanooga proper.
  5. John1122
    Did just see a photo from some of the snow in eastern Kentucky. About an inch under the heavier stuff there.
  6. John1122
    Looking upstream I don't see anything to be enthusiastic about the rest of the evening for my area. Winter 2019-20 wasn't as bad as 2018-19 for my area and not as bad as 2017-18 either. But those two are basically the gold standard for the worst winters in my life. It's either bound to bounce back at some point or I'm going to have to move to the Tughill Plateau for year or two.
  7. John1122
    MRX said that the main precip would move over the Northern Plateau 11pm to 3am and work through far eastern areas 7am to 10am. Gonna hold out some hope it actually does develop more than a passing shower. The precip type in the grids was way off. Said rain here until 11pm, then rain and snow til midnight, then all snow after midnight. There's been no rain, just not much precip in general.
  8. John1122
    It snows for 5 minutes and then the skies clear. Weird clipper. They usually produce a few hour window of steadier snow. A shame that heavy area in Nashville was rain or maybe bright banding from melting snow flakes.
  9. John1122
    If everything stays this scattered it will be hard to get much accumulation anywhere. Snowing for 10 minutes out of every hour doesn't cut it.
  10. John1122
    No virga this time. As soon as returns popped up over me, its snowing. Temp dropped to 33 degrees.
  11. John1122
    It's odd, or maybe just the radar I'm looking at, but the precip North of me in Kentucky looks to be moving due East and the precip West of me is moving SSE.
  12. John1122
    I assume the heavy area developing in western Tennessee is what has been showing up dropping 3 or 4 inches along the southern Plateau. Looks like it may be pointed that way. I figure its gonna be another hour or so before it starts here.
  13. John1122
    I'm already ready for summer and spring to be over. Tennessee isn't making the NCAAs and I'm already tired of humid, 88-95 degrees and rain. At least in fall when it's still 88-95 degrees its dry.
  14. John1122
    Looks like round 2 is rain in western and middle valley areas. Looks like temps are close to 50 in Nashville. seems to be mid 30s to 40ish over on this side of the state. 35.6 imby with mostly clear skies.
  15. John1122
    Another 4 inch week of rain would probably out us back into areal flooding. The ground is like a full sponge right now. I had a flat earlier and had the worst time changing it. Due to the nature of where I live there are sections of paved road and sections of gravel. My flat happened in gravel. It was like soup, my jack kept sinking into the ground. Soil is soaked at every level.
  16. John1122
    Surprised MRX said wave two was stronger. OHX earlier said just the opposite, that it was weaker. It coming after dark will greatly aid in stickage.
  17. John1122
    The tail end of wave one was convective here with very heavy rates and wind. Managed about 1/3rd inch at its peak but the sun came out right after.
  18. John1122
    Saw photos from the southern Plateau, big flakes and white ground pretty quickly.
  19. John1122
    Looks like decent returns in middle Tennessee, just not sure of the ground truth to them right now. They should be in Crossville next update. They are moving almost due East so may he good if they don't get downsloped off the Plateau and temps cooperate in the central valley.
  20. John1122
    MRX actually added my area to the WWA but for elevations higher than me. Holding at 31 degrees up from 25 as the atmosphere tries to saturate. The ground is nicely frozen after being sub freezing for the last 12 hours. Just need to see the moisture actually reach the surface.
  21. John1122
    Having some virga here. Maybe a flurry or two.
  22. John1122
    Looks like the best shot of anything sticking lower that 1500ft will be tonight after dark with the second wave.
  23. John1122
    One difference from tonight into tomorrow vs yesterday, we had been above freezing and had to work our way below freezing on a warmer ground. No worries about that tonight.
  24. John1122
    Speaking earlier about location during upslope, LeConte is a few miles from Newfound Gap but picked up 7 inches of snow into this morning. Newfound Gap only got an inch.
  25. John1122
    On the 00z HRRR 700-500mb Lapse rates look to be -7 to -8 in the area into tomorrow. Not absolutely unstable like -10 or more but enough to be considered conditionally unstable. HRRR is .5 to 2 inches over a good part of the Eastern Rim and other areas eastward. The 3+ lollipop shows up in western Cumberland County. The mountains go for 4-8 inches.
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