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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    GEFS is more smoothed and better for most areas vs the OP. I actually do better on the OP but this looks more reasonable overall and I'd prefer this to be closer to reality.
  2. John1122
    Ends up here after another spoke of energy gives a bit more accumulation to some of the area. Can't imagine there will be strips of heavy accumulations and random blank spots in the actual event but who knows.
  3. John1122
    It's showing the odd fingers of accumulation that the ensembles have been showing, this run. Not really sure how that would happen to be honest.
  4. John1122
    The 06z GFS is super progressive so far. Has snow breaking out in the northern mid-state by 1am Christmas eve morning. Hammering the I-75 corridor by 7am.
  5. John1122
    Strangely, and in defiance of literally every single model run for the past 4 days across every single model and ensemble suite, it actually has my snow chances as lower than Knoxville's and I dropped from 60 percent to 40 percent for Christmas Eve night. No clue on what to make of that one.
  6. John1122
    MRX playing it cautious. Basically the standard "well, it's probably going to snow in the mountains." disco. Can't really blame them though they did put out a giant graphic yesterday talking about a wintry Christmas.
  7. John1122
    Ratio'd Euro.
  8. John1122
    The ratio'd euro is much more impressive. Widespread 6+ in the East. 8-10 N plateau. 2-4 mid state.
  9. John1122
    The model dosey do. The GFS steps up, the Euro steps back, then they reverse.
  10. John1122
    The runs beyond 200 hrs are prone to wild swings even at 500mb. A couple of weeks ago they were throwing out +20 anomalies for this time frame. The SE ridge could happen but who knows. I think Holston has found at times if convection flares even briefly in MJO regions that are warm, the next GFS run goes bad at 500mb the next run or two.
  11. John1122
    Apparently Pruitt was maybe paying players and recruits. I have no idea how he could be cheating like Alabama but producing that result on the field. My main hope is that it allows him to be fired with cause and saves UT 12 million in buyout money. We aren't going to be any worse on the field regardless of the outcome.
  12. John1122
    Tennessee football sends it's condolences as a fellow loser.
  13. John1122
    Fortunately the Euro has been pretty bad at this range to date in December. Usually in the opposite direction with it showing big events while the GFS didn't.
  14. John1122
    Not the GFS but this is way better than it's 12z clown map.
  15. John1122
    Canadian went a bit weird that run. Reminded me of the solution models were throwing out a few times in the early December storm. Much slower than the GFS and it snows basically all day Christmas day.
  16. John1122
    It often seems to be around but Eric Webb I believe swears it doesn't prevent southern snow storms at all.
  17. John1122
    There's been some super negative AO looks on the ensembles. Several guys like Ventrice have been talking about early January looking icy. Glad you know the East Asian stuff.
  18. John1122
    It will really depend on snow cover but I can't imagine highs will be above freezing even without it just based on what's being shown on models.
  19. John1122
    The cold that follows is one of the all time cold Christmas days. Wide spread single digits Christmas morning in the snow areas. Highs in the 10s and lower 20s, by 7pm Christmas evening already widespread temps in the 5 to 10 degree range. Unless SW flow aloft develops overnight into the 26ths, probably going to show up with some sub zero temps.
  20. John1122
    The GFS is sticking to it's guns on the change over thumper. Lost the idea of the clipper that follows unfortunately. Still a big run for most of the valley forum. I wish there was a way for the far western areas to be involved, and who knows, maybe there still will be. Long ways to go with this one, and we've seen so many great runs all the way up until nowcast time that folded.
  21. John1122
    EPS mean, while not on par with the GFS by any means, would still see a snowy Christmas eve. There are several big dogs and several complete misses on it, as one can expect from a 50 member run 5-6 days out from an event.
  22. John1122
    06z GFS looks good for all but the West valley with two rounds of snow. This is where we end up with the Christmas eve thumping plus the Christmas eve night clipper.
  23. John1122
    GEFS had some real block busters. The highest mean of the young winter season that I've seen so far.
  24. John1122
    Canadian was a mixed bag, has .10 to .15 ice accumulation over the mid-state and with a couple of inches of snow in the Eastern half of the valley. The ice in NE valley areas actually comes before the mid state ice.
  25. John1122
    GFS says Merry Christmas Mid-Valley.
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