John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Honestly, ice events are so rare I'm not sure. I will say this, I've found that nearly across all modeling that ice is further east/south than it gets modeled most of the time. That leading edge of arctic air is one of the hardest things for a model to nail down and they tend to underestimate it.
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0z GFS.
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00z hi res.
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51 imby. 63 10 miles south of me.
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TV meteorologists are so bad at weather. The guy on channel 8 implied being higher in elevation makes freezing rain more likely when just the opposite is usually true. Seen plenty of ice here when it was 45 degrees above 2500ft.
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That's where there's a hazardous weather outlook. That includes rain, wind, heat, cold etc. Just a catchall.
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The GFS is insane. It just never stops snowing and icing. There's also non accounted for sleet in here too. Epic sleet in some areas.
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West Tennessee has 12-16 inches of snow plus ice, sleet and Arctic air next week. Basically a repeat of February 2015 that happened in the East.
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The V16 takes the low road and scoots the low off the coast of South Carolina, which means more winter state wide with a good thump of snow west of the Plateau.
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It won't just be the storm either. It will be the cold before, during and after.
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Probably the most unrealistic portion of that GFS run is extremely frigid air to the N and W of the low that somehow doesn't get pulled into our area when the low is E and NE of us.
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Low went to Tri Cities and then transferred or redeveloped south around Asheville. Trend east is better. Wonky Tri to Asheville development unlikely imo.
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Still trying to cut on the GFS but a little further east. Probably 3 inches of sleet in Nashville on this run.
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Not sure where it will lead but the GFS is colder to the spine of the Apps this run. 9 degrees colder in Knoxville. Monster winter storm in the western areas still locked in place.
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I think you guys may have a week of winter weather you talking about for years after this.
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18z GFS
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Middle Tennessee gradient.
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I feel like you're going to have about a week long show. I hope you're stocked up and have back up power and are able to enjoy winter's wrath.
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My point forecast says freezing rain Thursday night after the WWA ends. Low of 30. Seems odd.
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It was 59 in Nashville hours before the 1951 ice storm hit. Often the stronger the Arctic push the warm it gets out front.
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This entire winter we've had one storm that just went from a great track to a cutter and it pulled 400 mile west shifts on all models for 3 consecutive runs. We've had several that tried to come north that ended up further south and east.
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It went from Detroit to Atlanta in one run. I may rename the Euro the Bandit it got to Atlanta so fast.
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Last night at 0z the storm cut to Ohio.
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The shifts south and east are determined by blocking over the Great Lakes vs the NAO region. Last night there was a 1040ish high over Minnesota and another in Pennsylvania. The one over Minnesota literally disappeared in 6 hours on the EURO and the storm cut. That run it kept the storm suppressed then got out ahead of it and allowed it to gain latitude.
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The 12z GFS was 200 miles east of 6z. The Euro shift south from 0z was 700 miles.
