
John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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January 7 - 8 ULL obs and nowcast
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
0 precipitation at all here so far. 35 dp 29. -
It certainly can't hurt. It's 35 here currently, even the valley areas are in the upper 30s. Oak Ridge is 39 though they were predicted to hit 47 today.
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Not sure if it will make a big difference, but there's been a massive bust on high temps today. Most forecasts had the area in the mid to upper 40s. It's around 10 degrees cooler.
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Poor MRX, the models still can't agree, say downsloping could be an issue for eastern areas, the plateau and SWVA cold enough for snow but not all models give precip, the central valley borderline for snow or rain. This is one of the most complicated forecasts you can have. I don't envy any position they take regarding winter products.
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I expect a WWA at least, models are showing WSW level snow falling.
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No worries at all my friend. That was a rain to snow event with 3-5 inches around the area at least along the border counties. I worked in West Knoxville at the time. Heavy rain there transitioned to rain/snow mix around Clinton exit, all snow around Lake City exit and a heavy paste job from just south of Caryville and points north here. Looks like Oneida, Tazewell, and TRI all had similar amounts. Knoxville only had a trace of snow at TYS but about ,70 rain.
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Made it down to 23 this morning. Cloudy and 33 as noon arrives.
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Are you sure it's 2005? I was in the 50s that day, as was Tazewell and Oneida. Even LeConte was 48.
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The 06z NAM even gets Memphis.
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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
John1122 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Well it was down towards the Yucatan a few runs ago, so definitely north! With the blocking over the top there's generally a limit to how far north it's going to make it though. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
John1122 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
This would be one of the best winter periods in years on the forum were it to verify. Unless you were in that small screw zone too far east for one wave and too far west for the other. To have this on the Euro a few years ago I'd have been super confident. Super wary instead! -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
John1122 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Right now the EURO is the furthest north and west, which is one of it's biases. GFS is way East which is one of its biases. The Canadian was middle ground and was basically great for Mississippi and most of Tennessee. Especially along and S of 40. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
John1122 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
108-114 snow accumulation. 114-120 120-126 -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
John1122 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Big run of the Euro on the 2nd wave for Western areas. Was much better in general than 12z. Still has the same issues as 12z more east but overall a huge winter storm for parts of the forum. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
John1122 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Crushing N Miss and West Tennessee at 114. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
John1122 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Wave 2 looking good early for Arkansas, Mississippi and SWTN. -
Great Euro run.
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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
John1122 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Glad you're here. I hope you guys get nailed like the models are showing. The Canadian builds a glacier in Mississippi. -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
John1122 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Big bounce back on the 0z Canadian for wave 2. 24 hr totals d6ish -
January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
John1122 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
The GFS is still suppressing wave two but it's much further north than earlier runs. Now it has a wave 3 similar to Christmas with cold catching moisture and snow falling for the next 24 hours or so behind an arctic front. -
Canadian. Probably been the most consistent model but doesn't necessarily mean it's right by any means.
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Slightly south and east vs yesterday. But I think it is just model bounce due to the nature of the system being much more unpredictable than a normal system.
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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
John1122 replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Next 5 days on the gfsv16 -
GFSv16
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The GFS is going to score an all time win or have a monster bust. It's going down with a snowless ship. Yet it's upgrade is all in on a monster storm. The Canadian is in the middle and consistent.