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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Regarding the SSW, it's likely fueling the continued -NAO, which is keeping the SE ridge just enough at bay to keep us from having 0 chance at anything but 60s and cutters.
  2. John1122
    Good write up by MRX this morning about the potential for snow Friday night into Saturday morning and how models are very possibly underdoing the precip that falls as snow. MRX also mentioned there will be no temp issues and all areas will see frozen that see precip.
  3. John1122
    Later in the run the GFS has a huge snow event and near 0 cold. But it's also likely to change significantly by 06z too.
  4. John1122
    The OP GFS after day 7 is not worth getting excited over or upset about. Keep in mind 6 hours ago it tossed the arctic into our backyard at the same time frame as it's showing a poor pattern now.
  5. John1122
    The 0z ICON has a perfect southern slider that is really nice for Western areas especially but gets the whole state basically. The GFS has multiple 1-2+ inch events over the next week or so and it really hammers elevated areas in the East with big time upslope.
  6. John1122
    I wouldn't be surprised to have some AN out there but it looks to be transitional. Those forecasts usually center on D11.
  7. John1122
    Snow moving back in now. Nickels flying.
  8. John1122
    I'm hoping with dark coming on they can get something to stick if they haven't already.
  9. John1122
    That band north of Nashville has had some pretty good reflectivity this afternoon. I hope some of our posters in that area at least got something nice to look at.
  10. John1122
    Some pretty good analogs at 500mb showing up on the EPS today. It's forecasting a -EPO in the offing too. We have a -PNA but when the EPO is right that isn't a huge deal, it just means the trough is likely oriented NW to SE or something close to that. In 2014 we had a big Valentines day snow event with a -PNA of about 1.1. In the long range at 500 the EPS has a very similar look to Jan 9th-11th 2011. There was a very snowy period for about 10 days with a nice overrunning event right there around the 10th. It snowed multiple days in a row here during that time frame and we had below 0 cold here on the Plateau with highs in the upper 10s and lower 20s. Even Knoxville had nearly 5 inches of snow on the 10th with only .3ish qpf. That also had a -PNA but a nice -EPO/-NAO combination.
  11. John1122
    Anyone in the mid-state seeking anything from the returns out there?
  12. John1122
    It stopped for a while but steady light snow has moved back into the area. Temp is holding steady at 32.8. The sun will set for me in about an hour and 20 minutes. But likely won't see any additional accums unless the rates really pick up. I do not however, expect to switch to rain at any point at this point.
  13. John1122
    I don't know we are seeing the end or if some of the stuff in Alabama and West Tennessee will make it here this evening. Seeing people in Alabama who have 3 inches and are getting some of their heaviest rates of the event right now.
  14. John1122
    Same to you and all the guys and ladies who post here. These surprise events are always the best. Even though modeling was ticking up last night, it was just hard to believe it was going to work out. Schools here stayed open because forecasters kept saying it was going to switch to rain all morning. It's not a popular decision and back roads here are a mess.
  15. John1122
    Still steady snow here but temp is 32.8. Not quite snowing hard enough to outpace the compacting of snow.
  16. John1122
    From about an hour ago. Steady snow since has given me about another 1/4th inch.
  17. John1122
    Had trouble posting this morning for some reason. 1.75 inches of snow and steady snow falling. 32 degrees. Models never correctly model how far north gulf storms will send precip.
  18. John1122
    It's been bad for that this year. It had the storm hitting Miss/Lousiana right now down toward the Yucatan at one point. It had the big west Texas/Oklahoma storm going East of the Apps for a while.
  19. John1122
    Just reading the news where Spain got a giant blizzard and here we are seeing snow way down deep in the South for the second time in the last few years. Wild how places that rarely see snow seem to get it more than places in Tennessee that should see snow every year. We are also overdue for a major snowstorm. A 15-20 inch type event. They used to happen every few years in the Valley region somewhere but haven't really been a thing in a long time now outside of elevation.
  20. John1122
    GFS FV16 also drops 1-2+ from the southern Plateau to SEKY. The regular GFS is close to it as well.
  21. John1122
    I hate that this is the one system that ends up further east than modeled this year. I was hoping AMZ and our other posters out that way scored. Maybe some N.Ala or Southern Middle folks can get something going. Probably the NAM being the NAM but the 3k drops 3-4 inches above Holston in Frozenhead and over Cross Mtn.
  22. John1122
    Another day with snow on the ground. Certainly blowing past the last few winters in that regard.
  23. John1122
    MEG says 1.5 inches or more possible across their north Central and NE Miss counties. Possibly more if it stays cooler Monday. Says most of the area will see light to moderate snow falling for Monday morning commute. Hope it over performs for all you guys.
  24. John1122
    It's been cloudy for days now. The same pattern that just dumped moisture all of 2020 here. Thick clouds and 30 right now with the occasional flurry.
  25. John1122
    Same here. Had tiny flakes all day yesterday. These are actually dime sized with a penny or two mixed in. Clouds stayed thick overnight. Only down to 28 after what had looked like 21 or so would happen.
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