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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    06z GFS looks a little like 0z GFSV16, with NW Tennessee getting in the game and an overall south shift. The 06 GFSV16 looks really good north of 40 across the area. Plateau and west.
  2. John1122
    It's similar to runs of the GFSV16 from earlier.
  3. John1122
    A low track further south with better HP overhead. The models have slowly been shifting south with it. They were cutting it straight to a block then transferring it at one point. That's what got NC in the big snow window. Still transferring but the low isn't transferring from WVA now.
  4. John1122
    Canadian shifted the blues (1+ inch) about two counties south. Light snow nearly statewide on it. Decent event for southern KY.
  5. John1122
    Head to salt mountain with this, but the GFSV16 gets the west valley in the game. I believe this will be the main GFS in February.
  6. John1122
    06z GFS was better for Kentucky. Our SE Ky guys would have a nice event if it were to verify. Northern Plateau totals were up a bit too. The V16 wasn't as big a run as 12z but it wasn't bad. Far eastern areas get a good shot on both.
  7. John1122
    GFSv16 was a bit more south and colder.
  8. John1122
    The 0z runs are enough to be interesting. Kentucky gets slammed by the GGEM.
  9. John1122
    0z GFS was a little further west with the snow shield in about 5-6 days. Webb keeps comparing it to the March 1927 event. That one saw several inches as far back as Nashville with 8-12+ inches across the eastern valley. A foot in Chattanooga for instance.
  10. John1122
    I'd love to tap some legitimate cold with the -NAO around. Hopefully we can get a 2-3 week period with both. Even if it was February 10-March 7th that is great climo for snow here if we can get the Pacific on board. In 2015 we managed to basically get the entire valley involved during the last 12 days of February and first few days of March. I believe the March event was a West Tennessee blizzard.
  11. John1122
    Now very heavy sleet mixed with snow. I expect to hit rain before too long. Temp is up to 33.
  12. John1122
    Not sure how long it will last. But it's snowing.
  13. John1122
    Currently at 31 with blues popping up on the radar to the west of me. Hopefully I can pull off a little bit of front end snow.
  14. John1122
    I seem to recall seeing models trying to cut storms straight towards big highs in the past like the Euro does around 192-198. I don't think it ever has actually worked that way when it came verification time. With a -NAO and a HP north of it I just don't see the storm running up through from the Gulf to Eastern Kentucky.
  15. John1122
    The Plateau has been a harsh mistress for them for at least 135 years it seems!
  16. John1122
    16 of the top 28 snow events in Nashville history occurred later than today's day, into February and March. Several happened in November/December as well. Here are some blockbusters. This one here had those 15 inches in Nashville fall in 13 hours! The Great Blizzard of 1951 was also the end of January into the 1st of February. February for the mid state has the all time single day snow fall record for Jamestown, Carthage, Byrdstown, Franklin, Monterrey, Gainsboro, Nashville, Orlinda, Smithville and Sparta among others. February also has the all time record low for a multitude of cities in the midstate with temps rivaling January of 1985. While none of those things may happen in February this year, any point in February is too early to give up hope on winter anywhere in the state.
  17. John1122
    Thats actually probably a recent thing then. Nashville's snowfall records for individual storms and snowiest months are virtually all set after January but they were also set before the 1980s for the most part. I did find that Nashville and Knoxville saw the largest drop in snowfall average in the entire country for the 1981-2010 time frame. Nashville dropped 60 percent and Knoxville 52 percent. Not sure if that's more urbanization or what. I do know that for Knoxville it's due in part to missing data. Several large snow events in Knoxville in the 90s are missing from data and monthly snowfall is recorded at way less than actually fell.
  18. John1122
    Actually February is usually the snowiest month in Tennessee. So all hope isn't lost yet at least.
  19. John1122
    Notice any difference in the GFS from yesterday at 06z vs today for the 29th? Yesterday
  20. John1122
    Things look seasonal over the next few days with some frozen precip possible but nothing much of significance. We will then be warm for a few days with a big attempted cutter per the Euro. At D10 the Pacific is getting blocky. The NAO is strong and cold is bulldozing eastward. It's reached Memphis by 240.
  21. John1122
    The EPS has decided ultra warmth maybe isn't it's thing. Back to western ridge and Eastern trough. Model madness abounds. Hope the warmth was another headfake like the Christmas warmth was.
  22. John1122
    Possibly moving out of winter for a while but a good coaching search may pull me through.
  23. John1122
    Good looking band on radar in my area but so far they are only producing light snow showers. Temp is down to 34.
  24. John1122
    I never get shut out, but have had 2 of the worst years in about 90 years of records here in the last 3 winters too. I'm excited because I have a shot at getting to my average this year. I really hope you guys can get a nice event. I always look back at the frequency of heavy snow events over the entire forum and they aren't uncommon in Middle Tennessee or East Tennessee, they are less common in West but still used to happen. It's been a long while since there was a widespread 12+ inch event in the eastern areas and even though Northern Middle had one in 2016, the rest of the midstate hasn't seen one in a long time either. My last 12+ single event was 2010. My last 15+ was 1998. Both those types of events used to happen far more frequently. I'm not sure why they've stopped. We still get plenty of juice and we've still been downright frigid in the 2010-2020 timeframe. You'd think we'd have lucked into one.
  25. John1122
    Light snow shower underway right now. 37 degrees, temp fell from 41 to 37 in just a few minutes.
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