John1122

Looks like Crossville is already reporting light snow and 32. 34 and waiting here.

I just don't know what the computer that generates them sees to be honest. Even computer models don't show waffling precip types like that during events.

There have been several that went over 2 feet LeConte in the last 15-20 years. I want to say a few went over 3 feet. I believe Sandy had some snow from the system itself involved. I once got connected to a feeder band off Michigan and it snowed 6 inches in 4 hours here. It was NNW flow instead of NW flow though. I believe Christmas eve to the 26th of 2010 was a long duration NWFS situation where around 2 feet fell at LeConte and lower elevations got 6-12.

It will be a matter of getting parked under a good snow shower. I wouldn't be surprised to see some lower valley areas get a bonus like that and break an inch.

Point forecasts in these situations always crack me up. It's like "rain before 1 am, then rain and snow between 2 and 3 am, then snow between 4 and 5 am, then rain between 7-8 am, then snow between 9-11 am."

That MRX map is the most bullish one they've put out for me all year and I've had two 2-3 inch events and a 5 inch event.

At one point overnight the roads across the area were all icy/slick per 911 office. But after it got above freezing everything was back to normal around 5am. We aren't close to the predicted high today as of now. It was supposed to be around 50. Currently 41.

Warmed up to 34 and have had some heavy rain, but in the last 15 minutes it's switched back to sleet. Very rare to see that happens once the rain starts.

Mixed with sleet now. It's rattling off my windows.

Big quarter +flakes starting to mix in with the nickels and dimes. Looks like down in Lafollette its coming down too.

Some heavier returns just about a mile to my west.

MRX mentions NNW flow. I do well with that and Walnut and Black Mountain here will generate a band that reaches north Knox at times in NNW flow.

32 and snow currently. Future radar has it lasting another 2 hours without changing over here but I'll be stunned if that happens.

Looks like the front edge of the precip is snow as it's reaching Fentress County. Still at 32 here.

I am expecting it to warm overnight but the predicted high of 41 today is actually 32 so far.

Around 1/2 inch here. It snowed very hard with half dollars for a while. The last two mornings in the 10s meant the roads got covered immediately.

Looks like snow in Crossville area and possibly soon here. I'm working on my mountain property this afternoon and just got into service and saw the radar.

It was 16 this morning and is still below freezing here. 2 days in a row in the teens, then cold rain falling should have ground Temps fairly set for this.

Basically the entire 06z suite is on board with the 0z Euro. MRX remains typically bearish outside the mountains, where they will likely issue a WSW by tomorrow, as they are bullish there. They mention 1200 feet as the likely snow line but also say most of the valley will see some snow in the air. To date this year I've had a lot of over performers imby with one bust, that being a couple days ago with the dusting.

Dr. No is actually more Dr. Yes than most for the snow potential Sunday night and into early week.

I will say this, the never ending NAO has prevented torch fest but the meh at best Pacific has prevented any Arctic invasion. We got a favorable Pacific briefly around Christmas and it got cold for all and snowy for a lot of us. I also have noticed as I am sure we all have, the models keep pushing for the SE ridge to return and have almost all winter in the long range but when it comes time, it never quite materializes. But because the Pac isn't favorable we have too much warm air to quite stay frozen with most systems. The best case scenario for us is a suppressed track driven by a cooperative NAO/AO/Pacific and we get over running slider events that snow from Arkansas to North Carolina. Other ways are that massive cold bulge coming east enough to keep us on the cold side while systems form on it because of the SE ridge. It's a fine line but when you get that Arctic air lucking nearby you have to start watching for ice events, especially from the Plateau and westward. SE ridge + frigid Midwest is a setup where it's raining and 50 in the Tri-Cities and 28 and freezing rain in Memphis at times. You just never know where the front will stall, but stalling against the Apps is somewhat common in that scenario.

Kept waiting on someone else to start a February thread but it didn't quite come to fruition. Hopefully the frigid possibility is not a head fake and we get some real valley wide storm threats to go along with it.

Long range GFS is just absolutely epic cold.

Not showing up on radar at all, but have steady nickels falling right now. NW flow stuff I assume, since it often isn't picked up by radar. 30 degrees.

Much to my surprise, its snowing very hard and its very windy. Actually hard to see a couple of times driving up the mountain. Almost like a snow squall.