
John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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I'm all for Jax or someone starting a new thread for 2022 since this one is a few years old now. Thanks to you guys who are good at severe, I'm not a severe expert by any means and I always read your stuff when it's looking likely.
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LaNina, if I recall correctly, usually would see more clippers and northern stream energy that gives us snow chances. The SOI stuff makes sense. The West is seeing Nino conditions in California. All I saw all fall was the drought was going to accelerate in So Cal due to the Nina. It's being eaten away instead. Massive snow pack is building and the Lower elevations are getting frequent rain. The upper Midwest definitely isn't seeing Nina conditions either. Nor are the mountain west states. Areas from Montana to Wisconsin that would normally be well BN in a Nina are +4 to +6 this December. So far December temps in the area are similar to December 1984/December 2015. Both saw the patten flip in January and ended up being pretty decent to legendary winters. Weather patterns don't often lock in for 3 months in a row in winter with no shake ups at all. Hopefully we can get the Pacific a bit more favorable as models are suggesting.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Merry Christmas everyone. We may be the smallest weather forum but we have some of the best posters around. I appreciate you all and via this forum, communicate with many of you more than some of my family! Some of you guys post less frequently and some seem to have disappeared. I truly hope you're all just taking a break from the weather and are healthy and happy with life. I look forward to actually getting some cold and a winter storm threat, that's when this place really springs to life. I think we will see that arrive in January and February. -
The La Nina isn't yet behaving quite like a typical La Nina. Southern California should be BN for precip during La Nina. The Los Angeles area after today already has their normal or even above normal monthly rainfall and they are expected to get rain for 4 more days through New Years Eve. The HP that typically is in the N. Pac during a Nina is further NW than normal and that's allowing the downstream trough to be below Southen California instead of further inland. I've seen some bad winter as a snow lover but never in my life have I seen a winter that didn't have at least a few weeks of winter weather sprinkled into it.
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Neutral.
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To find hope, go back to 2015/16. December was very warm, unendingly so it seemed. We had two severe weather threads in December. Our first winter storm threat wasn't until mid-January and it fizzled at the last minute. Then winter unleashed over the next 30 or so days.
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Unfortunately that's 2020, and that February was quite bleak.
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Turned into a monster winter storm for the deep south. Looks 2018ish.
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GFS is cooking something up inside d10 now. This trough is heading in at D9 and west coast ridging is popping. That low is spreading winter weather across Texas.
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0z EPS wasn't bad. Cold arrives as we approach hr 300, potential overrunning set up unfolding around then. Most of the country outside Florida was BN as deep cold from the west pressed towards us. Hopefully it continues to progress in time. There also seems to be some debate on where the MJO has been. The CPC has had it in 7 for a while now. The Australians have had it in 6 and it seems to have barely crossed into 7 the last couple of days. The weather is definitely more reflective of 6.
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We've had two really warm overall days. I've still managed 25 or below for the low 11 days this month with one more day at 29. Had two days with 50 for the low and another with 48. Two days of +18 and one +16. Overall +5 for the month. December 1984 was +9. It's maybe the warmest December of my lifetime here that I recall.
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Around here not being too cold and not snowing is seasonal. Those days are generally out of the ordinary here. Especially at lower elevations where most people live. Down here we have to hope for the exceptions to go our way. It's been cloudy and 40s/20s today and yesterday was a bit cooler than today. Those are seasonal for here.
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Not had time to look, but a ridge SE of the Aleutians, closer to the Gulf of Alaska is Nina climo vs one hanging out in the Central and Western Aleutians.
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December 1984 (there have been multiple happenings this late fall and early winter that have lined up with 1984/85) was as unrelenting a torch as we've seen in December. It continued into early January too. New Years Day came in around 70 degrees across the area. There were 15 days of +15 or more days between December 10th and early January with only 1 day BN in a 3+ week stretch. When the pattern flipped, it flipped hard and we know what happened after. As I said a few weeks go, if the cold is still weeks away by mid January I'll feel less good, but still note we've seen severe cold and winter weather outbreaks arrive in February.
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One positive, BAMWx is almost universally incorrect in long range forecasting. I'll be stunned if it doesn't get cold and snow at some point. My worst winter ever is around 5 inches of snow. The first day of winter is waaaaaaaaaaaay too early to cancel winter.
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Webber was posting yesterday that to look for any movement in the Aleutian Ridge to see winter unleashed. He said it didn't even matter which direction it moved, as long as it did it would change the longwave pattern and send cold East.
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These are the MJO phase posts I've been talking about. I misremembered about phase 8, it's the coldest at low amplitude per GAWX. 7 isn't bad though. According to Larry(GAWX) over a 40 year period in January in Atlanta while he's been a weather observer. He said 7-8 low amp are his favorite for winter temps in the Southeast but that 1-2 were also good. The graphic is Webber's NC snow event chart by phase/ENSO. The drivers can be much different for the other side of the Apps, but cold often arrives here before there. Occasionally they can get CAD when we have cold rain.
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Modeling run to run beyond D8 is rarely stable, I'm surprised it's not been more volatile to be honest. Small things have big consequences down the road that far so it's not shocking at all to see them moving around a lot. Yes, phase 7 low amp was -4 in Atlanta. 8-2 were something like -1 or -2. In low amp, around the COD, even 6 was BN.
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If you look at the GAWX post, it's all about the amplitude. Lower in Phase 7 was the coldest in January of all MJO phases for Atlanta. They normally get cold via the same way we do except for very extreme CAD.
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As I expected a week ago, the GFS was trying to bring the pattern change too quickly and the Euro, with basically no pattern change at all on the Weeklies was delaying too much. As of now, the extended ensembles on all modeling has a potent, well placed NAO, a good Pacific set up, and very cold air on tap for our side of the world. Lots of BN heights across the lower 48 with reds where we want them. As Carvers mentioned, we don't often have that many things going correctly. Some of the times we had a cooperative Atlantic, and Pacific in a La Nina was 1995-96, and 1984-1985. We are definitely having a torchy December ala 1984.
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Webb noted the EPS is struggling with the -NAO still. It's very hard to have that and a SE Ridge. The best thing about right now, is that winter hasn't really started for any of us yet. We can get snow in December but it's much less common than the months to come. We are still a solid month away from the beginning of prime snow/cold climatology for the area. If we are at January 10th, have received nothing and still hoping for a SSW or some kind of blocking to actually happen we might be in trouble, but even then we've had later winters that turned severe. I believe the aforementioned 2015 had a cold shot around New Years then warmed for a long stretch before mid February brought about 2 weeks of the most brutal winter conditions many of us had experienced since the mid 1990s.
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Curious to see if the weeklies have changed. Saw some tweets earlier that they are performing horribly so far this fall and early winter, having completely missed several troughs/cold shots. Carvers has noted they struggle as the seasons change. Will have to see if they stabilize at some point and start actually coming close.
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GFS was awesome that run. The Rex Block Jax mentioned is there over Alaska. Banter really, but heading into Christmas eve.
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The CFS is crazy cold for January. We'd be rocking some 1970s winter if it was right.
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Leaves have been gone here a couple of weeks but the rain was nice to get them good and soaked again. After being massively above normal through July, we finally had some BN rainfall months lately. Nothing severe here but some of the loudest thunder in a while. Must have had a really close cloud to ground strike.
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