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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The Canadian wound the energy up over west Tennessee instead of East/Middle Tennessee and that was the response.
  2. John1122
  3. John1122
    The Canadian is single digits to low 10s while snowing.
  4. John1122
    Canadian is a big run from Cookeville and points east it looks like. It was really good with this last storm and the first turd in the punch bowl showing massive warm noses. Hopefully it's right here.
  5. John1122
    GFS took a big step west. Those in the far eastern areas would cash in with that run.
  6. John1122
    Man, that's an unfortunate eastward shift from weather next.
  7. John1122
    Euro AI was pretty steady and right about the same as 12z. Euro OP was worse for anywhere in Tennessee than 12z.
  8. John1122
    The Weather Next precip shield has expanded west 3 runs in a row.
  9. John1122
    I hope so, we were supposed to have cleared out already but it's not yet.
  10. John1122
    Weather Next QPF map. 10:1 THAT would be 2.5-4 from the Plateau eastward, but we may be looking at 15:1 or 18:1 ratios.
  11. John1122
    It was the best from what I could tell and basically similar to what happened from 5+ days out. It seems to lock on and hold steady while others bounce around. It may have just gotten lucky. But it's 500mb verification scores are the best of all models this winter.
  12. John1122
    Weather Next would probably be 3-6 inches for most areas from maybe just each of Nashville and East, with 5-8 over far eastern areas.
  13. John1122
    It is pouring quarter + sized flakes out there right now. It's wringing every drop of moisture out. 2 very fluffy inches since last night.
  14. John1122
    It's on StormVista and I believe 12z comes out at 2pm.
  15. John1122
    I'm hoping the Google AI model doesn't move SE. It's been steady with at least 2-4 inches for more of the area, and 4-8 for parts.
  16. John1122
    The Canadian run that did so well for us, the vort is probably 75-100 miles SW of the Euro and it's stronger than the Euro. That little bit was the difference between 4-8 inches for most of East Tennessee and a couple of snow showers. It's a fine line. Hopefully everything is too far east currently, because if we needed it to be east it would truck west.
  17. John1122
    It's weaker and further east than 06z, so we end up dry.
  18. John1122
    The Euro is a whiff that run except for the Smokies/NE mountains.
  19. John1122
    SE shift by the Euro AI, I expect the Euro will follow. Hopefully it can work back this way but not holding my breath.
  20. John1122
    It's frigid, holding at 13 degrees with light snow.
  21. John1122
    That was about a 300 mile NW shift by the Canadian.
  22. John1122
    If this one doesn't trend NW, but not too far, it will truly be another epic failure. I saw a discussion about the NW trend being because models mistake something from range, I think it was something to do with sea temperatures maybe, that causes them to almost universally place systems too far SE. Which is why we see the NW trend constantlly.
  23. John1122
    There's a band actually showing up on radar that has been rolling over me for the last half hour. Sky is full of nickels, it looks foggy out.
  24. John1122
    ICON was decent for the East, 40 north, and still snowing at the end. It was possibly going where the other Models went at 0z. Everything is shifting NW but most of us may be too far west.
  25. John1122
    Nickels and quarters still flying. I've picked up a fluffy 3/4ths inch. Temp is 15. Its so dry a mouse fart will melt it tomorrow.
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