EasternLI
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Everything posted by EasternLI
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-PNA evaporated on the EPS at 12z
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To each their own, but I feel exactly how I felt yesterday TBH.
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Yeah, I mean you want to see a favorable pattern show up first. That doesn't mean it has to ever produce. However, what it does mean is that there's a higher chance of actually producing something. If models subsequently start showing snow events, they can be taken more seriously. When models show snow events without a favorable pattern, you can lean towards "forget about it". That's how "patterns" should be viewed.
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00z EPS looks a little bit better than yesterday for this IMO. With some better spacing from the ocean storm and a lean west of the members from the mean. -
Makes sense with the cross polar flow look setting up. Have you seen the arctic recently? Its frozen. I feel like we haven't seen that in forever. No open water to modify the airmass this year.
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Yup, the EPS has really come around. The GEFS doesn't disagree. Not even any hint of breaking anything down yet either. Doesn't look like a one chance wonder at all. Which is really nice. This is a 5 day mean.
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Same. And Same
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It's like a Jackson Pollock painting of shortwaves running around. Just going to have to stay alert. Next weekend window is a legit one IMO. Let's see what ensembles do, not just today, but as the week progresses. And if it doesn't work out, there's more opportunity ahead.
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Sorry for your loss snowman. Just remember that she's in a better place. Free from that terrible disease now.
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Yeah, it's an interesting situation. I'm not really sure what happens beyond this point. It's going to be very interesting to monitor moving forward. You would think it would circle back there at some point just going by past events. However, does the current climate care about past events? So it's interesting to think about.
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Yeah, potentially the most dramatic. Looks like that translated to the most negative PNA on record in December. Impressive stuff going on this year.
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Going to need to keep an eye on next weekend. Probably best to just keep paying attention from here on out TBH.
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Great post ^ Just wanted to add a supplemental visual example of the pattern advertised on overnight ensembles.
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This is from yesterday, but is another important factor to keep tabs on. It's an interesting aspect of what's going on.
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Split flow look out west. Can the STJ come out to play?
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This is a good example of why you can't just look at those numbers and try to draw too many conclusions. If you look at the big picture, this is a far far different situation shaping up.
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I wouldn't rule out something day 8-9 yet. Eps are Miller B ish looking. Don't think anything is going to stick out much from longer range right now. Just need to pay attention.
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Walt made a thread.
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Winding down now. 7.2" event total IMBY. Very pleased with this event.
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Still light snow here. Waiting for it to stop to get a final measurement.
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Yeah, I agree. This year has been fascinating and it continues to be.
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We take the Alaska ridging with the vortex in that position. The east based nature of the la Niña certainly keeps it interesting. It's going to be interesting to see how that plays into the rest of the season. If it were a more central based event, you could forget about it.
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Forget the teles, just have a look at this. Then, rest assured that the EPS is also headed in this direction. Because it is.
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5" and ripping
