Tyler Penland

GFS a few runs now with good NWF potential Sunday night. Saw a video of some flurries on Grandfather yesterday morning. Winter is coming quick.

Down to 55 outside. Welcome, fall, glad you made it. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

7.3" storm total rain about 10 miles south of Boone. Models missed by a few inches IMBY. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

3" on the nose today for a storm total of 7.3". Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Too warm. Plenty of nwf rain right now though. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Wind starting to pick up here on the west side of Boone. Big mess coming shortly I'm afraid. Rivers are gigantic. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Already 4.3" of rain from the flow ahead here just south of Boone. Lots of mountain flooding coming from this I'm afraid. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

4.3" already. Rivers are huge with plenty more to go. Things trending up with wind too. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Models not handling it very well, that's for sure. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

From what I've been on grandfather they're late. Starting to see some yellows but I'm afraid the big wind behind Michael is going to do some damage at the higher elevations along the Parkway. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Euro with some hefty wind gusts along the escarpment along/behind the front. Good bit of upslope rain too. Gonna be an interesting system. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Looks like a potential pattern change coming up soon. EPS with some gradual cooling heading into October. Already seeing some decent leaf change on Grandfather. Here's to another great winter!

4.75" in the bucket from yesterday. Just a touch over 5" storm total. Not bad. Definitely lucked out. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

It's almost comical how badly the HRRR is handling this upslope. Initializing with basically nothing over WNC even with moderate to heavy rain in place. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Picked up just under a half inch overnight. Radar filled in nicely to our west now. Gonna be a long day. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

First tropical shower rolling through. Pretty breezy at times but nothing over 20mph at best I'd say. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

...Flash Flooding Threat From Florence This Weekend Into Monday... .Hurricane Florence Will Slowly Track Inland Later Today Into Saturday Across South Carolina, Then Turn Northwest Across The Southern Appalachians Sunday, And Head Into The Central Appalachians Monday. With Soils Saturated Or Becoming Saturated, The Threat Of Flash Flooding Is Likely To Develop This Weekend Into Monday. ...Flash Flood Watch In Effect From Saturday Morning Through Monday Evening... The National Weather Service In Blacksburg Has Issued A * Flash Flood Watch For Portions Of North Carolina And Southwest Virginia, Including The Following Areas, In North Carolina, Alleghany Nc, Ashe, Caswell, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry, Watauga, Wilkes, And Yadkin. In Southwest Virginia, Carroll, Floyd, Grayson, And Patrick. * From Saturday Morning Through Monday Evening * Heavy Rain From Florence Will Lead To Flash Flooding Across The Area, Especially By Saturday Afternoon And Evening Into Monday. 5 To 10 Inches Of Rain Are Expected, With Locally Higher Amounts Of A Foot Or More Possible Along The Blue Ridge. * Life-Threatening Flash Flooding May Develop As Heavy Rain Bands Occur This Weekend Into Monday. Streams And Creeks May Rise Quickly During Heavy Rain And Flood. Larger Rivers Eventually May Rise To Flood Stage As Well. * Rainfall Of More Than Five Inches In Similar Storms Has Been Associated With An Increased Risk Of Landslides And Rock Slides. If You Live On A Mountainside Or In A Cove At The Base Of A Mountain...Especially Near A Stream...Be Ready To Leave In Advance Of The Storm Or As Quickly As Possible Should Rising Water...Moving Earth...Or Rocks Threaten. Consider Postponing Travel Along Mountain Roads During The Period Of Heavy Rainfall. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Anybody know how much above average Boone is? Nowdata shows about 20" but those records only go back to 1980. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Holy crap at the 18z gfs. Would be absolutely catastrophic for most of NC especially the mountains. Widespread foot of rain looks like from the tt maps. Maybe more. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

It's rained a TON in WNC this summer. Boone area just had flash flooding last night. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Linville river jumped to 5ft. Wouldn't at all be surprised to see if approach the 2004 levels if the track is right. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Right now pretty much every model dumps on WNC. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

They said they were doing so to allow students that live close to the coast to go help prepare. Lots of students up here from Raleigh and East. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

App State is suspending classes on Thu/Fri and all extracurricular stuff from Wednesday evening through Sunday evening.

Looks like 4-6+ on the TT maps for the FV3, but that would almost definitely be underdone in the SE facing escarpment areas. Strong, moist SE flow is the last thing you want to see and I wouldn't be surprised for some areas to see a foot or more. Only good news is that it's actually moving by then instead of just crawling.