dan11295

when is the last time anyone on the Cape got this much snow so late?

Btw, Really ugly right now in SC, damaging TOR's ongoing. Rough night in GA and TN as well, energetic system for sure.

Lead cell does look like it has weakened, finally

Hopefully cloud debris etc, can restrict heating. remember everything has to be right for a major event to happen. Obviously the potential is there. I suspect the SPC is a bit less gung ho due to combination of the CAM's being subdued past couple of days plus recently there were a couple of events where they went high risk of off the charts tornado probs that fortunately did not pan out.

As far as Freeport, I think you will find most of the damage there will be from surge. Western part of the city never got into the eye wall and it was weakening some before it got there.

When assessing damage, important to distinguish between surge and wind damage (there was a lot of both here) on Abacos. The building Josh was in was a brick school which was basically demolished with a few partial walls standing. No way Josh uses a building in a category 5 for shelter unless he feels its a strong structure. Also saw a video from someone in a car driving past what was clearly catastrophic wind damage. From aerials alone though it can be hard to distinguish though, especially since most stuff is low lying there.

I know Josh has been in many intense Hurricanes. Has he ever been in the eyewall of something this intense? He was not the in strongest winds of Michael, Patricia was a weakening 4, Haiyan was probably a 4 by the time it got to Tacloban City. I know Michael last year was the lower pressure he has actually recorded.

Still reporting, pressure dropped 1.3 mb in 10 minutes to 966 mb. Wind still NE

Without Guam radar, hard to tell how much of the eyewall Saipan is likely to get, Looks like Tinian is likely to have the eye go party over it.

Wonder much longer Saipan will continue to report obs. They are now Sustained NE 67 G 85 mph with pressure 978 mb

UK and EURO both hit same areas near ILM with heaviest rainfall, GFS is a bit northeast. EURO does not have the crazy totals that the GFS and UK have. Would take some very persistent traning with heavy bands to get what the UK/GFS are implying. But that stuff is somewhat storm structure dependent.

155k without power now. As said above I am sure a lot of weakened trees/branches are coming down

I think we can easily knock 3-4" off accumulations in SE Mass/Cape. Even here in Metrowest the roads are still wet. Looking at 5 am obs pretty much everyone is reporting snow, even ACK, but many temps are still above freezing making it tough to accumulate

I know they are moving it to another location, mainly because they realised that if the tornado was further south, If could have possibly hit both St. John's and Freeman (the other regional hospital in the area) at the same time.

No offense but I do not think Springfield tornado should compared to those other two events. It was a major event for this area but there is no comparision to the loss of life and degree of destructive that occurred.

Read this morning that another person has died due to injuries. Sad testament to the violent nature of this event. Have not read any estimates as to how many are still hospitalized though.

Unfortunately the death toll in Joplin may rise more due to those who are critically injured. We had two additional fatalites from the 4/27 storm in Tuscaloosa within the past week. One was a woman whose child died in the storm. She was admitted to the ICU and never recovered. The other was an elderly man who contracted pneumonia after getting wet in the storm.

As I listen to more and more interviews with regards to how people fared in commercial structures, if is more and more clear that buildings with freezers/coolers or similar structures within the building provided a generally effective means of shelter. CNN had an interviews with people in the Dillon's who it appears all survived by getting the the cooler. Similar story in the Pizza Hut, except for an employee who perished trying to keep the door closed from the outside. As we know sadly those in the "big box" stores did not far so well. Lack of addtiional enclosure combined with the larger concentration of people were likely both contributing factors.

Updated page from Springfield, MO NWS office on the tornado identifes 4 different location along the track where EF-5 damage was determined to have occurred. Appears EF-5 damage began near the hospital and continued until the eastern end of the Commercial/Industrial area on E 20th St. We should get a more detailed report in the coming days I imagine. I am sure they are being more thorough with this report than for most other events given the severity.

That would explain why the death toll jumped by 6 today. We can note that none of them were found in buildings. Makes me still hope that very few are still to be found. As far as the morgue, I imagine there reasoning is many of the bodies are probably in very bad shape, not readily identifiable. I understand the families want closure but if the winds are as strong as suggested above you can imagine what that could have done, without getting too gruesome on here. So they are getting them identified via other means then cleaning them first then releasing them at that point.

I am guessing one reason there was little ground scouring was that the winds, although strong at the ground surface were not able to travel unimpeded over soil for enough distance. i.e. Almost all areas where strongest winds occurred were developed. Also I don't think all EF-5's produce scouring. Ability to scour also depends on soil type and shape of the landscape I imagine. It is much easier to scour a plowed field then lawn. an 4/9/11 EF-1 in Souix Falls was able to scour a plowed field

I was looking for what the Max. estimates speeds were in the other EF-5's? I know from last month: Hackleburg, AL: 210 Philadelphia, MS: 205 Smithville, MS 205 Not sure about Parkersburg or Greensburg

Glad to hear you are O.K. Really telling to know even though you were following the situation very closely and saw the couplet on radar before you took shelter, because the storm intensified so rapidly you did not realize the severity of the storm until afterwords. From that and other accounts many people did not know a tornado was upon them until the began to see debris. Yes they heard the sirens but they may not have thought too much of them. On a sad note they are still finding more victims. Toll has risen to 132.

They are having structural engineers look at the building. My guess is it will need a lot of work but they wont have to demolish the entire structure.

It is very clear this is a matter of very bad luck. Tornado developed quickly, becoming large violent and rain wrapped just it is is moving into a densely populated area where the surrounding area is mostly farmland.