dan11295

One thing I am curious about is hospitalizations bottomed out at about the same level (+/-1000 roughly) in June and September. Yet Average deaths were down to 550/day in June but didn't go below 700/day in September. Seems like too much of a difference to just be noise. Don't know why that ratio would be higher now.

Looks like we are catching more cases compared to July at least with more testing and lower positive rates and relative numbers of hospitalized/case ratio compared to then. Obviously the trends are still bad.

Looking at state trends, Illinois and Texas are both a bit problematic: Illinois had almost 5,000 cases today, hospitalizations up 50% in two weeks from 1650 to 2460. Texas has had 6,000+ cases past 2 days. El Paso in particular has major problems, 1800 cases in 2 days. Texas statewide Hospitalizations also up ~50% from 3200 to 4900 in 2 weeks, they didn't keep their numbers down for long after the summer spike. Of course many other states are also seeing hospital numbers jump. Indiana is at record hospital numbers etc. Only states keeps numbers from going completely haywire is CA and FL. cases/hospital numbers there have been pretty stable

Northeast states are slowly but steadily rising too, had 1,000 cases here in MA for the first time since just before Memorial Day. Seeing similar pattern in NY, NJ, CT, RI, NH.

Not just Germany, pretty much every county in Europe's is spiking rather hard, save for Finland and a couple other small countries.

This may have been part of Europe's problem as well regarding the fatigue issue. In general they were more strict with their lockdowns in the spring than anything in the U.S. They got their numbers very low (unlike the U.S.) and got complacent. Regarding Wisconsin, they (and the Dakotas as well), were at higher risk for a surge due to lower percentage of the population being exposed compared to the deep south and northeast. The North Dakota situation in particular shows that having a lower population density only protects you so much. I am sure many people there thought "it's never going to be a problem here",

Any guess on now many more storms we get this season? Two more would tie 2005 (one unnamed storm was added post-season in 2005).

Without a vaccine, eventually enough population gets exposed for (at least partial) herd immunity in the short to medium term (2-3 years). Longer term, the virus would most likely become endemic and more adapted to humans resulting in generally more benign effects. A vaccine is very unlikely to eradicate it like smallpox. Most likely scenario is vaccine combined with exposure in the population will get us toward herd immunity levels by later 2021. Vaccination will not have a real impact for this winter unfortunately. Even with approvals late year and some vaccine dosages available, it will take time to distribute with the cold storage requirements and get a meaningful percentage to the population to get it.

What is happening in the Upper Midwest is is some ways comparable to some of the eastern European countries. In both cases transmission rates were partially kept very much in check by limited travel occurring from existing hot spots combined with distancing to some degree or another. As people became complacent they believed it wouldn't be become a problem and that allowed more cases to be introduced in the communities and caused infection rates to jump.

Case numbers in the US always follow a weekly pattern, with Friday as highest and Sunday lowest. Still a big jump from last Friday Couple of observations comparing the case, hospitalization and average deaths between last June- early July and now: First there are less reported hospitalizations relative to caseload, compared to the summer. Presumably do to testing more and catching more cases. But the 7-day average deaths are still above the average back in June (700 vs 550), despite reported hospitalizations being basically identical. Don't have a theory on why that is the case. In Addition to Wisconsin mentioned above, North Dakota in particular is really doing bad. They get ignored due to small raw numbers, but per capita its terrible. >0.1% of their population was reported positive today alone!

Unlike the spring, eastern Europe is also being significant impacted now. 8,000 cases in Poland today, almost 10k in Czechia yesterday.

The fact that India/Southern Hemisphere is going down in cases combined with the spikes across board in Europe, Canada and U.S. Midwest argues strongly for a seasonal component (India flu season has a peak coinciding with the monsoon in many areas of the country and cases are going down despite reopening more of their economy).

In terms of severity, Covid is not in the same league as Spanish Flu, primarily due to the W-shaped mortality curve and higher observed mortality rates mentioned above. Besides these facts, its hard to make estimates how the numbers for both pandemics would be different if Covid was in 1918 and Spanish Flu occurred now. In general, populations are older now with more of the comorbidities that make them more vulnerable to Covid, but medical care has much advanced since 1918.

Sounds like the winds on the west side of Delta over performed a bit. extreme SE TX had many reports of 80-90+ gusts

Appears from power outage map the impacts were felt over a fairly broad area, even if obviously less severe than Laura. 30% of East BR Parish has no power, so does 30% of Jefferson County in Texas.

Lake Charles reported a 95 mph wind gust apparently about an hour ago. As far as the shape, the shear certainly did a number on it.

I wonder how well all that plywood will hold up on the Capital One Building in Lake Charles. As mentioned above, you have a lot of compromised structures in that area. This is very similar to the Frances/Jeanne situation in Florida, two different hurricanes making landfall in almost the same spot.

Which is a good thing, SW LA has already had 1 major hurricane this year, they certainly didn't need another. As it is this is very disruptive to anyone in that area trying to recover from Laura.

This wasn't a cat 3 at 10 am. Core will be coming ashore in 2-3 hours. 963 mb 110 mph at 1 pm. Still think that is generous.

What kind of winds can blue roofs withstand? Many damaged homes in the Lake Charles area have them at the moment. 47 mph gust at LCH last hour. 4-5' surge currently in SW LA. You see the effects of the dry air and shear eroding the core. I think a high Cat 1 in reality at landfall is most likely. Northern eyewall is ~4-5 hours from land maybe. Last recon was 966 mb w/25 kt wind, so 963-964 mb. SFMR would support 80-85 kt

sustained TS winds at Galveston last hour. As has been stated before, probably more of a surge threat ultimately, though you will have a lot of power outages, TS/Cat 1 type damage from large wind field. Doubt you get any sustained Hurricane winds reported on land with weakening storm and no stations at landfall point.

Seems like it is going a bit west of track? Yet to start moving east of north per radar. That turn should be occurring very shortly.

Pressure is already up to 960mb with luck we can get even more weakening than forecast prior to landfall. Wont matter too much for surge but would mitigate some of the wind obviously.

This will be your "classic" half-a-cane at landfall for sure. Winds don't get to the surface as well in weakening storms, so you probably won't see the type of structural damage you saw with Sally. Also going to be very few populated areas near the immediate landfall point, unlike with Sally.

Seems to really be an outlier with regards to intensity. 6z HMON gets down to 950mb with a 960 mb landfall 6z HWRF also gets down to 950mb with 955mb landfall. Realistically only has ~18 hours of favorable conditions left for intensification ~1mb/hr would get you to 950mb but that is probably pushing it as core has yet to fully consolidate.