dan11295

Masks are not going to protect you 100%, especially if you are in close contact with someone indoors for hours with poor ventilation. Even in that situation they can reduce viral load though,

Illinois is rapidly approaching their April hospitalization peak (5036). They are now at 4742 (+1178 last 7 days). Most other states in the region are also seeing rapid spikes in hospitalizations. Very few states in US not with increasing hospitalizations. Nationwide hospital numbers 61,964 (+2690). Most summer spike hot spots in the south are now trending up again. Suggests that while generally cooler weather driving people indoors may have put "fuel on the fire" in some areas esp. in north, that is not only case driver. . (Note: much of US has seen abnormally warm temps past week wonder if that helps drop the transmission rate some. With sun setting early w/cooler evening temps, people are still going to be driven indoors in evening. This combined with high levels of community spread already may limit any benefit. Region is going back to normal temps in a couple of days.)

At least Theta isn't a U.S. threat. Having Eta and Theta active at the same time is confusing enough as it is.

Yeah 97L probably gets named today. Gotta watch the Caribbean again too.

Many of them are becoming very burned out from working excessive hours plus stress etc. The ICU patients in particular require constant care w/multiple workers while in full PPE etc.

Numbers are already up 25k+ week on week...... Obviously the summer spike came to an abrupt plateau in the middle in July, With such a broad nationwide spike and no real mitigation yet don't know how this happens here very soon. Our current avg cases/per capita is about equal to the UK right now. (both countries are probably catching similar percent of causes as the 21-day time lagged CFR numbers are similar for both countries (1.7% for the U.S. and 2.0% for the UK) The difference is they have gone back into lockdown and have plateaued in cases. We are basically trying to do what Russia is trying to do right now which is avoid shutting things back down.

Keys could get a landfalling hurricane here..lol Would think they have to issue a Hurricane warning for the Keys with those obs. Also if Eta recurves back into FL will it just a TS falling apart? This is November...

URNT15 KWBC 081419 NOAA2 1329A ETA HDOB 11 20201108 141000 2252N 07848W 8430 01466 9968 +183 +164 134027 029 039 000 00 141030 2251N 07846W 8430 01464 9966 +184 +164 140028 029 040 000 00 141100 2251N 07845W 8428 01466 9960 +194 +161 142033 034 039 000 00 141130 2250N 07843W 8430 01462 9958 +196 +159 146033 035 040 000 00 141200 2250N 07841W 8431 01460 9958 +193 +167 144035 036 044 000 00 141230 2249N 07839W 8431 01458 9959 +188 +170 151034 036 045 000 00 141300 2249N 07838W 8431 01460 9962 +185 +171 159038 039 047 000 00 141330 2248N 07836W 8432 01462 9964 +186 +169 169038 039 047 000 00 141400 2247N 07834W 8428 01471 9969 +185 +167 169040 040 048 000 00 141430 2247N 07832W 8428 01474 9971 +187 +168 170040 041 049 000 00 141500 2246N 07830W 8426 01477 9978 +178 +168 173041 042 049 000 00 141530 2246N 07828W 8432 01470 9983 +170 //// 178046 048 052 001 01 141600 2245N 07827W 8424 01479 9985 +170 //// 181047 049 052 001 01 141630 2245N 07825W 8431 01481 9988 +171 //// 184047 049 053 001 01 141700 2244N 07823W 8416 01495 9992 +169 //// 182052 054 054 002 01 141730 2243N 07821W 8417 01494 9995 +163 //// 182056 061 055 009 01 141800 2243N 07819W 8429 01485 0004 +151 //// 180066 069 057 008 01 141830 2242N 07818W 8417 01499 0008 +153 //// 180063 064 059 003 01 141900 2242N 07816W 8418 01500 0010 +162 //// 178065 070 057 003 01 141930 2241N 07814W 8432 01495 0012 +167 +161 188066 070 057 004 00 996 mb extrap 70 kt fl 59 kt SFMR. Weird because NHC had it at 50 kt before crossing Cuba. Also looks like 12z model output came N some.

I am curious what percent of cases are actually getting caught with tests. Dr. Scottlieb on CNBC suggesting it was only 25%. If that is true then 25%+ of North Dakota has now been exposed, as 6.7% of the state has been tested positive. They are currently testing 0.2% of their pop positive every day!

Finished with 118k but no Missouri (Kansas reported every other day during the weekdays). Last two weeks have seen a clear acceleration of case growth. Today was 26k above last Thursday, which was 18k above the Thursday before. This kind of trajectory cannot continue without major strains on health care systems in many areas (it already is in some areas).

Can add 4400 in Indiana. Also outside of this forum area but the numbers of the Dakotas are really bad when you consider their population. SD 1360 cases 22 deaths ND 1536 cases 29 deaths (I wonder what % of cases are being caught 6.5% of ND has now tested positive)

The major spike started in the upper Midwest, and has now spread through most of the West, Plains & OH Valley. Northeast is steadily climbing now. The interior Southeast and CA are about the only areas relatively stable for now.

People are kind of done with the tropics I sense, plus its kind of not doing anything at the moment.

only 297 were new, rest were from a while ago. Regardless Europe has major problems, new daily hospital admissions in France were 3700 yesterday, not far below their Spring peak of 4300.

Some great fall weather coming up for rest of this week.

All states in Midwest (WI, MI, IL, OH, IN) have seen significant jumps in hospital numbers past few days, PA rising steadily as well now.

Pretty sure the answer is no, for many reasons. Horrible area to chase, don't even know if foreigners can enter right now etc.

People have to remember that these cases are from people getting exposed 10-14 days ago on average. 5-6 days for symptoms, 1-2 days to get the test, then 3-7 days on average to get it back (this number can vary based on type of test and setting (hospital vs test site, etc.)

In one city that may not be a hot spot. The trends of the all metrics in the state as a whole are up.

Remember at the 1 am advisory NHC had Eta as a tropical storm

Not sure I would go <900 mb. No question this is a Cat 5. 915 135 kt

I direct hit on the only population center in the area would be unfortunately, luckily not a whole lot of other population centers in that area. Hopefully most of the fain falls in the swamps.

http://meteorologia.aerocivil.gov.co/radar/loop/aoi/ADZ/Reflectividad de Base 0.5 deg Eyewall visible on radar from San Andres Island Good news is the general landfall area is sparsely populated.

Evaluation is certainly unusual. Brings circulation of Eta back over water North of Honduras brings to NE almost to Cuba where it gets blocked by the ridge, pushed southwest a bit before getting picked up by the trough. Of course we are talking 10 days in the future and a lot is dependent on what happens with Eta after CA Landfall. If the circulation dies over land it may be moot.

Some states don't report on weekends anymore (CT/RI). But Michigan and Nebraska had numbers last Sunday but not today. With those who it would have 74-75k most likely. Last few Sundays have been up ~10k compared to last, so trend has not changed, or even accelerated slightly