I've been saying to friends that 2-4 Snow/Sleet and then glacier with freezing drizzle afterwards. They are on me now with the warning text of 3-6 but im holding strong here in the Arlington/DC area.
Trajectory of the precip from the SW on the 3k was better as well. It just doesn't send as much through the area before the column issues arise. 6z had it into PA.
Seems like a precip issue to me than a "warmer" issue. Its not nearly as wet through 15z as the 12k. 700 winds looked to have backed off quite a bit as well compared to 6z. has about half the precip as the 3k has during the time when the column is supportive.
It's all about that initial slug of WAA. That's the snow. HRRRRRRRR directs it right into the metros, some take it north, some take it south. Our accumulating snow chances are between 4am-10am.
Now you're trying too hard. Please link me to a LWX discussion where they EVER weigh those two. As someone said, the UKIE is great at nailing troughs in Islamabad but synoptically, its never trusted.