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LP08

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Everything posted by LP08

  1. LP08
    Sure hope my temp sensor is running high. 42/31 for a sweet wetbulb of 36
  2. LP08
    0.25 total precip in DC through 12z Friday. and even worse the further south you go. GFS has been steadfast on central VA precip hole.
  3. LP08
    Something that I've learned/but don't practice enough is that the NAM/3k are very good are finding warm noses throughout the column. The almost always end up slightly further north than even what they show. RGEM now shows the warm nose at 12z for us in DC area.
  4. LP08
    For the Saturday storm Nam is mighty close to starting as snow for a lot of people, and colder than other guidance. I know nam at range but it seems to be sniffing the warm nose out for tonight.
  5. LP08
    It's frustrating honestly. I know it was on an Island but no terribly so. The euro and EPS were honking pretty loud for an event at 90 hours! In years past, that seemed to be a great spot. What good is the EPS if at 90 hours, showing a max precip stripe through the area with buffer on both sides only to completely go the other way only 24hrs later. I know i know, blend everything but frustrating, especially for us near and south of DC.
  6. LP08
    At this rate, you might need to borrow some of "Dan the Mans" tears to melt your snow up there .
  7. LP08
    3k is no good for the DC area (sorry for the focus there). Clicking through soundings it never drops below 34 and has an even more pronounced warm nose further up.
  8. LP08
    Nam wetter but its ice even into MD.
  9. LP08
    24 hours on the euro total precip. To state the obvious, tonight has turned into the main event and sadly for central va, it’s going the wrong way.
  10. LP08
    This is just west of dc tonight on the nam. This doesn’t seem like an overwhelming warm nose to me on the sounding so maybe just some crappy flakes instead of sleet?
  11. LP08
    If my memory serves me, these did well with our last storm.
  12. LP08
    It’s better west but ever the cities crash and flip to snow.
  13. LP08
    162 is pretty sweet
  14. LP08
    The gfs certainly doesn’t look like DTs map that’s for sure. Zero snow south of EZF.
  15. LP08
    Gfs has 0.15 in dc through 1pm Thursday. That, won’t get it done for wave 1
  16. LP08
    Definite expanse of the total precip on the northern edge. Hard to tell but maybe 0.3 from wave 2 up to dc.
  17. LP08
    It’s a slight bump but a bump north.
  18. LP08
    Slightly better heights with less suppression over the NE. Wave 2 looks like it will be a little bit north to my eyes.
  19. LP08
    I suppose this could be overcome with rates. It’s not a terribly large warm layer.
  20. LP08
    Let’s hope that warm nose is wrong for the dc area folks. Certainly wetter fist wave.
  21. LP08
    Quicker onset tomorrow evening. Warm nose pushing north to dc at 27.
  22. LP08
    It’s early and subtle but through 21, Nam is less suppressive than 18z.
  23. LP08
    I think I’ve read somewhere that storm vista snow maps count everything falling at 32 and below snow so it catches a ton of sleet in those maps.
  24. LP08
    I’ve never seen the icon ever put that much snow over the region.
  25. LP08
    EPS total qpf. Wetter than the OP but drier than 6z.
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